- The – are favorites vs the –
- Braves starting pitcher: Max Fried, – ERA
- Nationals starting pitcher: Patrick Corbin, – ERA
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The Atlanta Braves () visit Nationals Park to take on the Washington Nationals () on Thursday, March 30, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 1:05pm EDT in Washington.
The – are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at ().
The Braves vs Nationals Over/Under is total runs for the game.
This season, the Braves are 13-7 against the spread (ATS), while the Nationals are 16-9 ATS.
Braves vs. Nationals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Braves | O | ||
| Nationals | U |
Braves vs Nationals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Thursday‘s MLB matchup with 57.7% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Braves and Nationals and up-to-date player injuries.
Bet now on Braves vs Nationals and all games with BetMGM
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Braves Player Prop Bets Today:
- player high – away
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- player high – home
Nationals vs Braves Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Joey Meneses | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Alex Call | 0.5 +875 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Matt Olson | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -750 |
| Jeimer Candelario | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Sean Murphy | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
Nationals vs Braves Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Joey Meneses | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +145 |
| Alex Call | 0.5 -140 | 0.5 +100 |
| Matt Olson | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Jeimer Candelario | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +130 |
| Sean Murphy | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +150 |
Nationals vs Braves RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Joey Meneses | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
| Alex Call | 0.5 +270 | 0.5 -450 |
| Matt Olson | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -225 |
| Jeimer Candelario | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -350 |
| Sean Murphy | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -275 |
Nationals vs Braves Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Max Fried | 5.5 +105 | 5.5 -150 |
| Patrick Corbin | 4.5 +125 | 4.5 -185 |
Braves Best Bets Today:
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 86 of their last 140 games (+23.04 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 79 of their last 116 games (+22.00 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 77 of their last 133 games (+21.60 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in 34 of their last 57 away games (+12.55 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Team Total Over in 37 of their last 61 games (+9.10 Units / 12% ROI)
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Under in 50 of their last 95 games (+7.45 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 25 of their last 69 games (+4.30 Units / 6% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in their last 2 games at home (+2.00 Units / 67% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 24 of their last 48 games (+1.75 Units / 3% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 19 of their last 43 games (+0.25 Units / 1% ROI)
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 12-11 against the Run Line (+0.85 Units / 3.13% ROI).
- 13-7 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.45 Units / 10.34% ROI
- 12-10 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.2 Units / 4.77% ROI
- 10-12 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.15 Units / -12.33% ROI
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Nationals have gone 16-9 against the Run Line (+4.8 Units / 14.63% ROI).
- 12-11 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.5 Units / 17.93% ROI
- 6-19 when betting on the total runs Over for -14.9 Units / -54.28% ROI
- 19-6 when betting on the total runs Under for +12.4 Units / 44.77% ROI
Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Max Fried has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 74.3 MPH on pitches out of the zone since the start of the 2021 season (180 balls in play) — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 80.2
Max Fried walked 32 of 733 batters (4%) last season — tied for 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — 93rd Percentile.
Max Fried allowed a slugging percentage of just .189 (25 Total Bases / 132 ABs) with runners in scoring position last season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .381 — 100th Percentile.
Max Fried allowed an OBP of just .168 (369 PA’s) with two-strikes last season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .238 — 99th Percentile.
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Patrick Corbin allowed an OPS of .943 (243 PA’s) on non-fastballs last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .638 — 0 Percentile.
Hitters not batting 3-4-5 in the order batted .335 (145-for-433) against Patrick Corbin last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .241 — first Percentile.
Patrick Corbin allowed an OBP of .337 (341 PA’s) with two-strikes last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .238 — 0 Percentile.
Opponents batted .363 (110-for-303) against Patrick Corbin on the road last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .248 — 0 Percentile.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Braves are 11-3 (.786) when tied entering the 7th inning last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Braves are 55-26 (.679) at home last season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .532.
The Braves are 36-5 (.878) when scoring in the first inning last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .664.
The Braves are 9-4 (.692) when tied entering the 8th inning last season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Nationals are just 55-90 (.379) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .533.
The Nationals are just 17-94 (.153) when scoring 4 or fewer runs last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .296.
The Nationals are just 38-7 (.844) when leading entering the 7th inning last season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .881.
The Nationals are just 26-55 (.321) at home last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .532.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
Braves hitters slugged .443 against RHP last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .393.
Braves hitters are slugging .442 against RHP since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .401.
Braves hitters slugged .486 on pitches 95 mph or greater last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .383.
The Braves had barrels in 7% of PA’s last season (430/6,082) — best in MLB; League Avg: 5%.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
Nationals hitters are slugging .233 on pitches out of the zone since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .210.
Nationals hitters have an OBP of .326 (6,237 PA’s) on the road since the start of the 2021 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .308.
Nationals hitters have grounded into 297 double plays in 2,331 opportunities (13%) since the start of the 2021 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 38% at home since the start of the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 54%.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
Braves pitchers had a strikeout rate of 28% when facing the leadoff batter in the inning last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Braves pitchers allowed the 30th hardest ball in play hit (122.4 MPH) last season (; League Avg: 117.3).
Braves pitchers had a strikeout rate of 26% last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Opponents had a miss rate of 28% against Braves pitchers last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
The Nationals have won just 22% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the start of the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Opponents had a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Nationals pitchers had a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
The Nationals have won just 20% of games in which their opponents scored first since the start of the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.
Nationals vs. Braves Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Carter Kieboom (Nationals): Finger, D10
- Steven Cavalli (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- VÃctor Arano (Nationals): Shoulder, D60
- Israel Pineda (Nationals): Finger, D10
- Tanner Rainey (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Stephen Strasburg (Nationals): Ribs/Shoulder, D60
- Raisel Iglesias (Braves): Shoulder, D15
- Kyle Wright (Braves): Shoulder, D15
- Max Fried (Braves): Hamstring, Day-to-Day
- Tyler Matzek (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Kolby Allard (Braves): Oblique, D60
- Huascar Ynoa (Braves): Elbow, D60
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