Braves vs Nationals Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jul 16

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jul 16, 2022, 3:35 PM
  • The Braves (55-37) are -250 favorites vs the Nationals (30-62)
  • Braves starting pitcher: Max Fried (9-3), 2.56 ERA
  • Nationals starting pitcher: Paolo Espino (0-2), 3.41 ERA
  • Watch the game on MASN

The Atlanta Braves (-250) visit Nationals Park to take on the Washington Nationals (+195) on Saturday, July 16, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 4:05pm EDT in Washington.

The Braves are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -2.5 (+105).

The Braves vs Nationals Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Braves are 55-37 against the spread (ATS), while the Nationals are 39-53 ATS.

Braves vs. Nationals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Braves-2.5 +105O 8.5 -105-250
Nationals +2.5 -125U 8.5 -115+195

Braves vs Nationals Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Saturday‘s matchup with 50.1% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Braves and Nationals and up-to-date player injuries.


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Best Braves Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Ronald Acuna Jr. has hit the RBIs Under in 27 of his last 31 games (+20.50 Units / 37% ROI)
  • Dansby Swanson has hit the Hits Over in 48 of his last 78 games (+17.60 Units / 15% ROI)
  • Austin Riley has hit the Hits Over in 32 of his last 49 games (+16.10 Units / 20% ROI)
  • Matt Olson has hit the Singles Under in 54 of his last 80 games (+13.65 Units / 10% ROI)
  • Dansby Swanson has hit the Singles Over in 46 of his last 80 games (+13.45 Units / 15% ROI)

Best Nationals Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Juan Soto has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 22 games (+13.60 Units / 45% ROI)
  • Josh Bell has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 16 games at home (+12.75 Units / 40% ROI)
  • Josh Bell has hit the RBIs Under in 20 of his last 24 games (+11.45 Units / 23% ROI)
  • Victor Robles has hit the Singles Over in 12 of his last 17 games at home (+11.40 Units / 67% ROI)
  • Nelson Cruz has hit the Total Bases Under in 15 of his last 18 games at home (+11.00 Units / 39% ROI)

Nationals vs Braves Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Cesar Hernandez 0.5 +625 0.5 -2000
Josh Bell 0.5 +525 0.5 -1200
Juan Soto 0.5 +450 0.5 -900
Lane Thomas 0.5 +500 0.5 -1100
Maikel Franco 0.5 +600 0.5 -1600

Nationals vs Braves Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Cesar Hernandez 0.5 -250 0.5 +175
Josh Bell 0.5 -250 0.5 +165
Juan Soto 0.5 -250 0.5 +170
Lane Thomas 0.5 -250 0.5 +160
Maikel Franco 0.5 -165 0.5 +120

Nationals vs Braves RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Cesar Hernandez 0.5 +220 0.5 -350
Josh Bell 0.5 +165 0.5 -250
Juan Soto 0.5 +190 0.5 -275
Lane Thomas 0.5 +220 0.5 -350
Maikel Franco 0.5 +210 0.5 -350

Nationals vs Braves Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Paolo Espino 3.5 -115 3.5 -120
Max Fried 4.5 -150 4.5 +105
  • The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 46 of their last 66 games (+22.77 Units / 28% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 32 of their last 42 games (+16.50 Units / 21% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 39 of their last 59 games (+10.05 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 18 of their last 26 games (+9.10 Units / 32% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 19 of their last 28 away games (+9.00 Units / 24% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 47 of their last 79 games (+15.00 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Under in 16 of their last 25 games (+7.45 Units / 27% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 4 of their last 6 games (+2.05 Units / 30% ROI)

Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 47-45 against the Run Line (-1.85 Units / -1.59% ROI).

  • 55-37 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.8 Units / 2.57% ROI
  • 44-45 when betting on the total runs Over for -5.2 Units / -5.13% ROI
  • 45-44 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.5 Units / -3.46% ROI

Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 39-53 against the Run Line (-22.05 Units / -19.37% ROI).

