Braves vs Phillies Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jul 27

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(AP Photo)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jul 27, 2022, 3:31 PM
  • The (64-32) are favorites vs the (64-32)
  • Braves starting pitcher: Charles Morton (5-4), 4.20 ERA
  • Phillies starting pitcher: Kyle Gibson (5-4), 4.69 ERA
  • Watch the game on MLB Network

The Atlanta Braves () visit Citizens Bank Park to take on the Philadelphia Phillies () on Wednesday, July 27, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 12:35pm EDT in Philadelphia.

The are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at ().

The Braves vs Phillies Over/Under is total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Braves are 59-40 against the spread (ATS), while the Phillies are 50-47 ATS.

Braves vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Braves O
Phillies U

Braves vs Phillies Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Wednesday‘s matchup with 65.6% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Braves and Phillies and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Phillies vs Braves and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Braves Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Matt Olson has hit the Singles Under in 61 of his last 87 games (+20.65 Units / 15% ROI)
  • Austin Riley has hit the Hits Over in 37 of his last 56 games (+19.90 Units / 22% ROI)
  • Dansby Swanson has hit the Hits Over in 51 of his last 85 games (+16.10 Units / 13% ROI)
  • Ronald Acuna Jr. has hit the RBIs Under in 20 of his last 23 games (+14.85 Units / 35% ROI)
  • Dansby Swanson has hit the Singles Over in 50 of his last 87 games (+14.05 Units / 14% ROI)

Best Phillies Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Nick Castellanos has hit the Runs Under in 35 of his last 46 games (+16.80 Units / 22% ROI)
  • Kyle Schwarber has hit the Singles Under in 21 of his last 24 games (+15.40 Units / 32% ROI)
  • Nick Castellanos has hit the RBIs Under in 26 of his last 33 games at home (+12.80 Units / 19% ROI)
  • Alec Bohm has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 14 games at home (+12.60 Units / 44% ROI)
  • Kyle Schwarber has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 15 games (+12.50 Units / 83% ROI)

Phillies vs Braves Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alec Bohm 0.5 +625 0.5 -2000
Bryson Stott 0.5 +500 0.5 -1100
Darick Hall 0.5 +333 0.5 -600
Didi Gregorius 0.5 +575 0.5 -1400
J.T. Realmuto 0.5 +425 0.5 -900

Phillies vs Braves Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alec Bohm 0.5 -200 0.5 +140
Bryson Stott 0.5 -165 0.5 +120
Darick Hall 0.5 -155 0.5 +110
Didi Gregorius 0.5 -160 0.5 +115
J.T. Realmuto 0.5 -225 0.5 +160

Phillies vs Braves RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alec Bohm 0.5 +230 0.5 -350
Bryson Stott 0.5 +230 0.5 -350
Darick Hall 0.5 +165 0.5 -250
Didi Gregorius 0.5 +220 0.5 -350
J.T. Realmuto 0.5 +190 0.5 -275

Phillies vs Braves Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Kyle Gibson 4.5 -145 4.5 +105
Charlie Morton 6.5 -120 6.5 -115
  • The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 49 of their last 73 games (+20.42 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 36 of their last 49 games (+13.75 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 28 of their last 44 away games (+9.45 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in their last 8 games (+8.05 Units / 91% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 8 of their last 9 games (+6.90 Units / 70% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 53 of their last 92 games (+11.15 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 27 of their last 46 games (+10.50 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 29 of their last 47 games (+7.75 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Under in 19 of their last 32 games (+5.60 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 11 of their last 21 games (+0.15 Units / 1% ROI)

Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 51-48 against the Run Line (-0.95 Units / -0.76% ROI).

  • 59-40 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.05 Units / 0.65% ROI
  • 51-45 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.85 Units / 1.7% ROI
  • 45-51 when betting on the total runs Under for -11.25 Units / -10.32% ROI

Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 50-47 against the Run Line (+3.1 Units / 2.63% ROI).

  • 50-47 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.35 Units / -4.15% ROI
  • 50-44 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.9 Units / 1.78% ROI
  • 44-50 when betting on the total runs Under for -10.9 Units / -10.19% ROI

Charlie Morton has a first-pitch strike rate of just 57% (253/445) this season — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 63% — fourth Percentile.

Charlie Morton has thrown his curveball 43% of the time (1,011/2,332) vs left-handed batters since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 129 total CB; League Avg: 18% — 98th Percentile.

Charlie Morton has a strikeout rate of 27% (121 SO in 444 PAs) this season — 10th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 86th Percentile.

Charlie Morton has thrown his curveball 43% of the time (414/951) with runners in scoring position since the start of last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 20% — 100th Percentile.

Kyle Gibson: Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Kyle Gibson has a first-pitch strike rate of just 57% (244/427) this season — 4th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 63% — sixth Percentile.

Kyle Gibson has a strikeout rate of 23% (17 SO in 73 PAs) in PAs ending on inside fastballs this season — 6th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 15% — 90th Percentile.

Kyle Gibson has allowed a slugging percentage of just .265 (18 Total Bases / 68 ABs) on low fastballs this season — 6th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .423 — 90th Percentile.

Kyle Gibson has a strikeout rate of just 6% (3 SO in 54 PAs) in PAs ending on elevated fastballs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 48 total IP; League Avg: 24% — first Percentile.

Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies

The Braves are 40-5 (.889) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .794.

The Braves are just 2-32 (.059) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .085.

The Braves are 25-6 (.806) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .718.

The Braves are 5-3 (.625) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Braves

The Phillies are just 1-10 (.091) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Phillies are 9-35 (.205) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .085.

The Phillies are 10-35 (.222) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .114.

The Phillies are just 35-6 (.854) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .886.

Braves hitters are slugging .498 on pitches 95 mph or greater this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .393.

Braves hitters are slugging .697 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .563.

Braves hitters are slugging .531 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .449.

Braves hitters have 228 extra-base hits out of 549 total hits (41%) against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 35%.

Phillies hitters have put just 35% of their swings in play against LHP since the start of last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.

Phillies hitters have an OBP of just .173 (173 PA’s) with two-strikes over the last 14 days (9 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .250.

The Phillies are batting just .112 with two-strikes over the last 14 days (9 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .177.

Phillies hitters have drawn 104 walks in 1,091 PA’s (10%) against LHP this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Braves pitchers this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 30% in close and late situations this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

Phillies pitchers have walked 149 of 2,289 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Phillies pitchers this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Phillies pitchers since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Phillies pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.8 MPH (2,338 batted balls) this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 88.7.

Phillies vs. Braves Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Hans Crouse (Phillies): COVID-19, D60
  • Zachary Eflin (Phillies): Knee, D15
  • James McArthur (Phillies): Elbow, D60
  • Ryan Sherriff (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
  • Bryce Harper (Phillies): Thumb, D10
  • Jean Segura (Phillies): Finger, D60
  • Samuel Coonrod (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
  • Damon Jones (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
  • Ozhanio Albies (Braves): Foot, D60
  • Darren O’Day (Braves): Calf, D15
  • Kirby Yates (Braves): Elbow, D60
  • Michael Soroka (Braves): Achilles, D60
  • Manuel Piña (Braves): Wrist, D60
  • Luke Jackson (Braves): Elbow, D60
  • Adam Duvall (Braves): Wrist, D10

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.