- The Braves (58-39) are -185 favorites vs the Phillies (49-46)
- Braves starting pitcher: Max Fried (10-3), 2.64 ERA
- Phillies starting pitcher: Ranger Suárez (7-5), 4.07 ERA
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The Atlanta Braves (-185) visit Citizens Bank Park to take on the Philadelphia Phillies (+150) on Monday, July 25, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05pm EDT in Philadelphia.
The Braves are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-110).
The Braves vs Phillies Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Braves are 58-39 against the spread (ATS), while the Phillies are 49-46 ATS.
Braves vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Braves | -1.5 -110 | O 8.5 -115 | -185 |
| Phillies | +1.5 -110 | U 8.5 -105 | +150 |
Braves vs Phillies Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Monday‘s matchup with 54.8% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Braves and Phillies and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Braves Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Matt Olson has hit the Singles Under in 59 of his last 85 games (+18.65 Units / 13% ROI)
- Austin Riley has hit the Hits Over in 35 of his last 54 games (+17.90 Units / 21% ROI)
- Dansby Swanson has hit the Hits Over in 50 of his last 83 games (+16.10 Units / 13% ROI)
- Dansby Swanson has hit the Singles Over in 49 of his last 85 games (+14.30 Units / 15% ROI)
- Ronald Acuna Jr. has hit the RBIs Under in 18 of his last 21 games (+12.85 Units / 34% ROI)
Best Phillies Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Nick Castellanos has hit the Runs Under in 34 of his last 44 games (+18.10 Units / 25% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Singles Under in 19 of his last 22 games (+13.40 Units / 31% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Hits Under in 10 of his last 13 games (+12.20 Units / 94% ROI)
- Jean Segura has hit the Singles Over in 16 of his last 19 games at home (+12.20 Units / 51% ROI)
- Nick Castellanos has hit the Total Bases Under in 22 of his last 30 games (+10.80 Units / 24% ROI)
Phillies vs Braves Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alec Bohm | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
| Johan Camargo | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Kyle Schwarber | 0.5 +340 | 0.5 -650 |
| Matt Vierling | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
Phillies vs Braves Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alec Bohm | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +140 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +140 |
| Johan Camargo | 0.5 -110 | 0.5 -125 |
| Kyle Schwarber | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +130 |
| Matt Vierling | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +155 |
Phillies vs Braves RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alec Bohm | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -350 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -275 |
| Johan Camargo | 0.5 +275 | 0.5 -450 |
| Kyle Schwarber | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -300 |
| Matt Vierling | 0.5 +270 | 0.5 -450 |
Phillies vs Braves Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ranger Suarez | 4.5 -105 | 4.5 -135 |
| Max Fried | 5.5 -110 | 5.5 -125 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Braves Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 48 of their last 71 games (+20.57 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 35 of their last 47 games (+14.45 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 20 of their last 30 away games (+8.35 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 20 of their last 28 away games (+7.20 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in their last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 91% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Phillies: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 26 of their last 44 games (+11.05 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 51 of their last 90 games (+9.10 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Under in 19 of their last 30 games (+7.85 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 28 of their last 45 games (+7.20 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 10 of their last 19 games (+0.40 Units / 2% ROI)
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 50-47 against the Run Line (-1.2 Units / -0.98% ROI).
- 58-39 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.75 Units / 1.1% ROI
- 49-45 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.2 Units / -0.19% ROI
- 45-49 when betting on the total runs Under for -9 Units / -8.43% ROI
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 49-46 against the Run Line (+3.65 Units / 3.16% ROI).
- 49-46 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.9 Units / -4.65% ROI
- 48-44 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.15 Units / -0.14% ROI
- 44-48 when betting on the total runs Under for -8.65 Units / -8.26% ROI
Max Fried: Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
35 of Max Fried’s breaking pitch strikeouts are backdoor on breaking pitches since the start of last season — 2nd most in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 128 total IP; League Avg: nan — 99th Percentile.
Max Fried has allowed a slugging percentage of just .195 (17 Total Bases / 87 ABs) with runners in scoring position this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .368 — 100th Percentile.
Max Fried has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 73.7 MPH on pitches out of the zone since the start of last season (131 balls in play) — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 127 total IP; League Avg: 80.4
Max Fried has not allowed a home run in any of the last 47.0 innings he’s appeared — Zach Pop has the longest active streak at 53.2.
Ranger Suárez: Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Ranger Suarez has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 85.3 MPH on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season (84 balls in play) — tied for best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 127 total IP; League Avg: 89.9
Ranger Suarez has an average spin rate of 1877.6 RPM on fastballs since the start of last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 127 total IP; League Avg: 2216.8 — 0 Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 13% (16/122) against Ranger Suarez with runners in scoring position since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 128 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 99th Percentile.
Ranger Suarez has an average spin rate of 1883.6 RPM on fastballs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 46 total IP; League Avg: 2219.3 — first Percentile.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Braves are 24-3 (.889) when scoring in the first inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .662.
The Braves are 33-21 (.611) at home this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .520.
The Braves are 6-2 (.750) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Braves are 34-10 (.773) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .708.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Phillies are just 1-10 (.091) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Phillies are 8-34 (.190) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .085.
The Phillies are 25-22 (.532) on the road this season — tied for 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .480.
The Phillies are just 35-6 (.854) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .886.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
Braves hitters are slugging .693 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .564.
Braves hitters are slugging .499 on pitches 95 mph or greater this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .393.
Braves hitters have 227 extra-base hits out of 544 total hits (42%) against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
Braves hitters have missed on 29% of swings this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
Phillies hitters are slugging .610 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .564.
Phillies hitters have an OBP of just .177 (175 PA’s) with two-strikes over the last 14 days (9 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Phillies hitters have an OBP of just .278 (511 PA’s) against RHP this month (18 games) — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .315.
Phillies hitters have 128 strikeouts in 511 PA’s (25%) against RHP this month (18 games) — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 29% when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Braves pitchers this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Phillies pitchers since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Phillies pitchers have allowed a run just 23% of the time after an opposing score this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
The Phillies have won 39% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
The Phillies pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 87.9 MPH this season (2,286 balls in play) — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 88.7
Phillies vs. Braves Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Hans Crouse (Phillies): COVID-19, D60
- Zachary Eflin (Phillies): Knee, D15
- James McArthur (Phillies): Elbow, D60
- Ryan Sherriff (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
- Bryce Harper (Phillies): Thumb, D10
- Jean Segura (Phillies): Finger, D60
- Samuel Coonrod (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
- Nicholas Maton (Phillies): Shoulder, D10
- Damon Jones (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
- Ozhanio Albies (Braves): Foot, D60
- Darren O’Day (Braves): Calf, D15
- Kirby Yates (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Michael Soroka (Braves): Achilles, D60
- Robinson Canó (Braves): Head, Day-to-Day
- Manuel Piña (Braves): Wrist, D60
- Luke Jackson (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Adam Duvall (Braves): Wrist, D10
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