Braves vs Phillies Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jul 25

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jul 25, 2022, 3:35 PM
  • The Braves (58-39) are -185 favorites vs the Phillies (49-46)
  • Braves starting pitcher: Max Fried (10-3), 2.64 ERA
  • Phillies starting pitcher: Ranger Suárez (7-5), 4.07 ERA
  • Watch the game on MLB Network

The Atlanta Braves (-185) visit Citizens Bank Park to take on the Philadelphia Phillies (+150) on Monday, July 25, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05pm EDT in Philadelphia.

The Braves are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-110).

The Braves vs Phillies Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Braves are 58-39 against the spread (ATS), while the Phillies are 49-46 ATS.

Braves vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Braves-1.5 -110O 8.5 -115-185
Phillies +1.5 -110U 8.5 -105+150

Braves vs Phillies Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Monday‘s matchup with 54.8% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Braves and Phillies and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Phillies vs Braves and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Braves Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Matt Olson has hit the Singles Under in 59 of his last 85 games (+18.65 Units / 13% ROI)
  • Austin Riley has hit the Hits Over in 35 of his last 54 games (+17.90 Units / 21% ROI)
  • Dansby Swanson has hit the Hits Over in 50 of his last 83 games (+16.10 Units / 13% ROI)
  • Dansby Swanson has hit the Singles Over in 49 of his last 85 games (+14.30 Units / 15% ROI)
  • Ronald Acuna Jr. has hit the RBIs Under in 18 of his last 21 games (+12.85 Units / 34% ROI)

Best Phillies Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Nick Castellanos has hit the Runs Under in 34 of his last 44 games (+18.10 Units / 25% ROI)
  • Kyle Schwarber has hit the Singles Under in 19 of his last 22 games (+13.40 Units / 31% ROI)
  • Kyle Schwarber has hit the Hits Under in 10 of his last 13 games (+12.20 Units / 94% ROI)
  • Jean Segura has hit the Singles Over in 16 of his last 19 games at home (+12.20 Units / 51% ROI)
  • Nick Castellanos has hit the Total Bases Under in 22 of his last 30 games (+10.80 Units / 24% ROI)

Phillies vs Braves Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alec Bohm 0.5 +525 0.5 -1200
J.T. Realmuto 0.5 +425 0.5 -800
Johan Camargo 0.5 +600 0.5 -1600
Kyle Schwarber 0.5 +340 0.5 -650
Matt Vierling 0.5 +525 0.5 -1200

Phillies vs Braves Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alec Bohm 0.5 -200 0.5 +140
J.T. Realmuto 0.5 -200 0.5 +140
Johan Camargo 0.5 -110 0.5 -125
Kyle Schwarber 0.5 -185 0.5 +130
Matt Vierling 0.5 -225 0.5 +155

Phillies vs Braves RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alec Bohm 0.5 +210 0.5 -350
J.T. Realmuto 0.5 +185 0.5 -275
Johan Camargo 0.5 +275 0.5 -450
Kyle Schwarber 0.5 +195 0.5 -300
Matt Vierling 0.5 +270 0.5 -450

Phillies vs Braves Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Ranger Suarez 4.5 -105 4.5 -135
Max Fried 5.5 -110 5.5 -125
  • The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 48 of their last 71 games (+20.57 Units / 23% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 35 of their last 47 games (+14.45 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 20 of their last 30 away games (+8.35 Units / 21% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 20 of their last 28 away games (+7.20 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in their last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 91% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 26 of their last 44 games (+11.05 Units / 21% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 51 of their last 90 games (+9.10 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Under in 19 of their last 30 games (+7.85 Units / 24% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 28 of their last 45 games (+7.20 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 10 of their last 19 games (+0.40 Units / 2% ROI)

Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 50-47 against the Run Line (-1.2 Units / -0.98% ROI).

