- The – are favorites vs the –
- Braves starting pitcher: Bryce Elder
- Phillies starting pitcher: Aaron Nola
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The Atlanta Braves () visit Citizens Bank Park to take on the Philadelphia Phillies () on Thursday, June 22, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 1:05pm EDT in Philadelphia.
The – are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at ().
The Braves vs Phillies Over/Under is total runs for the game.
This season, the Braves are 47-26 against the spread (ATS), while the Phillies are 29-44 ATS.
Braves vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Braves | O | ||
| Phillies | U |
Braves vs Phillies Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Thursday‘s MLB matchup with 57.0% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Braves and Phillies and up-to-date player injuries.
Bet now on Braves vs Phillies and all games with BetMGM
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Braves Player Prop Bets Today:
- Michael Harris II has hit the Runs Under in 31 of his last 39 games (+17.70 Units / 26% ROI)
- Michael Harris II has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 34 of his last 49 games (+15.95 Units / 26% ROI)
- Ronald Acuna Jr. has hit the RBIs Over in 13 of his last 19 away games (+13.55 Units / 71% ROI)
- Orlando Arcia has hit the Singles Over in 20 of his last 27 games (+13.25 Units / 44% ROI)
- Michael Harris II has hit the Total Bases Under in 26 of his last 37 games (+12.70 Units / 21% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Nick Castellanos has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 27 games (+13.60 Units / 30% ROI)
- J.T. Realmuto has hit the Hits Under in 8 of his last 11 games at home (+10.50 Units / 95% ROI)
- Kody Clemens has hit the Runs Under in his last 10 games (+10.00 Units / 46% ROI)
- Josh Harrison has hit the Runs Under in his last 10 games (+10.00 Units / 41% ROI)
- Trea Turner has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 25 games at home (+9.40 Units / 28% ROI)
Phillies vs Braves Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Eddie Rosario | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Bryce Harper | 0.5 +325 | 0.5 -550 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Matt Olson | 0.5 +270 | 0.5 -450 |
| Michael Harris | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
Phillies vs Braves Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Eddie Rosario | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +130 |
| Bryce Harper | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +195 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Matt Olson | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +140 |
| Michael Harris | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +130 |
Phillies vs Braves RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Eddie Rosario | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
| Bryce Harper | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| Matt Olson | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Michael Harris | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
Phillies vs Braves Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Elder | 4.5 -135 | 4.5 +100 |
| Aaron Nola | 6.5 -130 | 6.5 +100 |
Braves Best Bets Today:
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in 38 of their last 64 games (+12.80 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 45 of their last 73 games (+12.00 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 16 games (+8.85 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 12 of their last 16 games (+7.90 Units / 40% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Team Total Over in 11 of their last 15 games (+6.50 Units / 37% ROI)
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Under in 31 of their last 56 games (+11.25 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 13 of their last 16 games (+9.90 Units / 42% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 20 of their last 30 games at home (+9.30 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 11 of their last 15 games (+8.50 Units / 37% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 18 of their last 27 games at home (+7.80 Units / 24% ROI)
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 35-38 against the Run Line (-3.3 Units / -3.82% ROI).
- 47-26 when betting on the Moneyline for +6.65 Units / 5.4% ROI
- 41-29 when betting on the total runs Over for +9.1 Units / 11.34% ROI
- 29-41 when betting on the total runs Under for -16.35 Units / -20.34% ROI
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 29-44 against the Run Line (-22.95 Units / -24.48% ROI).
- 38-35 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.85 Units / -5.78% ROI
- 28-38 when betting on the total runs Over for -13.55 Units / -16.91% ROI
- 38-28 when betting on the total runs Under for +7.45 Units / 9.25% ROI
Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 67% (85/127) against Bryce Elder this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — 100th Percentile.
Bryce Elder has located his fastballs down 47% of the time (306/645) this season — 2nd highest among in MLB; League Avg: 29% — 96th Percentile.
Opposing hitters have a groundball rate of 61% (32/52) against Bryce Elder when he’s behind in the count this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 39% — 98th Percentile.
Bryce Elder has an average fastball velocity of just 89.8 MPH this season — 4th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 93.8 — fifth Percentile.
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Aaron Nola has allowed at least one HR in each of his last 11 games dating back to April 21st — this is the longest active streak among active MLB players.
Aaron Nola has allowed a slugging percentage of 1.021 (48 Total Bases / 47 ABs) when behind in the count this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .604 — third Percentile.
Aaron Nola has walked 8 of 220 right-handed batters (4%) this season — 6th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 92nd Percentile.
Aaron Nola has a strike rate of 69% (581/837) against right-handed batters this season — 5th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — 93rd Percentile.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Braves are 14-9 (.609) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .269.
The Braves are 4-1 (.800) after a win as underdogs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .453.
The Braves are 37-23 (.617) when allowing 2 or more home runs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .301.
The Braves are 87-17 (.837) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .699.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Phillies are just 2-23 (.080) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .215.
The Phillies are 20-87 (.187) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .126.
The Phillies are just 3-20 (.130) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .269.
The Phillies are just 9-15 (.375) when tied entering the 8th inning since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
Braves hitters are slugging .542 against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .418.
Braves hitters have an OPS of .899 (723 PA’s) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .741.
Braves hitters are slugging .454 since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .399.
The Braves are batting .276 against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
Phillies hitters have chased 35% of pitches out of the zone against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Phillies hitters have drawn 51 walks in 888 PA’s (6%) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Phillies hitters are slugging .507 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .445.
Phillies hitter’ K:BB ratio is 4.4 against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 2.7.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 29% against Braves pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Braves pitchers have won 60% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Braves pitchers have won 55% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
The Braves pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 30% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 31% in close and late situations this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Phillies pitchers have walked 140 of 2,073 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 48% with two-strikes over the last 14 days (12 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 27% over the last 14 days (12 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Phillies vs. Braves Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Seranthony DomÃnguez (Phillies): Oblique, D15
- Rhys Hoskins (Phillies): ACL, D60
- Noah Song (Phillies): Back, D60
- Jesse Chavez (Braves): Shin, D15
- Dylan Lee (Braves): Shoulder, D15
- Max Fried (Braves): Forearm, D60
- Tyler Matzek (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Ehire Adrianza (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Kyle Wright (Braves): Shoulder, D60
- Kolby Allard (Braves): Oblique, D60
- Sean Murphy (Braves): Hamstring, Day-to-Day
- Huascar Ynoa (Braves): Elbow, D60
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