Braves vs Phillies Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jun 29

min read
(AP Photo)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jun 29, 2022, 3:35 PM
  • The Braves (43-32) are -140 favorites vs the Phillies (39-36)
  • Braves starting pitcher: Kyle Wright (8-4), 3.17 ERA
  • Phillies starting pitcher: Ranger Suárez (6-4), 4.23 ERA
  • Watch the game on MLB Network

The Atlanta Braves (-140) visit Citizens Bank Park to take on the Philadelphia Phillies (+115) on Wednesday, June 29, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05pm EDT in Philadelphia.

The Braves are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+115).

The Braves vs Phillies Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Braves are 43-32 against the spread (ATS), while the Phillies are 37-38 ATS.

Braves vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Braves-1.5 +115O 9 -115-140
Phillies +1.5 -140U 9 -105+115

Braves vs Phillies Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Wednesday‘s matchup with 67.4% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Braves and Phillies and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Phillies vs Braves and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Braves Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Dansby Swanson has hit the Hits Over in 43 of his last 61 games (+27.85 Units / 30% ROI)
  • Dansby Swanson has hit the Singles Over in 39 of his last 63 games (+19.00 Units / 28% ROI)
  • Dansby Swanson has hit the Total Bases Over in 41 of his last 61 games (+18.50 Units / 24% ROI)
  • Matt Olson has hit the Runs Under in 41 of his last 60 games (+14.80 Units / 18% ROI)
  • Matt Olson has hit the Singles Under in 44 of his last 63 games (+13.70 Units / 13% ROI)

Best Phillies Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Kyle Schwarber has hit the RBIs Over in 5 of his last 6 games (+8.60 Units / 143% ROI)
  • Rhys Hoskins has hit the RBIs Under in his last 8 games (+8.00 Units / 46% ROI)
  • Rhys Hoskins has hit the Singles Over in 6 of his last 7 games at home (+6.85 Units / 98% ROI)
  • Nick Castellanos has hit the Total Bases Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+6.30 Units / 40% ROI)
  • Nick Castellanos has hit the Hits Under in 6 of his last 9 games (+6.00 Units / 50% ROI)

Phillies vs Braves Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alec Bohm 0.5 +725 0.5 -2500
Bryson Stott 0.5 +650 0.5 -2000
Kyle Schwarber 0.5 +250 0.5 -375
Nick Castellanos 0.5 +425 0.5 -800
Rhys Hoskins 0.5 +333 0.5 -600

Phillies vs Braves Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alec Bohm 0.5 -200 0.5 +145
Bryson Stott 0.5 -150 0.5 +105
Kyle Schwarber 0.5 -200 0.5 +135
Nick Castellanos 0.5 -250 0.5 +175
Rhys Hoskins 0.5 -225 0.5 +155

Phillies vs Braves RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alec Bohm 0.5 +210 0.5 -350
Bryson Stott 0.5 +230 0.5 -350
Kyle Schwarber 0.5 +150 0.5 -225
Nick Castellanos 0.5 +170 0.5 -250
Rhys Hoskins 0.5 +165 0.5 -250

Phillies vs Braves Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Ranger Suarez 4.5 +100 4.5 -140
Kyle Wright 5.5 +120 5.5 -165
  • The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 34 of their last 49 games (+16.82 Units / 28% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 20 of their last 25 games (+12.55 Units / 27% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 15 of their last 21 away games (+8.85 Units / 31% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 27 of their last 42 games (+6.15 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in 33 of their last 60 games (+5.65 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Over in 36 of their last 59 games (+10.85 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 41 of their last 70 games (+9.70 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 18 of their last 25 games (+9.40 Units / 27% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 14 of their last 24 games (+5.35 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 6 of their last 11 games at home (+0.85 Units / 7% ROI)

Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 38-37 against the Run Line (-2.1 Units / -2.17% ROI).

  • 43-32 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.15 Units / -0.13% ROI
  • 39-33 when betting on the total runs Over for +3.15 Units / 3.82% ROI
  • 33-39 when betting on the total runs Under for -10.05 Units / -12.14% ROI

Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 37-38 against the Run Line (-2.05 Units / -2.22% ROI).

