Braves vs Nationals Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Sep 26

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
(AP Photo)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Sep 26, 2022, 3:30 PM
  • The Braves (95-58) are -250 favorites vs the Nationals (53-99)
  • Braves starting pitcher: Bryce Elder (1-3), 3.37 ERA
  • Nationals starting pitcher: Cory Abbott (0-3), 4.84 ERA
  • Watch the game on MLB Network

The Atlanta Braves (-250) visit Nationals Park to take on the Washington Nationals (+200) on Monday, September 26, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05pm EDT in Washington.

The Braves are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -2.5 (+105).

The Braves vs Nationals Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Braves are 95-57 against the spread (ATS), while the Nationals are 68-83 ATS.

Braves vs. Nationals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Braves-2.5 +105O 9 +100-250
Nationals +2.5 -125U 9 -120+200

Braves vs Nationals Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Monday‘s matchup with 62.1% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Braves and Nationals and up-to-date player injuries.


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Best Braves Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Michael Harris II has hit the Hits Over in 75 of his last 103 games (+26.10 Units / 14% ROI)
  • Dansby Swanson has hit the Singles Over in 81 of his last 141 games (+18.40 Units / 11% ROI)
  • Matt Olson has hit the RBIs Under in 25 of his last 29 games (+17.95 Units / 32% ROI)
  • Michael Harris II has hit the Runs Over in 17 of his last 24 away games (+17.10 Units / 71% ROI)
  • Matt Olson has hit the Hits Under in 16 of his last 24 games (+16.60 Units / 69% ROI)

Best Nationals Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Joey Meneses has hit the Hits Over in 35 of his last 43 games (+19.70 Units / 22% ROI)
  • Lane Thomas has hit the Total Bases Over in 25 of his last 35 games (+15.75 Units / 33% ROI)
  • Nelson Cruz has hit the Runs Under in 24 of his last 30 games at home (+14.50 Units / 31% ROI)
  • Luke Voit has hit the Runs Under in 24 of his last 31 games (+12.65 Units / 24% ROI)
  • Nelson Cruz has hit the Total Bases Under in 23 of his last 30 games at home (+12.05 Units / 24% ROI)

Nationals vs Braves Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alex Call 0.5 +575 0.5 -1400
C.J. Abrams 0.5 +775 0.5 -3000
Ildemaro Vargas 0.5 +950 0.5 -10000
Joey Meneses 0.5 +550 0.5 -1200
Lane Thomas 0.5 +525 0.5 -1200

Nationals vs Braves Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alex Call 0.5 -150 0.5 +105
C.J. Abrams 0.5 -225 0.5 +155
Ildemaro Vargas 0.5 -200 0.5 +140
Joey Meneses 0.5 -225 0.5 +150
Lane Thomas 0.5 -190 0.5 +130

Nationals vs Braves RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alex Call 0.5 +225 0.5 -350
C.J. Abrams 0.5 +220 0.5 -350
Ildemaro Vargas 0.5 +200 0.5 -300
Joey Meneses 0.5 +200 0.5 -300
Lane Thomas 0.5 +225 0.5 -350

Nationals vs Braves Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Cory Abbott 3.5 -140 3.5 +100
Bryce Elder 4.5 -130 4.5 -110
  • The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 80 of their last 127 games (+25.22 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in 30 of their last 49 away games (+13.20 Units / 24% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 30 of their last 49 away games (+10.40 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the Team Total Over in 30 of their last 48 games (+9.85 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 34 of their last 53 away games (+7.55 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 77 of their last 139 games (+15.40 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 16 of their last 25 games (+8.65 Units / 30% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 17 of their last 33 games (+6.30 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Over in 30 of their last 56 games at home (+4.35 Units / 7% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 5 of their last 7 games at home (+3.40 Units / 37% ROI)

Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 78-74 against the Run Line (-4.8 Units / -2.5% ROI).