  • 30-62 when betting on the Moneyline for -22.95 Units / -23.83% ROI
  • 45-43 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.4 Units / -2.34% ROI
  • 43-45 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.9 Units / -5.87% ROI

Max Fried has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 73.7 MPH on pitches out of the zone since the start of last season (128 balls in play) — tied for best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 125 total IP; League Avg: 80.3

34 of Max Fried’s breaking pitch strikeouts are backdoor on breaking pitches since the start of last season — 2nd most in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 125 total IP; League Avg: nan — 99th Percentile.

10 of Max Fried’s 47 breaking pitch strikeouts (21%) have been backdoor this season — 6th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 12% — 90th Percentile.

Max Fried has allowed an OPS of just .392 (221 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — 10th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .475 — 86th Percentile.

Paolo Espino: Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Paolo Espino has allowed a slugging percentage of .955 (21 Total Bases / 22 ABs) on low fastballs this season — highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: .387 — 0 Percentile.

Opponents are hitting .250 (26-for-104) against Paolo Espino with two-strikes this season — 2nd highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: .156 — first Percentile.

Paolo Espino has allowed a slugging percentage of .375 (39 Total Bases / 104 ABs) with two-strikes this season — 4th highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: .237 — third Percentile.

Opponents are hitting .545 (12-for-22) against Paolo Espino on low fastballs this season — highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: .265 — 0 Percentile.

Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals

The Braves are 23-3 (.885) when scoring in the first inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .662.

The Braves are 5-2 (.714) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Braves are 36-5 (.878) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .791.

The Braves are 23-6 (.793) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .712.

Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Braves

The Nationals are just 101-16 (.863) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .914.

The Nationals are just 9-57 (.136) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .297.

The Nationals are just 14-35 (.286) at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .521.

The Nationals are just 30-55 (.353) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .535.

Braves hitters have 226 extra-base hits out of 532 total hits (42%) against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 35%.

Braves hitters are slugging .710 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .565.

Braves hitters are slugging .497 on pitches 95 mph or greater this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .393.

Braves hitters have put just 31% of their swings in play on the first pitch of at-bats this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.

Nationals hitters have just 659 strikeouts in 3,443 PA’s (19%) this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 29% at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 52%.

Nationals hitters have just 1,375 strikeouts in 6,605 PA’s (21%) against RHP since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Nationals hitters have put 39% of their swings in play with two-strikes since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.

Braves pitchers have walked 75 of 830 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Braves pitchers have picked-off 9 runners from first base this season — best in MLB.

Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 29% when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Nationals pitchers have an ERA of 5.74 (364.0 IP) on the road this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.14.

The Nationals pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 73% of their games at home this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 54%.

The Nationals have won just 18% of games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of .309 against Nationals pitchers with runners on base this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .246.

Nationals vs. Braves Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Víctor Arano (Nationals): Knee, D15
  • Joseph Ross (Nationals): Elbow, D60
  • Stephen Strasburg (Nationals): Ribs, D60
  • Seth Romero (Nationals): Calf, D60
  • William Harris (Nationals): Pectoral, D60
  • Joshua Rogers (Nationals): Shoulder, D15
  • Jackson Tetreault (Nationals): Shoulder, D60
  • Tanner Rainey (Nationals): Elbow, D60
  • Nelson Cruz (Nationals): Quad, Day-to-Day
  • Evan Lee (Nationals): Flexor, D15
  • Carter Kieboom (Nationals): Forearm, D60
  • Reed Garrett (Nationals): Biceps, D15
  • Sean Doolittle (Nationals): Elbow, D60
  • Ozhanio Albies (Braves): Foot, D60
  • Darren O’Day (Braves): Calf, D15
  • Kirby Yates (Braves): Elbow, D60
  • Michael Soroka (Braves): Achilles, D60
  • Manuel Piña (Braves): Wrist, D60
  • Luke Jackson (Braves): Elbow, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.