Braves vs Nationals Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jul 14

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jul 14, 2022, 3:35 PM
  • The Braves (53-37) are -250 favorites vs the Nationals (30-60)
  • Braves starting pitcher: Kyle Wright (10-4), 2.97 ERA
  • Nationals starting pitcher: Aníbal Sánchez (-), ERA
  • Watch the game on MASN

The Atlanta Braves (-250) visit Nationals Park to take on the Washington Nationals (+200) on Thursday, July 14, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05pm EDT in Washington.

The Braves are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -2.5 (-105).

The Braves vs Nationals Over/Under is 9.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Braves are 53-37 against the spread (ATS), while the Nationals are 38-52 ATS.

Braves vs. Nationals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Braves-2.5 -105O 9.5 -105-250
Nationals +2.5 -115U 9.5 -115+200

Braves vs Nationals Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Thursday‘s matchup with 51.0% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Braves and Nationals and up-to-date player injuries.


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Best Braves Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Dansby Swanson has hit the Hits Over in 48 of his last 76 games (+19.60 Units / 17% ROI)
  • Austin Riley has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 14 games (+15.65 Units / 75% ROI)
  • Matt Olson has hit the Runs Under in 49 of his last 75 games (+14.55 Units / 14% ROI)
  • Matt Olson has hit the Singles Under in 53 of his last 78 games (+13.90 Units / 11% ROI)
  • Dansby Swanson has hit the Singles Over in 45 of his last 78 games (+13.80 Units / 16% ROI)

Best Nationals Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Josh Bell has hit the RBIs Under in 19 of his last 22 games (+13.10 Units / 29% ROI)
  • Josh Bell has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 22 games (+11.65 Units / 35% ROI)
  • Juan Soto has hit the Total Bases Over in his last 7 games (+8.25 Units / 85% ROI)
  • Juan Soto has hit the Runs Over in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 79% ROI)
  • Juan Soto has hit the Hits Over in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 48% ROI)

Nationals vs Braves Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Cesar Hernandez 0.5 +700 0.5 -2500
Josh Bell 0.5 +400 0.5 -750
Juan Soto 0.5 +425 0.5 -800
Keibert Ruiz 0.5 +575 0.5 -1400
Luis Garcia 0.5 +625 0.5 -2000

Nationals vs Braves Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Cesar Hernandez 0.5 -275 0.5 +185
Josh Bell 0.5 -275 0.5 +190
Juan Soto 0.5 -190 0.5 +130
Keibert Ruiz 0.5 -200 0.5 +135
Luis Garcia 0.5 -250 0.5 +175

Nationals vs Braves RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Cesar Hernandez 0.5 +230 0.5 -350
Josh Bell 0.5 +170 0.5 -250
Juan Soto 0.5 +190 0.5 -275
Keibert Ruiz 0.5 +195 0.5 -300
Luis Garcia 0.5 +175 0.5 -250

Nationals vs Braves Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Anibal Sanchez 3.5 -155 3.5 +110
Kyle Wright 4.5 -115 4.5 -125
  • The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 44 of their last 64 games (+20.77 Units / 26% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 30 of their last 40 games (+14.50 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 25 of their last 38 away games (+10.25 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 17 of their last 24 games (+9.25 Units / 35% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 42 of their last 78 games (+8.65 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 45 of their last 77 games (+13.00 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Under in 15 of their last 23 games (+7.60 Units / 30% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 3 of their last 5 games (+1.00 Units / 18% ROI)

Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 46-44 against the Run Line (-1.45 Units / -1.27% ROI).

  • 53-37 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.8 Units / 1.25% ROI
  • 43-44 when betting on the total runs Over for -5 Units / -5.05% ROI
  • 44-43 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.35 Units / -3.38% ROI

Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 38-52 against the Run Line (-22.1 Units / -19.79% ROI).

  • 30-60 when betting on the Moneyline for -20.95 Units / -22.22% ROI
  • 44-42 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.2 Units / -2.2% ROI
  • 42-44 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.75 Units / -5.84% ROI

Kyle Wright had a first-pitch strike rate of 93% (27/29) — highest in MLB over the last week; League Avg: 62% — 100th Percentile.

Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 59% (80/136) against Kyle Wright this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 96th Percentile.

The last hit on a Kyle Wright changeup was June 12nd. Hitters are 0 for their last 21 in ABs ending on his changeup. — this is the longest active streak among active MLB players.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 56% (60/107) against Kyle Wright in two-strike counts this season — 6th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — 92nd Percentile.

Aníbal Sánchez: Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

No Matchup notes for this Game

Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals

The Braves are 21-3 (.875) when scoring in the first inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .661.

The Braves are 5-3 (.625) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Braves are 22-6 (.786) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — tied for 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .712.

The Braves are 46-13 (.780) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .702.

Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Braves

The Nationals are just 9-55 (.141) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .298.

The Nationals are just 14-33 (.298) at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .523.

The Nationals are just 101-16 (.863) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .914.

The Nationals are just 23-5 (.821) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .886.

Braves hitters are slugging .720 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .566.

Braves hitters have 224 extra-base hits out of 523 total hits (43%) against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 35%.

Braves hitters have 266 extra-base hits out of 630 total hits (42%) against LHP since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 36%.

The Braves are batting .249 with two outs since the start of last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .232.

Nationals have grounded 249 double plays since the start of last season — most in MLB.

Nationals hitters have an OBP of .342 (2,930 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .320.

Nationals hitters have grounded into 42 double plays in 307 opportunities (14%) in close and late situations since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

Nationals hitters have grounded into 249 double plays in 1,861 opportunities (13%) since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.

Braves pitchers have picked-off 9 runners from first base this season — best in MLB.

Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 29% when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Braves pitchers have walked 75 of 812 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Nationals pitchers have an ERA of 5.74 (364.0 IP) on the road this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.14.

The Nationals have won just 20% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.

The Nationals have won just 19% of games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.

Nationals pitchers have allowed a run 36% of the time after an opposing score since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 30%.

Nationals vs. Braves Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Víctor Arano (Nationals): Knee, D15
  • Joseph Ross (Nationals): Elbow, D60
  • Stephen Strasburg (Nationals): Ribs, D60
  • Seth Romero (Nationals): Calf, D60
  • William Harris (Nationals): Pectoral, D60
  • Joshua Rogers (Nationals): Shoulder, D15
  • Jackson Tetreault (Nationals): Shoulder, D60
  • Tanner Rainey (Nationals): Elbow, D60
  • Evan Lee (Nationals): Flexor, D15
  • Carter Kieboom (Nationals): Forearm, D60
  • Reed Garrett (Nationals): Biceps, D15
  • Sean Doolittle (Nationals): Elbow, D60
  • Ozhanio Albies (Braves): Foot, D60
  • Darren O’Day (Braves): Calf, D15
  • Kirby Yates (Braves): Elbow, D60
  • Michael Soroka (Braves): Achilles, D60
  • Manuel Piña (Braves): Wrist, D60
  • Luke Jackson (Braves): Elbow, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.