  • 95-57 when betting on the Moneyline for +14.1 Units / 5.46% ROI
  • 76-68 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.2 Units / 0.71% ROI
  • 68-76 when betting on the total runs Under for -15.5 Units / -9.3% ROI

Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 68-83 against the Run Line (-21.85 Units / -11.95% ROI).

  • 52-99 when betting on the Moneyline for -17.3 Units / -11.06% ROI
  • 70-72 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.15 Units / -5.46% ROI
  • 72-70 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.3 Units / -2.6% ROI

Bryce Elder has retired the leadoff hitter in each of his last 19 innings — this is the longest active streak among active MLB players.

Bryce Elder has not allowed a home run in any of the last 24.2 innings he’s appeared — George Kirby has the longest active streak at 67.1.

Opponents had a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of just 19% (3/16) against Bryce Elder — best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 38% — 100th Percentile.

Bryce Elder has not allowed a HR in any of his last three starts dating back to August 14th — George Kirby has the longest active streak at 13.

Cory Abbott: Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 24% (12/49) against Cory Abbott this month (6 games) — 5th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 10 total IP; League Avg: 42% — third Percentile.

Cory Abbott has a strikeout rate of just 7% (1 SO in 15 PAs) with runners in scoring position this month (4 games) — tied for 8th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 10 total IP; League Avg: 21% — eighth Percentile.

Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of 52% (14/27) against Cory Abbott — tied for 11th highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 38% — seventh Percentile.

Cory Abbott has allowed an OBP of .385 (65 PA’s) this month (6 games) — 13th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 10 total IP; League Avg: .303 — eighth Percentile.

Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals

The Braves are 35-5 (.875) when scoring in the first inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .665.

The Braves are 11-3 (.786) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Braves are 43-32 (.573) on the road this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .475.

The Braves are 52-26 (.667) at home this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .525.

Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Braves

The Nationals are just 16-86 (.157) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .294.

The Nationals are just 11-185 (.056) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .126.

The Nationals are just 53-84 (.387) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .533.

The Nationals are just 24-50 (.324) at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .525.

Braves hitters are slugging .664 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .560.

Braves hitters are slugging .627 on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .571.

Braves hitters are slugging .440 against RHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .394.

Braves hitters have an OPS of .832 (1,132 PA’s) on pitches 95 mph or greater this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .715.

The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 32% at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 52%.

Nationals hitters have put 39% of their swings in play with two-strikes since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.

The Nationals have won just 59% of games in which they have scored three or more runs in an inning since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 76%.

The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 35% this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.

Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Braves pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Braves pitchers since the start of last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 33% with two-strikes over the last 14 days (11 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

The Nationals have won just 22% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.

The Nationals have won just 21% of games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.

Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 31% with two-strikes this month (22 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

Nationals vs. Braves Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Joseph Ross (Nationals): Elbow, D60
  • MacKenzie Gore (Nationals): Elbow, D15
  • Keibert Ruiz (Nationals): Groin, D10
  • Nelson Cruz (Nationals): Eyes, Day-to-Day
  • Stephen Strasburg (Nationals): Ribs, D60
  • William Harris (Nationals): Pectoral, D60
  • Jackson Tetreault (Nationals): Shoulder, D60
  • Steven Cavalli (Nationals): Shoulder, D15
  • Tanner Rainey (Nationals): Elbow, D60
  • Patrick Corbin (Nationals): Back, Day-to-Day
  • Evan Lee (Nationals): Flexor, D60
  • Carter Kieboom (Nationals): Forearm, D60
  • Víctor Arano (Nationals): Shoulder, D15
  • Yadiel Hernandez (Nationals): Calf, D60
  • Sean Doolittle (Nationals): Elbow, D60
  • Ozhanio Albies (Braves): Finger, D10
  • Darren O’Day (Braves): Calf, D60
  • Spencer Strider (Braves): Oblique, D15
  • Manuel Piña (Braves): Wrist, D60
  • Chadwick Tromp (Braves): Quad, D10
  • Luke Jackson (Braves): Elbow, D60
  • Adam Duvall (Braves): Wrist, D60
  • Kirby Yates (Braves): Elbow, D15

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.