Braves vs Padres Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jul 12

San Diego Padres' Jake Cronenworth during a baseball game against the San Francisco Giants in San Francisco, Wednesday, June 21, 2023.
(AP Photo/Jeff Chiu)
  • The Braves are -120 favorites vs the Padres
  • Braves vs Padres Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
  • Braves / Padres TV Channel: BSSE | PDTV

The Atlanta Braves (-120) visit Petco Park to take on the San Diego Padres (+100) on Friday, July 12, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40pm EDT in San Diego, CA.

This season, the Braves are 51-41 against the spread (ATS), while the Padres are 48-48 ATS.

Braves vs Padres Starting Pitchers Today:

  • Braves starting pitcher: Spencer Schwellenbach 2-4, 5.02 ERA
  • Padres starting pitcher: Randy Vasquez 2-4, 4.69 ERA

Braves vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Braves-1.5 +140O 8.5 -115-120
Padres +1.5 -165U 8.5 -105+100

Braves vs Padres Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Friday‘s MLB game with 55.8% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.


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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Braves Player Prop Bets Today:

  • Jarred Kelenic has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 16 away games (+20.30 Units / 127% ROI)
  • Orlando Arcia has hit the Runs Under in 26 of his last 30 games (+19.10 Units / 34% ROI)
  • Orlando Arcia has hit the Singles Under in 35 of his last 50 games (+16.30 Units / 25% ROI)
  • Austin Riley has hit the RBIs Under in 38 of his last 50 games (+16.05 Units / 18% ROI)
  • Ozzie Albies has hit the Hits Under in 18 of his last 23 away games (+15.35 Units / 39% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Padres Player Prop Best Bets Today:

  • Jackson Merrill has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 14 games (+37.30 Units / 266% ROI)
  • Jackson Merrill has hit the RBIs Over in 11 of his last 18 games (+13.55 Units / 75% ROI)
  • Jurickson Profar has hit the Hits Over in 22 of his last 27 games (+11.50 Units / 20% ROI)
  • Kyle Higashioka has hit the Runs Over in 7 of his last 8 games at home (+11.20 Units / 140% ROI)
  • Jurickson Profar has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 14 of his last 17 games (+10.80 Units / 55% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 52 of their last 78 games (+27.40 Units / 31% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 29 of their last 42 away games (+12.74 Units / 24% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the Team Total Under in 23 of their last 35 away games (+10.40 Units / 25% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 6 games (+1.75 Units / 24% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 3 of their last 6 games (+0.75 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Over in 15 of their last 18 games at home (+11.75 Units / 60% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 13 of their last 19 games at home (+7.05 Units / 33% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Over in 12 of their last 18 games at home (+5.25 Units / 25% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 34 of their last 64 games (+4.50 Units / 6% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 19 games (+4.45 Units / 19% ROI)

Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Braves are 42-50 against the Run Line (-7.45 Units / -7.06% ROI).

  • 51-41 when betting on the Moneyline for -13.45 Units / -8.68% ROI
  • 32-55 when betting on the total runs Over for -27.65 Units / -27.59% ROI
  • 55-32 when betting on the total runs Under for +19.55 Units / 19.11% ROI

Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Padres are 48-48 against the Run Line (+1.4 Units / 1.17% ROI).

  • 49-47 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.35 Units / -5.89% ROI
  • 52-43 when betting on the total runs Over for +5.2 Units / 4.97% ROI
  • 43-52 when betting on the total runs Under for -14.65 Units / -13.73% ROI

Padres vs Braves Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Marcell Ozuna (ATL) 0.5 +270 0.5 -350
Austin Riley (ATL) 0.5 +350 0.5 -450
Adam Duvall (ATL) 0.5 +375 0.5 -550
Matt Olson (ATL) 0.5 +375 0.5 -550
Jarred Kelenic (ATL) 0.5 +475 0.5 -650

Padres vs Braves Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Austin Riley (ATL) 0.5 -275 0.5 +195
Manny Machado (SD) 0.5 -250 0.5 +190
Jackson Merrill (SD) 0.5 -250 0.5 +190
Donovan Solano (SD) 0.5 -250 0.5 +175
Jake Cronenworth (SD) 0.5 -250 0.5 +185

