- The Braves are -140 favorites vs the Padres
- Braves starting pitcher: Spencer Strider
- Padres starting pitcher: Blake Snell
- Watch the game on BSSD
The Atlanta Braves (-140) visit PETCO Park to take on the San Diego Padres (+120) on Tuesday, April 18, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40pm EDT in San Diego.
The Braves are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+125).
The Braves vs Padres Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Braves are 13-4 against the spread (ATS), while the Padres are 8-10 ATS.
Braves vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Braves | -1.5 +125 | O 7.5 -115 | -140 |
| Padres | +1.5 -150 | U 7.5 -105 | +120 |
Braves vs Padres Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Tuesday‘s MLB matchup with 67.3% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Braves and Padres and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Braves Player Prop Bets Today:
- Sean Murphy has hit the Singles Under in his last 9 games (+9.10 Units / 83% ROI)
- Ronald Acuna Jr. has hit the Runs Over in his last 9 away games (+9.00 Units / 75% ROI)
- Austin Riley has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 11 of his last 14 games (+8.45 Units / 46% ROI)
- Matt Olson has hit the RBIs Over in 9 of his last 14 games (+8.40 Units / 60% ROI)
- Ronald Acuna Jr. has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 12 of his last 17 games (+7.80 Units / 39% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Xander Bogaerts has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 19 games (+17.45 Units / 42% ROI)
- Xander Bogaerts has hit the Singles Over in his last 11 games (+11.10 Units / 84% ROI)
- Juan Soto has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 18 games (+10.35 Units / 57% ROI)
- Manny Machado has hit the Runs Under in 15 of his last 19 games (+9.85 Units / 31% ROI)
- Juan Soto has hit the Singles Under in his last 8 games (+8.00 Units / 61% ROI)
Padres vs Braves Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Austin Nola | 0.5 +1000 | 0.5 -10000 |
| Matt Olson | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -900 |
| Sean Murphy | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Matt Carpenter | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Vaughn Grissom | 0.5 +850 | 0.5 -5000 |
Padres vs Braves Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Austin Nola | 0.5 -105 | 0.5 -125 |
| Matt Olson | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +130 |
| Sean Murphy | 0.5 -145 | 0.5 +110 |
| Matt Carpenter | 0.5 +110 | 0.5 -145 |
| Vaughn Grissom | 0.5 -155 | 0.5 +120 |
Padres vs Braves RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Austin Nola | 0.5 +333 | 0.5 -500 |
| Matt Olson | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Sean Murphy | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -275 |
| Matt Carpenter | 0.5 +290 | 0.5 -450 |
| Vaughn Grissom | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
Padres vs Braves Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Spencer Strider | 8.5 +115 | 8.5 -150 |
| Blake Snell | 6.5 -115 | 6.5 -110 |
Braves Best Bets Today:
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 13 of their last 17 games (+7.70 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 8 of their last 10 away games (+6.90 Units / 56% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in 6 of their last 8 games (+5.00 Units / 57% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Team Total Over in 6 of their last 7 games (+4.85 Units / 55% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Under in 7 of their last 8 games (+6.00 Units / 63% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 7 of their last 8 games (+6.00 Units / 62% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 8 of their last 11 games (+4.50 Units / 37% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 9 of their last 16 games (+1.00 Units / 5% ROI)
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 8-9 against the Run Line (-0.55 Units / -2.77% ROI).
- 13-4 when betting on the Moneyline for +7.7 Units / 27.45% ROI
- 9-7 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.3 Units / 6.99% ROI
- 7-9 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.1 Units / -16.49% ROI
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 8-10 against the Run Line (-3.7 Units / -15.45% ROI).
- 8-10 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.1 Units / -23.37% ROI
- 8-10 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.15 Units / -15.71% ROI
- 10-8 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.25 Units / 6.38% ROI
Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Spencer Strider has a strikeout rate of 41% (27 SO in 66 PAs) this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 99th Percentile.
Spencer Strider has struck out 47% (18/38) of left-handed batters he faced this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of 47% (37/79) against Spencer Strider in non-two strike counts this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 26% (8/31) against Spencer Strider this season — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — second Percentile.
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Blake Snell has a strike rate of just 40% (21/52) when going through the lineup the third time in a game this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 5 total IP; League Avg: 63% — first Percentile.
Blake Snell has a strike rate of just 46% (39/84) when ahead in the count this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 5 total IP; League Avg: 61% — 0 Percentile.
Blake Snell has walked 26 of 152 batters (17%) with runners in scoring position since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 70 total IP; League Avg: 9% — first Percentile.
Blake Snell has a strike rate of just 36% (18/50) on sliders this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 5 total IP; League Avg: 64% — first Percentile.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Braves are 13-3 (.812) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Braves are 9-1 (.900) on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .506.
The Braves are 22-16 (.579) when allowing 2 or more home runs since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .290.
The Braves were 11-3 (.786) when tied entering the 7th inning in 2022 — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Padres are 18-20 (.474) when moneyline underdogs of less than +150 since the 2022 season — tied for 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .419.
The Padres are 4-3 (.571) on the road this season — tied for 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .506.
The Padres are 25-27 (.481) as underdogs since the 2022 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .397.
The Padres are 35-12 (.745) when hitting 2 or more home runs since the 2022 season — tied for 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .710.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
Braves hitters are slugging .312 on pitches out of the zone this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .210.
Braves hitters are slugging .306 with two-strikes since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .263.
Braves hitters are slugging .443 against RHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .395.
Braves hitters are slugging .475 on pitches 95 mph or greater since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .384.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
Padres hitters have an OPS of just .675 (3,352 PA’s) at home since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .720.
The Padres are batting just .230 at home since last season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .246.
The Padres are batting just .208 on fastballs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .275.
Padres hitters have just 902 strikeouts in 4,282 PA’s (21%) against LHP since the 2020 season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
Braves pitchers have an ERA of 2.33 (89.0 IP) on the road this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.43.
Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 29% in late innings since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .187 against Braves pitchers with the shift since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .222.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Braves pitchers since last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Padres pitchers have walked 12 of 63 batters (19%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the past seven days (7 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Padres pitchers have walked 19 of 161 batters (12%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 29% against Padres pitchers this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 48% against Padres pitchers this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Padres vs. Braves Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Thomas Pomeranz (Padres): Elbow/Flexor, D15
- José Castillo (Padres): Shoulder, D15
- Adrian Morejon (Padres): Elbow, D60
- Adam Engel (Padres): Hamstring, D10
- David Dahl (Padres): Quad, D10
- Robert Suarez (Padres): Elbow, D15
- Eguy Rosario (Padres): Ankle, D60
- Luis Campusano (Padres): Thumb Sprain, D10
- Joseph Musgrove (Padres): Toe, D15
- Raisel Iglesias (Braves): Shoulder, D15
- Michael Harris II (Braves): Back, D10
- Orlando Arcia (Braves): Wrist, D10
- Tyler Matzek (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Lucas Luetge (Braves): Bicep, D15
- Collin McHugh (Braves): Shoulder, D15
- Kolby Allard (Braves): Oblique, D60
- Travis d’Arnaud (Braves): Concussion, D7
- Huascar Ynoa (Braves): Elbow, D60
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