  • 39-36 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.7 Units / -3.67% ROI
  • 42-31 when betting on the total runs Over for +7.9 Units / 9.55% ROI
  • 31-42 when betting on the total runs Under for -15.1 Units / -18.33% ROI

Opponents are hitting .420 (21-for-50) against Kyle Wright — highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .242 — first Percentile.

Right-handed batters are hitting .464 (13-for-28) against Kyle Wright — highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .246 — first Percentile.

Kyle Wright has allowed an OBP of .500 (30 PA’s) against right-handed batters — highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .303 — first Percentile.

Kyle Wright has allowed an OBP of .625 (16 PA’s) versus the bottom of the order — 2nd highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .275 — second Percentile.

Ranger Suárez: Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Opponents have a groundball rate of 61% (51/83) against Ranger Suarez in two-strike counts this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 46% — 98th Percentile.

Ranger Suarez has walked 27 of 246 right-handed batters (11%) this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — second Percentile.

Ranger Suarez has a strike rate of just 60% (581/965) against right-handed batters this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 66% — first Percentile.

Ranger Suarez has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 85.1 MPH on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season (80 balls in play) — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 116 total IP; League Avg: 89.9

Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies

The Braves are 5-1 (.833) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Braves are 25-7 (.781) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .717.

The Braves are 24-17 (.585) at home this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .513.

The Braves are 5-2 (.714) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Braves

The Phillies are 8-27 (.229) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .077.

The Phillies are just 0-7 (.000) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Phillies are 8-27 (.229) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .103.

The Phillies are just 121-13 (.903) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .916.

Braves hitters have put just 34% of their swings in play this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.

Braves hitters are slugging .746 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .565.

Braves hitters are slugging .527 on pitches 95 mph or greater this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .391.

Braves hitters have missed on 29% of swings this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Phillies hitters have just 26 strikeouts in 173 PA’s (15%) against LHP over the last 14 days (10 games) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

The Phillies are 8-27 (.229) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .077.

Phillies hitters are slugging .632 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .565.

The Phillies are batting .361 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .337.

Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 53% with two-strikes over the last 14 days (12 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 31% in close and late situations this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 30% in late innings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 24%.

Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Phillies pitchers this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Phillies pitchers since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Phillies pitchers since the start of 2020 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.

The Phillies have won 40% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Phillies vs. Braves Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Kent Emanuel (Phillies): Elbow, D60
  • Zachary Eflin (Phillies): Knee, D15
  • James McArthur (Phillies): Elbow, D60
  • Ryan Sherriff (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
  • Connor Brogdon (Phillies): COVID, D10
  • Bryce Harper (Phillies): Thumb, D10
  • Johan Camargo (Phillies): Knee, D10
  • Jean Segura (Phillies): Finger, D60
  • Samuel Coonrod (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
  • Nicholas Maton (Phillies): Shoulder, D10
  • Joseph Romero (Phillies): Elbow, D60
  • Damon Jones (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
  • Ronald Acuña Jr. (Braves): Foot, Day-to-Day
  • Tyler Matzek (Braves): Shoulder, D15
  • Ozhanio Albies (Braves): Foot, D60
  • Kirby Yates (Braves): Elbow, D60
  • Michael Soroka (Braves): Achilles, D60
  • Eddie Rosario (Braves): Eye, D60
  • Kenley Jansen (Braves): Heart, D15
  • Manuel Piña (Braves): Wrist, D60
  • Luke Jackson (Braves): Elbow, D60
  • Randy Jackson (Braves): Lat, D60

Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Phillies vs Braves and all MLB games with BetMGM


Bet on MLB Odds at BetMGM

At BetMGM, you can bet online with updated MLB betting odds. And with live sports betting, the best online sports betting and mobile sports betting (with the BetMGM Sportsbook app) experiences are at BetMGM.

About the Author

BetMGM Betting

Read More @BETMGM

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.