  • 58-39 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.75 Units / 1.1% ROI
  • 49-45 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.2 Units / -0.19% ROI
  • 45-49 when betting on the total runs Under for -9 Units / -8.43% ROI

Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 49-46 against the Run Line (+3.65 Units / 3.16% ROI).

  • 49-46 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.9 Units / -4.65% ROI
  • 48-44 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.15 Units / -0.14% ROI
  • 44-48 when betting on the total runs Under for -8.65 Units / -8.26% ROI

35 of Max Fried’s breaking pitch strikeouts are backdoor on breaking pitches since the start of last season — 2nd most in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 128 total IP; League Avg: nan — 99th Percentile.

Max Fried has allowed a slugging percentage of just .195 (17 Total Bases / 87 ABs) with runners in scoring position this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .368 — 100th Percentile.

Max Fried has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 73.7 MPH on pitches out of the zone since the start of last season (131 balls in play) — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 127 total IP; League Avg: 80.4

Max Fried has not allowed a home run in any of the last 47.0 innings he’s appeared — Zach Pop has the longest active streak at 53.2.

Ranger Suárez: Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Ranger Suarez has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 85.3 MPH on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season (84 balls in play) — tied for best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 127 total IP; League Avg: 89.9

Ranger Suarez has an average spin rate of 1877.6 RPM on fastballs since the start of last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 127 total IP; League Avg: 2216.8 — 0 Percentile.

Opponents have a line drive rate of just 13% (16/122) against Ranger Suarez with runners in scoring position since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 128 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 99th Percentile.

Ranger Suarez has an average spin rate of 1883.6 RPM on fastballs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 46 total IP; League Avg: 2219.3 — first Percentile.

Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies

The Braves are 24-3 (.889) when scoring in the first inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .662.

The Braves are 33-21 (.611) at home this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .520.

The Braves are 6-2 (.750) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Braves are 34-10 (.773) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .708.

Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Braves

The Phillies are just 1-10 (.091) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Phillies are 8-34 (.190) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .085.

The Phillies are 25-22 (.532) on the road this season — tied for 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .480.

The Phillies are just 35-6 (.854) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .886.

Braves hitters are slugging .693 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .564.

Braves hitters are slugging .499 on pitches 95 mph or greater this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .393.

Braves hitters have 227 extra-base hits out of 544 total hits (42%) against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 35%.

Braves hitters have missed on 29% of swings this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Phillies hitters are slugging .610 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .564.

Phillies hitters have an OBP of just .177 (175 PA’s) with two-strikes over the last 14 days (9 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .248.

Phillies hitters have an OBP of just .278 (511 PA’s) against RHP this month (18 games) — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .315.

Phillies hitters have 128 strikeouts in 511 PA’s (25%) against RHP this month (18 games) — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 29% when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Braves pitchers this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Phillies pitchers since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Phillies pitchers have allowed a run just 23% of the time after an opposing score this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.

The Phillies have won 39% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.

The Phillies pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 87.9 MPH this season (2,286 balls in play) — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 88.7

Phillies vs. Braves Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Hans Crouse (Phillies): COVID-19, D60
  • Zachary Eflin (Phillies): Knee, D15
  • James McArthur (Phillies): Elbow, D60
  • Ryan Sherriff (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
  • Bryce Harper (Phillies): Thumb, D10
  • Jean Segura (Phillies): Finger, D60
  • Samuel Coonrod (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
  • Nicholas Maton (Phillies): Shoulder, D10
  • Damon Jones (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
  • Ozhanio Albies (Braves): Foot, D60
  • Darren O’Day (Braves): Calf, D15
  • Kirby Yates (Braves): Elbow, D60
  • Michael Soroka (Braves): Achilles, D60
  • Robinson Canó (Braves): Head, Day-to-Day
  • Manuel Piña (Braves): Wrist, D60
  • Luke Jackson (Braves): Elbow, D60
  • Adam Duvall (Braves): Wrist, D10

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.