- The Braves (53-37) are -250 favorites vs the Nationals (30-60)
- Braves starting pitcher: Kyle Wright (10-4), 2.97 ERA
- Nationals starting pitcher: Aníbal Sánchez (-), – ERA
- Watch the game on MASN
The Atlanta Braves (-250) visit Nationals Park to take on the Washington Nationals (+200) on Thursday, July 14, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05pm EDT in Washington.
The Braves are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -2.5 (-105).
The Braves vs Nationals Over/Under is 9.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Braves are 53-37 against the spread (ATS), while the Nationals are 38-52 ATS.
Braves vs. Nationals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Braves | -2.5 -105 | O 9.5 -105 | -250 |
| Nationals | +2.5 -115 | U 9.5 -115 | +200 |
Braves vs Nationals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Thursday‘s matchup with 51.0% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Braves and Nationals and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Braves Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Dansby Swanson has hit the Hits Over in 48 of his last 76 games (+19.60 Units / 17% ROI)
- Austin Riley has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 14 games (+15.65 Units / 75% ROI)
- Matt Olson has hit the Runs Under in 49 of his last 75 games (+14.55 Units / 14% ROI)
- Matt Olson has hit the Singles Under in 53 of his last 78 games (+13.90 Units / 11% ROI)
- Dansby Swanson has hit the Singles Over in 45 of his last 78 games (+13.80 Units / 16% ROI)
Best Nationals Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Josh Bell has hit the RBIs Under in 19 of his last 22 games (+13.10 Units / 29% ROI)
- Josh Bell has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 22 games (+11.65 Units / 35% ROI)
- Juan Soto has hit the Total Bases Over in his last 7 games (+8.25 Units / 85% ROI)
- Juan Soto has hit the Runs Over in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 79% ROI)
- Juan Soto has hit the Hits Over in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 48% ROI)
Nationals vs Braves Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Cesar Hernandez | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Josh Bell | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -750 |
| Juan Soto | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
| Keibert Ruiz | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Luis Garcia | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -2000 |
Nationals vs Braves Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Cesar Hernandez | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +185 |
| Josh Bell | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +190 |
| Juan Soto | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +130 |
| Keibert Ruiz | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +135 |
| Luis Garcia | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
Nationals vs Braves RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Cesar Hernandez | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
| Josh Bell | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -250 |
| Juan Soto | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -275 |
| Keibert Ruiz | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -300 |
| Luis Garcia | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
Nationals vs Braves Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Anibal Sanchez | 3.5 -155 | 3.5 +110 |
| Kyle Wright | 4.5 -115 | 4.5 -125 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Braves Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 44 of their last 64 games (+20.77 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 30 of their last 40 games (+14.50 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 25 of their last 38 away games (+10.25 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 17 of their last 24 games (+9.25 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 42 of their last 78 games (+8.65 Units / 10% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Nationals: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 45 of their last 77 games (+13.00 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Under in 15 of their last 23 games (+7.60 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 3 of their last 5 games (+1.00 Units / 18% ROI)
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 46-44 against the Run Line (-1.45 Units / -1.27% ROI).
- 53-37 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.8 Units / 1.25% ROI
- 43-44 when betting on the total runs Over for -5 Units / -5.05% ROI
- 44-43 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.35 Units / -3.38% ROI
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 38-52 against the Run Line (-22.1 Units / -19.79% ROI).
- 30-60 when betting on the Moneyline for -20.95 Units / -22.22% ROI
- 44-42 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.2 Units / -2.2% ROI
- 42-44 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.75 Units / -5.84% ROI
Kyle Wright: Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Kyle Wright had a first-pitch strike rate of 93% (27/29) — highest in MLB over the last week; League Avg: 62% — 100th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 59% (80/136) against Kyle Wright this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 96th Percentile.
The last hit on a Kyle Wright changeup was June 12nd. Hitters are 0 for their last 21 in ABs ending on his changeup. — this is the longest active streak among active MLB players.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 56% (60/107) against Kyle Wright in two-strike counts this season — 6th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — 92nd Percentile.
Aníbal Sánchez: Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
No Matchup notes for this Game
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Braves are 21-3 (.875) when scoring in the first inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .661.
The Braves are 5-3 (.625) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Braves are 22-6 (.786) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — tied for 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .712.
The Braves are 46-13 (.780) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .702.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Nationals are just 9-55 (.141) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .298.
The Nationals are just 14-33 (.298) at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .523.
The Nationals are just 101-16 (.863) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .914.
The Nationals are just 23-5 (.821) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .886.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
Braves hitters are slugging .720 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .566.
Braves hitters have 224 extra-base hits out of 523 total hits (43%) against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
Braves hitters have 266 extra-base hits out of 630 total hits (42%) against LHP since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
The Braves are batting .249 with two outs since the start of last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .232.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
Nationals have grounded 249 double plays since the start of last season — most in MLB.
Nationals hitters have an OBP of .342 (2,930 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .320.
Nationals hitters have grounded into 42 double plays in 307 opportunities (14%) in close and late situations since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Nationals hitters have grounded into 249 double plays in 1,861 opportunities (13%) since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
Braves pitchers have picked-off 9 runners from first base this season — best in MLB.
Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 29% when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Braves pitchers have walked 75 of 812 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
Nationals pitchers have an ERA of 5.74 (364.0 IP) on the road this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.14.
The Nationals have won just 20% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
The Nationals have won just 19% of games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.
Nationals pitchers have allowed a run 36% of the time after an opposing score since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 30%.
Nationals vs. Braves Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Víctor Arano (Nationals): Knee, D15
- Joseph Ross (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Stephen Strasburg (Nationals): Ribs, D60
- Seth Romero (Nationals): Calf, D60
- William Harris (Nationals): Pectoral, D60
- Joshua Rogers (Nationals): Shoulder, D15
- Jackson Tetreault (Nationals): Shoulder, D60
- Tanner Rainey (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Evan Lee (Nationals): Flexor, D15
- Carter Kieboom (Nationals): Forearm, D60
- Reed Garrett (Nationals): Biceps, D15
- Sean Doolittle (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Ozhanio Albies (Braves): Foot, D60
- Darren O’Day (Braves): Calf, D15
- Kirby Yates (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Michael Soroka (Braves): Achilles, D60
- Manuel Piña (Braves): Wrist, D60
- Luke Jackson (Braves): Elbow, D60
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