- The Braves are -150 favorites vs the Phillies
- Braves starting pitcher: Spencer Strider
- Phillies starting pitcher: Ranger Suárez
- Watch the game on TBS
The Atlanta Braves (-150) visit Citizens Bank Park to take on the Philadelphia Phillies (+125) on Tuesday, June 20, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Philadelphia.
The Braves are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+110).
The Braves vs Phillies Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Braves are 46-26 against the spread (ATS), while the Phillies are 29-43 ATS.
Braves vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Braves | -1.5 +110 | O 8.5 -105 | -150 |
| Phillies | +1.5 -135 | U 8.5 -115 | +125 |
Braves vs Phillies Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Tuesday‘s MLB matchup with 69.4% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Braves and Phillies and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Braves Player Prop Bets Today:
- Michael Harris II has hit the Runs Under in 30 of his last 38 games (+16.70 Units / 26% ROI)
- Michael Harris II has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 33 of his last 48 games (+14.95 Units / 25% ROI)
- Michael Harris II has hit the Total Bases Under in 26 of his last 36 games (+13.70 Units / 23% ROI)
- Orlando Arcia has hit the Singles Over in 19 of his last 26 games (+12.15 Units / 42% ROI)
- Ronald Acuna Jr. has hit the RBIs Over in 12 of his last 18 away games (+12.00 Units / 67% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Nick Castellanos has hit the Hits Over in 33 of his last 50 games (+13.60 Units / 15% ROI)
- J.T. Realmuto has hit the Hits Under in 8 of his last 10 games at home (+11.50 Units / 115% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 18 of his last 25 games at home (+10.05 Units / 32% ROI)
- Josh Harrison has hit the Runs Under in his last 10 games (+10.00 Units / 41% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Singles Under in his last 10 games at home (+10.00 Units / 41% ROI)
Phillies vs Braves Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper | 0.5 +300 | 0.5 -500 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Kyle Schwarber | 0.5 +275 | 0.5 -400 |
| Brandon Marsh | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Nick Castellanos | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -900 |
Phillies vs Braves Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 -140 | 0.5 +105 |
| Matt Olson | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Kyle Schwarber | 0.5 -140 | 0.5 +105 |
| Brandon Marsh | 0.5 -110 | 0.5 -120 |
Phillies vs Braves RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
| Kyle Schwarber | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Brandon Marsh | 0.5 +310 | 0.5 -450 |
| Nick Castellanos | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -300 |
Phillies vs Braves Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ranger Suarez | 4.5 -130 | 4.5 +100 |
| Spencer Strider | 8.5 -150 | 8.5 +115 |
Braves Best Bets Today:
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in 38 of their last 63 games (+14.00 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 45 of their last 72 games (+13.20 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 8 of their last 9 games (+8.00 Units / 39% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 13 of their last 15 games (+7.85 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Team Total Over in 11 of their last 14 games (+7.70 Units / 47% ROI)
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 13 of their last 15 games (+10.90 Units / 48% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Under in 30 of their last 55 games (+10.25 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 19 of their last 29 games at home (+8.30 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 10 of their last 14 games (+7.30 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 17 of their last 26 games at home (+6.80 Units / 22% ROI)
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 34-38 against the Run Line (-4.35 Units / -5.1% ROI).
- 46-26 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.65 Units / 4.64% ROI
- 41-28 when betting on the total runs Over for +10.3 Units / 13.03% ROI
- 28-41 when betting on the total runs Under for -17.35 Units / -21.85% ROI
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 29-43 against the Run Line (-21.7 Units / -23.46% ROI).
- 38-34 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.85 Units / -4.84% ROI
- 28-37 when betting on the total runs Over for -12.35 Units / -15.64% ROI
- 37-28 when betting on the total runs Under for +6.45 Units / 8.11% ROI
Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 39% (287/734) against Spencer Strider this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 100th Percentile.
Spencer Strider has a strikeout rate of 39% (127 SO in 324 PAs) this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of 45% (54/121) against Spencer Strider on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 27% — 100th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of 45% (156/347) against Spencer Strider this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 27% — 100th Percentile.
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .037 (1 GB hit out of 27 GBs) against Ranger Suarez with runners on base this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 28 total IP; League Avg: .257 — 100th Percentile.
Ranger Suarez has an average spin rate of 1910.7 RPM on fastballs since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 92 total IP; League Avg: 2233.6 — second Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .040 (1-for-25) against Ranger Suarez with two-strikes over the last 14 days (2 games) — 2nd best in NL over the last two weeks; League Avg: .178 — 97th Percentile.
Ranger Suarez has pitched 12.1 straight innings without allowing an earned run — Andrew Nardi has the longest active streak at 20.1.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Braves are 37-23 (.617) when allowing 2 or more home runs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .301.
The Braves are 13-9 (.591) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .266.
The Braves are 11-5 (.688) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .392.
The Braves are 4-1 (.800) after a win as underdogs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .455.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Phillies are 15-86 (.149) when trailing entering the 8th inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .091.
The Phillies are 23-14 (.622) after a win this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .523.
The Phillies are 8-3 (.727) after a win as underdogs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .455.
The Phillies are just 27-35 (.435) after a loss as favorites since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .591.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
Braves hitters are slugging .545 against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .419.
Braves hitters are slugging .447 against RHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .397.
Braves hitters have an OPS of .903 (694 PA’s) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .743.
Braves hitters have an OPS of .880 (1,630 PA’s) against starting pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .745.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
Phillies hitters have chased 35% of pitches out of the zone against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Phillies hitters have drawn 51 walks in 885 PA’s (6%) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Phillies hitters have an OBP of just .295 (885 PA’s) against LHP this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .324.
Phillies hitters have an OBP of .335 (1,861 PA’s) against RHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .319.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
The Braves pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 29% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
The Braves pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 18% of their games on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 29% against Braves pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Braves pitchers have won 60% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Phillies pitchers have walked 138 of 2,064 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 51% with two-strikes over the last 14 days (12 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 31% in close and late situations this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Phillies pitchers have walked 11 of 229 batters (5%) over the past seven days (6 games) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Phillies vs. Braves Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Seranthony DomÃnguez (Phillies): Oblique, D15
- Rhys Hoskins (Phillies): ACL, D60
- Noah Song (Phillies): Back, D60
- Jesse Chavez (Braves): Shin, D15
- Dylan Lee (Braves): Shoulder, D15
- Max Fried (Braves): Forearm, D60
- Tyler Matzek (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Ehire Adrianza (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Kyle Wright (Braves): Shoulder, D60
- Kolby Allard (Braves): Oblique, D60
- Sean Murphy (Braves): Hamstring, Day-to-Day
- Huascar Ynoa (Braves): Elbow, D60
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