Braves vs Nationals Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Sep 28

min read
MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
(AP Photo)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Sep 28, 2022, 3:30 PM
  • The Braves (97-58) are -225 favorites vs the Nationals (53-101)
  • Braves starting pitcher: Jacob Odorizzi (5-6), 4.60 ERA
  • Nationals starting pitcher: Josiah Gray (7-10), 5.17 ERA
  • Watch the game on MLB Network

The Atlanta Braves (-225) visit Nationals Park to take on the Washington Nationals (+180) on Wednesday, September 28, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05pm EDT in Washington.

The Braves are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-135).

The Braves vs Nationals Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Braves are 97-58 against the spread (ATS), while the Nationals are 69-85 ATS.

Braves vs. Nationals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Braves-1.5 -135O 8.5 -110-225
Nationals +1.5 +110U 8.5 -110+180

Braves vs Nationals Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Wednesday‘s matchup with 59.2% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Braves and Nationals and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Nationals vs Braves and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Braves Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Michael Harris II has hit the Hits Over in 75 of his last 104 games (+25.10 Units / 13% ROI)
  • Michael Harris II has hit the Runs Over in 18 of his last 25 away games (+18.10 Units / 71% ROI)
  • Dansby Swanson has hit the Singles Over in 81 of his last 142 games (+17.25 Units / 11% ROI)
  • Matt Olson has hit the RBIs Under in 25 of his last 30 games (+16.60 Units / 29% ROI)
  • Matt Olson has hit the Singles Under in 94 of his last 141 games (+15.65 Units / 6% ROI)

Best Nationals Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Joey Meneses has hit the Hits Over in 36 of his last 44 games (+20.70 Units / 23% ROI)
  • Lane Thomas has hit the Total Bases Over in 26 of his last 36 games (+16.75 Units / 34% ROI)
  • Nelson Cruz has hit the Runs Under in 24 of his last 30 games at home (+14.50 Units / 31% ROI)
  • Luke Voit has hit the Runs Under in 25 of his last 32 games (+13.65 Units / 25% ROI)
  • Joey Meneses has hit the Total Bases Over in 28 of his last 44 games (+12.20 Units / 20% ROI)

Nationals vs Braves Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alex Call 0.5 +650 0.5 -2000
C.J. Abrams 0.5 +775 0.5 -3000
Ildemaro Vargas 0.5 +950 0.5 -10000
Joey Meneses 0.5 +550 0.5 -1400
Lane Thomas 0.5 +625 0.5 -1600

Nationals vs Braves Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alex Call 0.5 -135 0.5 -105
C.J. Abrams 0.5 -275 0.5 +180
Ildemaro Vargas 0.5 -200 0.5 +150
Joey Meneses 0.5 -225 0.5 +160
Lane Thomas 0.5 -200 0.5 +135

Nationals vs Braves RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alex Call 0.5 +250 0.5 -400
C.J. Abrams 0.5 +240 0.5 -375
Ildemaro Vargas 0.5 +230 0.5 -350
Joey Meneses 0.5 +180 0.5 -275
Lane Thomas 0.5 +250 0.5 -400

Nationals vs Braves Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Josiah Gray 5.5 +100 5.5 -145
Jake Odorizzi 3.5 -145 3.5 +105
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 4 of their last 5 games (+3.05 Units / 51% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 17 of their last 27 games (+8.35 Units / 27% ROI)

Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 80-75 against the Run Line (-4.05 Units / -2.07% ROI).

  • 97-58 when betting on the Moneyline for +13.5 Units / 5.08% ROI
  • 77-70 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.2 Units / -0.12% ROI
  • 70-77 when betting on the total runs Under for -14.5 Units / -8.54% ROI

Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 69-85 against the Run Line (-22.8 Units / -12.26% ROI).

  • 53-101 when betting on the Moneyline for -17.1 Units / -10.73% ROI
  • 71-74 when betting on the total runs Over for -10.55 Units / -6.17% ROI
  • 74-71 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.3 Units / -1.96% ROI

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 24% (45/187) against Jake Odorizzi in non-two strike counts this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 76 total IP; League Avg: 42% — 0 Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 22% (14/64) against Jake Odorizzi with runners in scoring position this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 76 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 0 Percentile.

