- The Phillies are -130 favorites vs the Braves
- Braves starting pitcher: AJ Smith-Shawver
- Phillies starting pitcher: Aaron Nola
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The Atlanta Braves (+110) visit Citizens Bank Park to take on the Philadelphia Phillies (-130) on Wednesday, June 21, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Philadelphia.
The Phillies are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+150).
The Braves vs Phillies Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Braves are 47-26 against the spread (ATS), while the Phillies are 29-44 ATS.
Braves vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Braves | +1.5 -185 | O 8.5 +100 | +110 |
| Phillies | -1.5 +150 | U 8.5 -120 | -130 |
Braves vs Phillies Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Wednesday‘s MLB matchup with 58.3% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Braves and Phillies and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Braves Player Prop Bets Today:
- Michael Harris II has hit the Runs Under in 31 of his last 39 games (+17.70 Units / 26% ROI)
- Michael Harris II has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 34 of his last 49 games (+15.95 Units / 26% ROI)
- Ronald Acuna Jr. has hit the RBIs Over in 13 of his last 19 away games (+13.55 Units / 71% ROI)
- Orlando Arcia has hit the Singles Over in 20 of his last 27 games (+13.25 Units / 44% ROI)
- Michael Harris II has hit the Total Bases Under in 26 of his last 37 games (+12.70 Units / 21% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Nick Castellanos has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 27 games (+13.60 Units / 30% ROI)
- J.T. Realmuto has hit the Hits Under in 8 of his last 11 games at home (+10.50 Units / 95% ROI)
- Kody Clemens has hit the Runs Under in his last 10 games (+10.00 Units / 46% ROI)
- Josh Harrison has hit the Runs Under in his last 10 games (+10.00 Units / 41% ROI)
- Trea Turner has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 25 games at home (+9.40 Units / 28% ROI)
Phillies vs Braves Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Eddie Rosario | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Bryce Harper | 0.5 +290 | 0.5 -500 |
| Matt Olson | 0.5 +280 | 0.5 -450 |
| Michael Harris | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Kyle Schwarber | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -300 |
Phillies vs Braves Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Eddie Rosario | 0.5 -145 | 0.5 +110 |
| Bryce Harper | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Matt Olson | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +120 |
| Michael Harris | 0.5 -150 | 0.5 +115 |
| Kyle Schwarber | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +140 |
Phillies vs Braves RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Eddie Rosario | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
| Bryce Harper | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Matt Olson | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Michael Harris | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -350 |
| Kyle Schwarber | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
Phillies vs Braves Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| AJ Smith-Shawver | 4.5 -135 | 4.5 +100 |
| Aaron Nola | 7.5 +115 | 7.5 -155 |
Braves Best Bets Today:
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in 38 of their last 64 games (+12.80 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 45 of their last 73 games (+12.00 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 16 games (+8.85 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 12 of their last 16 games (+7.90 Units / 40% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Team Total Over in 11 of their last 15 games (+6.50 Units / 37% ROI)
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Under in 31 of their last 56 games (+11.25 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 13 of their last 16 games (+9.90 Units / 42% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 20 of their last 30 games at home (+9.30 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 11 of their last 15 games (+8.50 Units / 37% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 18 of their last 27 games at home (+7.80 Units / 24% ROI)
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 35-38 against the Run Line (-3.3 Units / -3.82% ROI).
- 47-26 when betting on the Moneyline for +6.65 Units / 5.4% ROI
- 41-29 when betting on the total runs Over for +9.1 Units / 11.34% ROI
- 29-41 when betting on the total runs Under for -16.35 Units / -20.34% ROI
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 29-44 against the Run Line (-22.95 Units / -24.48% ROI).
- 38-35 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.85 Units / -5.78% ROI
- 28-38 when betting on the total runs Over for -13.55 Units / -16.91% ROI
- 38-28 when betting on the total runs Under for +7.45 Units / 9.25% ROI
Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents batted just .135 (13-for-96) against Garrett Whitlock in close and late situations in 2022 — 3rd best among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: .223 — 97th Percentile.
Garrett Whitlock allowed an OBP of just .215 (130 PA’s) vs left-handed batters in 2022 — 6th best among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: .306 — 94th Percentile.
Garrett Whitlock walked 4 of 130 left-handed batters (3%) in 2022 — 4th best among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 9% — 97th Percentile.
Division opponents batted just .157 against Garrett Whitlock (17-for-108) in 2022 — 8th best among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: .223 — 92nd Percentile.
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Aaron Nola has allowed a slugging percentage of 1.021 (48 Total Bases / 47 ABs) when behind in the count this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .605 — third Percentile.
Aaron Nola has thrown his curveball 30% of the time (228/769) when he’s behind in the count since last season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 12% — 96th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .156 (5-for-32) against Aaron Nola on low fastballs this season — 6th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .251 — 90th Percentile.
Aaron Nola has allowed an OBP of just .199 (211 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — 10th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .235 — 86th Percentile.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Braves are 37-23 (.617) when allowing 2 or more home runs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .301.
The Braves are 14-9 (.609) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .268.
The Braves are 11-5 (.688) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .392.
The Braves are 16-8 (.667) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .317.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Phillies are 15-87 (.147) when trailing entering the 8th inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .091.
The Phillies are just 3-20 (.130) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .268.
The Phillies are just 7-14 (.333) after a road loss this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .459.
The Phillies are 8-4 (.667) after a win as underdogs this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .454.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
Braves hitters are slugging .542 against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .418.
Braves hitters have an OPS of .899 (723 PA’s) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .741.
Braves hitters are slugging .474 against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .405.
Braves hitters are slugging .303 with two-strikes since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .265.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
Phillies hitters have chased 35% of pitches out of the zone against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Phillies hitters have drawn 51 walks in 888 PA’s (6%) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Phillies hitter’ K:BB ratio is 4.4 against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 2.7.
The Phillies are batting .284 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .264.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
Braves pitchers have won 60% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 29% against Braves pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
The Braves pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 30% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Braves pitchers have won 55% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Phillies pitchers have walked 232 of 3,498 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the 2021 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Phillies pitchers have induced opposing hitters to ground into just 31 double plays in 480 opportunities (7%) this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
Phillies pitchers have walked 140 of 2,073 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 31% in close and late situations this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Phillies vs. Braves Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Seranthony DomÃnguez (Phillies): Oblique, D15
- Rhys Hoskins (Phillies): ACL, D60
- Noah Song (Phillies): Back, D60
- Jesse Chavez (Braves): Shin, D15
- Dylan Lee (Braves): Shoulder, D15
- Max Fried (Braves): Forearm, D60
- Tyler Matzek (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Ehire Adrianza (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Kyle Wright (Braves): Shoulder, D60
- Kolby Allard (Braves): Oblique, D60
- Sean Murphy (Braves): Hamstring, Day-to-Day
- Huascar Ynoa (Braves): Elbow, D60
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