- The Braves (97-58) are -225 favorites vs the Nationals (53-101)
- Braves starting pitcher: Jacob Odorizzi (5-6), 4.60 ERA
- Nationals starting pitcher: Josiah Gray (7-10), 5.17 ERA
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The Atlanta Braves (-225) visit Nationals Park to take on the Washington Nationals (+180) on Wednesday, September 28, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05pm EDT in Washington.
The Braves are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-135).
The Braves vs Nationals Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Braves are 97-58 against the spread (ATS), while the Nationals are 69-85 ATS.
Braves vs. Nationals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Braves | -1.5 -135 | O 8.5 -110 | -225 |
| Nationals | +1.5 +110 | U 8.5 -110 | +180 |
Braves vs Nationals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Wednesday‘s matchup with 59.2% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Braves and Nationals and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Braves Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Michael Harris II has hit the Hits Over in 75 of his last 104 games (+25.10 Units / 13% ROI)
- Michael Harris II has hit the Runs Over in 18 of his last 25 away games (+18.10 Units / 71% ROI)
- Dansby Swanson has hit the Singles Over in 81 of his last 142 games (+17.25 Units / 11% ROI)
- Matt Olson has hit the RBIs Under in 25 of his last 30 games (+16.60 Units / 29% ROI)
- Matt Olson has hit the Singles Under in 94 of his last 141 games (+15.65 Units / 6% ROI)
Best Nationals Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Joey Meneses has hit the Hits Over in 36 of his last 44 games (+20.70 Units / 23% ROI)
- Lane Thomas has hit the Total Bases Over in 26 of his last 36 games (+16.75 Units / 34% ROI)
- Nelson Cruz has hit the Runs Under in 24 of his last 30 games at home (+14.50 Units / 31% ROI)
- Luke Voit has hit the Runs Under in 25 of his last 32 games (+13.65 Units / 25% ROI)
- Joey Meneses has hit the Total Bases Over in 28 of his last 44 games (+12.20 Units / 20% ROI)
Nationals vs Braves Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Call | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -2000 |
| C.J. Abrams | 0.5 +775 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Ildemaro Vargas | 0.5 +950 | 0.5 -10000 |
| Joey Meneses | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Lane Thomas | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1600 |
Nationals vs Braves Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Call | 0.5 -135 | 0.5 -105 |
| C.J. Abrams | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +180 |
| Ildemaro Vargas | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Joey Meneses | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +160 |
| Lane Thomas | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +135 |
Nationals vs Braves RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Call | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -400 |
| C.J. Abrams | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -375 |
| Ildemaro Vargas | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
| Joey Meneses | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -275 |
| Lane Thomas | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -400 |
Nationals vs Braves Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Josiah Gray | 5.5 +100 | 5.5 -145 |
| Jake Odorizzi | 3.5 -145 | 3.5 +105 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Braves Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 4 of their last 5 games (+3.05 Units / 51% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Nationals: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 17 of their last 27 games (+8.35 Units / 27% ROI)
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 80-75 against the Run Line (-4.05 Units / -2.07% ROI).
- 97-58 when betting on the Moneyline for +13.5 Units / 5.08% ROI
- 77-70 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.2 Units / -0.12% ROI
- 70-77 when betting on the total runs Under for -14.5 Units / -8.54% ROI
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 69-85 against the Run Line (-22.8 Units / -12.26% ROI).
- 53-101 when betting on the Moneyline for -17.1 Units / -10.73% ROI
- 71-74 when betting on the total runs Over for -10.55 Units / -6.17% ROI
- 74-71 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.3 Units / -1.96% ROI
Jacob Odorizzi: Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 24% (45/187) against Jake Odorizzi in non-two strike counts this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 76 total IP; League Avg: 42% — 0 Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 22% (14/64) against Jake Odorizzi with runners in scoring position this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 76 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 0 Percentile.
Jake Odorizzi has thrown elevated pitches 46% of the time (367/800) on pitches in the strike zone this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 76 total IP; League Avg: 29% — 100th Percentile.
Jake Odorizzi has thrown elevated pitches 49% of the time (426/861) on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 157 total IP; League Avg: 30% — 99th Percentile.
Josiah Gray: Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Josiah Gray has allowed a slugging percentage of .597 (135 Total Bases / 226 ABs) vs left-handed batters this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 76 total IP; League Avg: .383 — first Percentile.
Josiah Gray has walked 43 of 271 left-handed batters (16%) this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 76 total IP; League Avg: 8% — first Percentile.
Josiah Gray has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 83.0 MPH on non-fastballs since the start of last season (277 balls in play) — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 157 total IP; League Avg: 86.9
Left-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 25% (41/164) against Josiah Gray this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 76 total IP; League Avg: 43% — first Percentile.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Braves are 11-3 (.786) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Braves are 35-5 (.875) when scoring in the first inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .663.
The Braves are 48-11 (.814) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .726.
The Braves are 68-9 (.883) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .801.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Nationals are just 16-88 (.154) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .294.
The Nationals are just 53-86 (.381) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .533.
The Nationals are just 11-187 (.056) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .125.
The Nationals are just 11-55 (.167) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .294.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
Braves hitters are slugging .660 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .560.
Braves hitters have an OPS of .840 (1,150 PA’s) on pitches 95 mph or greater this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .715.
Braves hitters are slugging .307 with two-strikes this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .264.
Braves hitters are slugging .447 against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .401.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 38% at home since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 37% since the start of last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 32% at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
Nationals hitters are slugging just .488 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .560.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 30% this month (24 games) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Braves pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Braves pitchers since the start of last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
The Nationals have won just 22% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 33% with two-strikes over the last 14 days (12 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .263 against Nationals pitchers with the shift this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .220.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 32% with two-strikes this month (24 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Nationals vs. Braves Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Joseph Ross (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- MacKenzie Gore (Nationals): Elbow, D15
- Keibert Ruiz (Nationals): Groin, D10
- Nelson Cruz (Nationals): Eyes, Day-to-Day
- Stephen Strasburg (Nationals): Ribs, D60
- William Harris (Nationals): Pectoral, D60
- Jackson Tetreault (Nationals): Shoulder, D60
- Steven Cavalli (Nationals): Shoulder, D15
- Tanner Rainey (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Patrick Corbin (Nationals): Back, Day-to-Day
- Evan Lee (Nationals): Flexor, D60
- Carter Kieboom (Nationals): Forearm, D60
- Víctor Arano (Nationals): Shoulder, D15
- Yadiel Hernandez (Nationals): Calf, D60
- Sean Doolittle (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Ozhanio Albies (Braves): Finger, D10
- Darren O’Day (Braves): Calf, D60
- Huascar Ynoa (Braves): Undisclosed, D60
- Spencer Strider (Braves): Oblique, D15
- Manuel Piña (Braves): Wrist, D60
- Chadwick Tromp (Braves): Quad, D10
- Luke Jackson (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Adam Duvall (Braves): Wrist, D60
- Kirby Yates (Braves): Elbow, D15
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