Jake Odorizzi has thrown elevated pitches 46% of the time (367/800) on pitches in the strike zone this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 76 total IP; League Avg: 29% — 100th Percentile.

Jake Odorizzi has thrown elevated pitches 49% of the time (426/861) on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 157 total IP; League Avg: 30% — 99th Percentile.

Josiah Gray: Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Josiah Gray has allowed a slugging percentage of .597 (135 Total Bases / 226 ABs) vs left-handed batters this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 76 total IP; League Avg: .383 — first Percentile.

Josiah Gray has walked 43 of 271 left-handed batters (16%) this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 76 total IP; League Avg: 8% — first Percentile.

Josiah Gray has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 83.0 MPH on non-fastballs since the start of last season (277 balls in play) — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 157 total IP; League Avg: 86.9

Left-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 25% (41/164) against Josiah Gray this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 76 total IP; League Avg: 43% — first Percentile.

Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals

The Braves are 11-3 (.786) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Braves are 35-5 (.875) when scoring in the first inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .663.

The Braves are 48-11 (.814) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .726.

The Braves are 68-9 (.883) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .801.

Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Braves

The Nationals are just 16-88 (.154) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .294.

The Nationals are just 53-86 (.381) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .533.

The Nationals are just 11-187 (.056) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .125.

The Nationals are just 11-55 (.167) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .294.

Braves hitters are slugging .660 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .560.

Braves hitters have an OPS of .840 (1,150 PA’s) on pitches 95 mph or greater this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .715.

Braves hitters are slugging .307 with two-strikes this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .264.

Braves hitters are slugging .447 against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .401.

The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 38% at home since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.

The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 37% since the start of last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.

The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 32% at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.

Nationals hitters are slugging just .488 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .560.

Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 30% this month (24 games) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Braves pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Braves pitchers since the start of last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

The Nationals have won just 22% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.

Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 33% with two-strikes over the last 14 days (12 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of .263 against Nationals pitchers with the shift this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .220.

Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 32% with two-strikes this month (24 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

Nationals vs. Braves Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Joseph Ross (Nationals): Elbow, D60
  • MacKenzie Gore (Nationals): Elbow, D15
  • Keibert Ruiz (Nationals): Groin, D10
  • Nelson Cruz (Nationals): Eyes, Day-to-Day
  • Stephen Strasburg (Nationals): Ribs, D60
  • William Harris (Nationals): Pectoral, D60
  • Jackson Tetreault (Nationals): Shoulder, D60
  • Steven Cavalli (Nationals): Shoulder, D15
  • Tanner Rainey (Nationals): Elbow, D60
  • Patrick Corbin (Nationals): Back, Day-to-Day
  • Evan Lee (Nationals): Flexor, D60
  • Carter Kieboom (Nationals): Forearm, D60
  • Víctor Arano (Nationals): Shoulder, D15
  • Yadiel Hernandez (Nationals): Calf, D60
  • Sean Doolittle (Nationals): Elbow, D60
  • Ozhanio Albies (Braves): Finger, D10
  • Darren O’Day (Braves): Calf, D60
  • Huascar Ynoa (Braves): Undisclosed, D60
  • Spencer Strider (Braves): Oblique, D15
  • Manuel Piña (Braves): Wrist, D60
  • Chadwick Tromp (Braves): Quad, D10
  • Luke Jackson (Braves): Elbow, D60
  • Adam Duvall (Braves): Wrist, D60
  • Kirby Yates (Braves): Elbow, D15

Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Nationals vs Braves and all MLB games with BetMGM


Bet on MLB Odds at BetMGM

At BetMGM, you can bet online with updated MLB betting odds. And with live sports betting, the best online sports betting and mobile sports betting (with the BetMGM Sportsbook app) experiences are at BetMGM.

About the Author

BetMGM Betting

Read More @BETMGM

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.