- The Braves are -150 favorites vs the Padres
- Braves starting pitcher: Max Fried
- Padres starting pitcher: Ryan Weathers
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The Atlanta Braves (-150) visit PETCO Park to take on the San Diego Padres (+125) on Monday, April 17, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40pm EDT in San Diego.
The Braves are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+110).
The Braves vs Padres Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Braves are 12-4 against the spread (ATS), while the Padres are 8-9 ATS.
Braves vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Braves | -1.5 +110 | O 8.5 -115 | -150 |
| Padres | +1.5 -135 | U 8.5 -105 | +125 |
Braves vs Padres Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Monday‘s MLB matchup with 62.3% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Braves and Padres and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Braves Player Prop Bets Today:
- Matt Olson has hit the RBIs Over in 9 of his last 13 games (+9.40 Units / 72% ROI)
- Sean Murphy has hit the Singles Under in his last 8 games (+8.10 Units / 85% ROI)
- Ronald Acuna Jr. has hit the Runs Over in his last 8 away games (+8.00 Units / 75% ROI)
- Austin Riley has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 10 of his last 13 games (+7.45 Units / 44% ROI)
- Eddie Rosario has hit the Singles Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+6.85 Units / 53% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Xander Bogaerts has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 18 games (+16.45 Units / 42% ROI)
- Xander Bogaerts has hit the Singles Over in his last 10 games (+10.10 Units / 85% ROI)
- Juan Soto has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 17 games (+8.95 Units / 52% ROI)
- Manny Machado has hit the Runs Under in 14 of his last 18 games (+8.85 Units / 30% ROI)
- Juan Soto has hit the Singles Under in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 59% ROI)
Padres vs Braves Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Austin Nola | 0.5 +850 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Matt Olson | 0.5 +340 | 0.5 -600 |
| Sean Murphy | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Ha-seong Kim | 0.5 +900 | 0.5 -10000 |
| Xander Bogaerts | 0.5 +775 | 0.5 -3000 |
Padres vs Braves Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Austin Nola | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +130 |
| Matt Olson | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Sean Murphy | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Ha-seong Kim | 0.5 -155 | 0.5 +115 |
| Xander Bogaerts | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
Padres vs Braves RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Austin Nola | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -300 |
| Matt Olson | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Sean Murphy | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Ha-seong Kim | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -375 |
| Xander Bogaerts | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -350 |
Padres vs Braves Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ryan Weathers | 3.5 -115 | 3.5 -110 |
| Max Fried | 3.5 -120 | 3.5 -110 |
Braves Best Bets Today:
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 16 games (+6.70 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Team Total Over in their last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 78% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in 6 of their last 7 games (+6.00 Units / 78% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 7 of their last 9 away games (+5.70 Units / 50% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Under in 6 of their last 7 games (+5.00 Units / 60% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 6 of their last 7 games (+5.00 Units / 58% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 7 of their last 10 games (+3.50 Units / 32% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 9 of their last 15 games (+2.10 Units / 12% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 8 of their last 15 games (+0.75 Units / 4% ROI)
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 7-9 against the Run Line (-1.75 Units / -9.28% ROI).
- 12-4 when betting on the Moneyline for +6.7 Units / 25.14% ROI
- 9-6 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.3 Units / 13.07% ROI
- 6-9 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.1 Units / -23.3% ROI
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 8-9 against the Run Line (-2.3 Units / -10.2% ROI).
- 8-9 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.1 Units / -20.32% ROI
- 8-9 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.15 Units / -11.29% ROI
- 9-8 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.25 Units / 1.36% ROI
Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Max Fried has walked 32 of 746 batters (4%) since last season — 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 93rd Percentile.
Max Fried has allowed an OPS of just .358 (373 PA’s) with two-strikes since last season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .465 — 95th Percentile.
Max Fried has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 74.4 MPH on pitches out of the zone since the 2021 season (182 balls in play) — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 134 total IP; League Avg: 80.4
Max Fried has allowed an OBP of just .169 (373 PA’s) with two-strikes since last season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .222 — 100th Percentile.
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of just 18% (5/28) against Ryan Weathers this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 5 total IP; League Avg: 40% — 100th Percentile.
Ryan Weathers has thrown his changeup 46% of the time (26/57) with runners in scoring position this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 5 total CH; League Avg: 15% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of just 17% (4/23) against Ryan Weathers against right-handed batters this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 5 total IP; League Avg: 40% — 100th Percentile.
Ryan Weathers has thrown his fastball for a strike just 54% (49/90) of the time this season — 8th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 5 total IP; League Avg: 65% — sixth Percentile.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Braves are 22-16 (.579) when allowing 2 or more home runs since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .290.
The Braves are 13-3 (.812) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Braves are 8-1 (.889) on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .496.
The Braves are 44-5 (.898) when scoring in the first inning since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .651.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Padres are 81-28 (.743) when allowing 4 or fewer runs since the 2022 season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .707.
The Padres are 35-12 (.745) when hitting 2 or more home runs since the 2022 season — tied for 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .710.
The Padres are 23-3 (.885) when totaling 5 or more extra base hits since the 2022 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .807.
The Padres are 27-15 (.643) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses since the 2022 season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .578.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
Braves hitters are slugging .320 on pitches out of the zone this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .210.
Braves hitters are slugging .308 with two-strikes since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .263.
Braves hitters are slugging .658 on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .561.
Braves hitters are slugging .444 against RHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .395.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
Padres hitters have an OPS of just .610 (197 PA’s) in innings 7-9 this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .701.
Padres hitters are slugging just .370 at home since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .403.
Padres hitters have chased 27% of pitches out of the zone against RHP since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Padres hitters have an OBP of .328 (3,533 PA’s) on the road since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .308.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 29% in late innings since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Braves pitchers have an ERA of 2.59 (80.0 IP) on the road this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.46.
Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 17% with runners in scoring position this season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 29% against Padres pitchers this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 48% against Padres pitchers this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Padres pitchers have walked 12 of 62 batters (19%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the past seven days (7 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
Padres pitchers have walked 18 of 152 batters (12%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Padres vs. Braves Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Thomas Pomeranz (Padres): Elbow/Flexor, D15
- José Castillo (Padres): Shoulder, D15
- Adrian Morejon (Padres): Elbow, D60
- Adam Engel (Padres): Hamstring, D10
- David Dahl (Padres): Quad, D10
- Robert Suarez (Padres): Elbow, D15
- Eguy Rosario (Padres): Ankle, D60
- Joseph Musgrove (Padres): Toe, D15
- Raisel Iglesias (Braves): Shoulder, D15
- Michael Harris II (Braves): Back, D10
- Orlando Arcia (Braves): Wrist, D10
- Tyler Matzek (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Lucas Luetge (Braves): Bicep, D15
- Collin McHugh (Braves): Shoulder, D15
- Kolby Allard (Braves): Oblique, D60
- Travis d’Arnaud (Braves): Concussion, D7
- Huascar Ynoa (Braves): Elbow, D60
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