Padres vs Braves RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Marcell Ozuna (ATL) 0.5 +120 0.5 -160
Austin Riley (ATL) 0.5 +140 0.5 -185
Matt Olson (ATL) 0.5 +145 0.5 -190
Manny Machado (SD) 0.5 +150 0.5 -200
Adam Duvall (ATL) 0.5 +170 0.5 -225

Padres vs Braves Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Spencer Schwellenbach (ATL) 3.5 -175 3.5 +130

Spencer Schwellenbach has a strike rate of 71% (428/603) this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 36 total IP; League Avg: 65% — 99th Percentile.

Opponents have a chase percentage of 36% (100/274) against Spencer Schwellenbach this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 36 total IP; League Avg: 28% — 100th Percentile.

Spencer Schwellenbach has thrown at least two strikes in his first three pitches to 78% (93/120) of opposing batters this season — tied for highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 36 total IP; League Avg: 65% — 100th Percentile.

Spencer Schwellenbach has allowed three-ball counts to 10% of batters they faced (17/162 PA’s) this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 36 total IP; League Avg: 19% — 100th Percentile.

Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Opponents are hitting .332 (79-for-238) against Randy Vasquez this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 36 total IP; League Avg: .243 — 0 Percentile.

Randy Vasquez has allowed a slugging percentage of .670 (61 Total Bases / 91 ABs) versus the top of the order this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 36 total IP; League Avg: .426 — 0 Percentile.

Hitters batting in the top of the order have hit .396 against Randy Vasquez this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 36 total IP; League Avg: .253 — 0 Percentile.

Opponents have a two strike miss rate of just 14% (29/208) against Randy Vasquez this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 36 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 0 Percentile.

Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Padres

The Braves are 5-3 (.625) after a win as underdogs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .422.

The Braves are 18-83 (.178) when trailing entering the 8th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .101.

The Braves are 52-24 (.684) after a home loss since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .522.

The Braves are 253-140 (.644) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .535.

Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Braves

The Padres are just 1-108 (.009) when trailing entering the 9th inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .053.

The Padres are just 0-42 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .055.

The Padres are just 4-169 (.023) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .050.

The Padres are just 11-42 (.208) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .276.

Braves hitters are slugging .470 against LHP since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .406.

Braves hitters are slugging .459 against RHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .406.

Braves hitters have an OBP of .379 (1,170 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .330.

The Braves had an average Exit Velocity of 91.0 MPH in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0.

Padres hitters have an OBP of .556 (18 PA’s) against LHP this month (5 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .320.

Padres hitters have not struck out in 15 PA’s against LHP over the past seven days (4 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Padres hitters have not struck out in 18 PA’s against LHP this month (5 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

The Padres are batting .529 against LHP this month (5 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .249.

Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Braves pitchers since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

The Braves pitchers allowed their opponents to score first in just 27% of their games on the road in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.

The Braves pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 39% of their games at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 56%.

Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Padres pitchers allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.9 MPH (3,921 batted balls) in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0.

The Padres pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 88.1 MPH since last season (6,251 balls in play) — best in MLB; League Avg: 88.9

The Padres pitchers allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 87.9 MPH in the 2023 season (3,921 balls in play) — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0

Padres pitchers have a strikeout rate of 23% this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Padres vs. Braves Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Glenn Otto (San Diego Padres): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
  • Reiss Knehr (San Diego Padres): Elbow, Out
  • Drew Carlton (San Diego Padres): Elbow, Out
  • Luis Patino (San Diego Padres): Elbow, 15-Day IL
  • Tucupita Marcano (San Diego Padres): Knee, 10-Day IL
  • Evan White (Atlanta Braves): Hip, Day-To-Day
  • Angel Perdomo (Atlanta Braves): Elbow, 15-Day IL
  • Ian Anderson (Atlanta Braves): Elbow, Out
  • Sean Murphy (Atlanta Braves): Oblique, 10-Day IL

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Our BetMGM editors and authors are sports experts with a wealth of knowledge of the sports industry at all levels. Their coverage includes sports news, previews and predictions, fun facts, and betting.