- The Braves are -120 favorites vs the Padres
- Braves starting pitcher: Charles Morton
- Padres starting pitcher: Nicholas Martinez
- Watch the game on BSSD
The Atlanta Braves (-120) visit PETCO Park to take on the San Diego Padres (+100) on Wednesday, April 19, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in San Diego.
The Braves are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+135).
The Braves vs Padres Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.
This season, the Braves are 14-4 against the spread (ATS), while the Padres are 8-11 ATS.
Braves vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Braves | -1.5 +135 | O 9 -120 | -120 |
| Padres | +1.5 -165 | U 9 +100 | +100 |
Braves vs Padres Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Wednesday‘s MLB matchup with 58.4% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Braves and Padres and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Braves Player Prop Bets Today:
- Matt Olson has hit the RBIs Over in 10 of his last 15 games (+10.25 Units / 68% ROI)
- Ronald Acuna Jr. has hit the Runs Over in his last 10 away games (+10.00 Units / 75% ROI)
- Austin Riley has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+7.40 Units / 38% ROI)
- Sean Murphy has hit the RBIs Over in 7 of his last 12 games (+7.35 Units / 61% ROI)
- Sean Murphy has hit the Singles Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+7.10 Units / 55% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Xander Bogaerts has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 20 games (+15.85 Units / 37% ROI)
- Manny Machado has hit the Runs Under in 16 of his last 20 games (+10.85 Units / 32% ROI)
- Xander Bogaerts has hit the Singles Over in 11 of his last 12 games (+10.10 Units / 71% ROI)
- Juan Soto has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 19 games (+9.35 Units / 49% ROI)
- Rougned Odor has hit the Singles Under in his last 8 games (+8.00 Units / 44% ROI)
Padres vs Braves Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Eddie Rosario | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Ronald Acuna | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
| Sam Hilliard | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Austin Riley | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Matt Olson | 0.5 +325 | 0.5 -550 |
Padres vs Braves Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Eddie Rosario | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
| Ronald Acuna | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Sam Hilliard | 0.5 -110 | 0.5 -120 |
| Austin Riley | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +160 |
| Matt Olson | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +135 |
Padres vs Braves RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Eddie Rosario | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| Ronald Acuna | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| Sam Hilliard | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -350 |
| Austin Riley | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Matt Olson | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -200 |
Padres vs Braves Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Charlie Morton | 5.5 -130 | 5.5 +100 |
| Nick Martinez | 4.5 -140 | 4.5 +105 |
Braves Best Bets Today:
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 18 games (+8.70 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 9 of their last 11 away games (+8.20 Units / 61% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in 7 of their last 9 games (+6.00 Units / 62% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Team Total Over in 7 of their last 8 games (+5.85 Units / 58% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Under in 8 of their last 9 games (+7.00 Units / 65% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 8 of their last 9 games (+7.00 Units / 65% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.35 Units / 25% ROI)
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 9-9 against the Run Line (+0.75 Units / 3.6% ROI).
- 14-4 when betting on the Moneyline for +8.7 Units / 29.59% ROI
- 10-7 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.3 Units / 11.7% ROI
- 7-10 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.25 Units / -21.3% ROI
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 8-11 against the Run Line (-5.2 Units / -20.43% ROI).
- 8-11 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.1 Units / -26.2% ROI
- 9-10 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.15 Units / -10.19% ROI
- 10-9 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.1 Units / 0.48% ROI
Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Charlie Morton has a strikeout rate of just 4% (1 SO in 27 PAs) with runners in scoring position this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 22% — first Percentile.
Charlie Morton has thrown his curveball 44% of the time (706/1,620) vs left-handed batters since last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 22% — 100th Percentile.
Left-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 54% (14/26) against Charlie Morton this season — 10th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — 83rd Percentile.
Charlie Morton has struck out just 10% (4/38) of right-handed batters he faced this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — first Percentile.
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Nick Martinez has walked 6 of 19 batters (32%) with runners in scoring position this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 9% — third Percentile.
Nick Martinez allowed a slugging percentage of .780 (32 Total Bases / 41 ABs) on fastballs away in 2022 — highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: .349 — first Percentile.
Nick Martinez has located his fastball inside 59% of the time (65/111) this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 35% — 98th Percentile.
Nick Martinez has a strike rate of just 52% (43/83) in two strike counts this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 64% — first Percentile.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Braves are 13-3 (.812) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Braves are 22-16 (.579) when allowing 2 or more home runs since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .289.
The Braves are 10-1 (.909) on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .515.
The Braves are 45-5 (.900) when scoring in the first inning since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .651.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Padres are 35-12 (.745) when hitting 2 or more home runs since the 2022 season — tied for 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .711.
The Padres are just 3-67 (.043) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .086.
The Padres are 34-15 (.694) when scoring in the first inning since the 2022 season — tied for 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .651.
The Padres are 23-3 (.885) when totaling 5 or more extra base hits since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .805.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
Braves hitters are slugging .317 on pitches out of the zone this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .210.
Braves hitters are slugging .666 on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .561.
Braves hitters have an OBP of .344 (1,862 PA’s) against LHP since last season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .316.
Braves hitters are slugging .306 with two-strikes since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .263.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
The Padres are batting just .224 this season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .247.
Padres hitters have an OPS of just .672 (3,387 PA’s) at home since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .719.
The Padres are batting just .229 at home since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .246.
Padres hitters are slugging just .366 at home since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .402.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 30% in close and late situations since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Braves pitchers this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 29% against Padres pitchers this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Padres pitchers have walked 22 of 170 batters (13%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 47% against Padres pitchers this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Padres pitchers have walked 12 of 63 batters (19%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the past seven days (7 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Padres vs. Braves Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Thomas Pomeranz (Padres): Elbow/Flexor, D15
- José Castillo (Padres): Shoulder, D15
- Adrian Morejon (Padres): Elbow, D60
- Adam Engel (Padres): Hamstring, D10
- David Dahl (Padres): Quad, D10
- Robert Suarez (Padres): Elbow, D15
- Eguy Rosario (Padres): Ankle, D60
- Luis Campusano (Padres): Thumb Sprain, D10
- Joseph Musgrove (Padres): Toe, D15
- Raisel Iglesias (Braves): Shoulder, D15
- Michael Harris II (Braves): Back, D10
- Orlando Arcia (Braves): Wrist, D10
- Tyler Matzek (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Lucas Luetge (Braves): Bicep, D15
- Collin McHugh (Braves): Shoulder, D15
- Kolby Allard (Braves): Oblique, D60
- Travis d’Arnaud (Braves): Concussion, D7
- Huascar Ynoa (Braves): Elbow, D60
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