Braves vs Phillies Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jun 30

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jun 30, 2022, 3:30 PM
  • The Phillies (39-37) are -150 favorites vs the Braves (44-32)
  • Braves starting pitcher: Ian Anderson (6-4), 4.60 ERA
  • Phillies starting pitcher: Aaron Nola (4-5), 2.97 ERA
  • Watch the game on MLB Network

The Atlanta Braves (+125) visit Citizens Bank Park to take on the Philadelphia Phillies (-150) on Thursday, June 30, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 6:05pm EDT in Philadelphia.

The Phillies are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+135).

The Braves vs Phillies Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Braves are 44-32 against the spread (ATS), while the Phillies are 37-39 ATS.

Braves vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Braves+1.5 -160O 8.5 -110+125
Phillies -1.5 +135U 8.5 -110-150

Braves vs Phillies Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Thursday‘s matchup with 52.0% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Braves and Phillies and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Phillies vs Braves and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Braves Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Dansby Swanson has hit the Hits Over in 43 of his last 62 games (+26.85 Units / 29% ROI)
  • Dansby Swanson has hit the Singles Over in 39 of his last 64 games (+17.75 Units / 25% ROI)
  • Dansby Swanson has hit the Total Bases Over in 41 of his last 62 games (+17.45 Units / 22% ROI)
  • Matt Olson has hit the Singles Under in 45 of his last 64 games (+14.70 Units / 14% ROI)
  • Michael Harris II has hit the Hits Over in 22 of his last 27 games (+13.50 Units / 28% ROI)

Best Phillies Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Nick Castellanos has hit the Hits Under in 7 of his last 10 games (+7.80 Units / 60% ROI)
  • Kyle Schwarber has hit the RBIs Over in 5 of his last 7 games (+7.60 Units / 109% ROI)
  • Nick Castellanos has hit the Total Bases Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+7.30 Units / 42% ROI)
  • Rhys Hoskins has hit the Total Bases Over in 10 of his last 14 games at home (+7.25 Units / 48% ROI)
  • Nick Castellanos has hit the Runs Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+6.85 Units / 38% ROI)

Phillies vs Braves Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alec Bohm 0.5 +575 0.5 -1400
Bryson Stott 0.5 +625 0.5 -2000
Hall 0.5 +400 0.5 -750
Didi Gregorius 0.5 +600 0.5 -1600
J.T. Realmuto 0.5 +425 0.5 -800

Phillies vs Braves Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alec Bohm 0.5 -250 0.5 +165
Bryson Stott 0.5 -145 0.5 +100
Didi Gregorius 0.5 -190 0.5 +130
J.T. Realmuto 0.5 -250 0.5 +160
Kyle Schwarber 0.5 -190 0.5 +130

Phillies vs Braves RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alec Bohm 0.5 +175 0.5 -250
Bryson Stott 0.5 +225 0.5 -350
Hall 0.5 +180 0.5 -275
Didi Gregorius 0.5 +185 0.5 -275
J.T. Realmuto 0.5 +165 0.5 -250

Phillies vs Braves Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Aaron Nola 7.5 +100 7.5 -140
Ian Anderson 4.5 -155 4.5 +110
  • The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 35 of their last 50 games (+17.87 Units / 29% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 21 of their last 26 games (+13.55 Units / 28% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 16 of their last 22 away games (+10.05 Units / 34% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 28 of their last 43 games (+7.15 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 34 of their last 64 games (+5.15 Units / 7% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Over in 36 of their last 60 games (+9.80 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 41 of their last 71 games (+8.70 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 18 of their last 26 games (+8.40 Units / 23% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 14 of their last 25 games (+3.95 Units / 13% ROI)

Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 39-37 against the Run Line (-0.9 Units / -0.92% ROI).

  • 44-32 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.85 Units / 0.73% ROI
  • 39-34 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.1 Units / 2.52% ROI
  • 34-39 when betting on the total runs Under for -9.05 Units / -10.78% ROI

Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 37-39 against the Run Line (-3.45 Units / -3.68% ROI).

  • 39-37 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.7 Units / -4.62% ROI
  • 42-32 when betting on the total runs Over for +6.85 Units / 8.17% ROI
  • 32-42 when betting on the total runs Under for -14.1 Units / -16.88% ROI

Ian Anderson has allowed an OBP of .472 (72 PA’s) when going through the lineup the third time in a game this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .309 — first Percentile.

Ian Anderson has walked 36 of 322 batters (11%) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — first Percentile.

Ian Anderson has allowed a slugging percentage of .746 (47 Total Bases / 63 ABs) when going through the lineup the third time in a game this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .424 — first Percentile.

Ian Anderson has walked 20 of 138 left-handed batters (14%) this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 8% — third Percentile.

Aaron Nola: Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Aaron Nola has walked 4 of 195 right-handed batters (2%) this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — 100th Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .098 (4-for-41) against Aaron Nola on low fastballs this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .273 — 100th Percentile.

Aaron Nola has walked 13 of 373 batters (4%) this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 98th Percentile.

Aaron Nola has a strikeout rate of 30% (15 SO in 50 PAs) in PAs ending on inside fastballs this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 15% — 100th Percentile.

Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies

The Braves are 5-1 (.833) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Braves are 25-7 (.781) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — tied for 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .718.

The Braves are just 1-27 (.036) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .077.

The Braves are 16-3 (.842) when scoring in the first inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .678.

Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Braves

The Phillies are just 0-7 (.000) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Phillies are 8-28 (.222) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .077.

The Phillies are 8-28 (.222) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .104.

The Phillies are 17-117 (.127) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .084.

Braves hitters are slugging .736 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .564.

Braves hitters have 217 extra-base hits out of 502 total hits (43%) against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 35%.

Braves hitters have 259 extra-base hits out of 609 total hits (42%) against LHP since the start of 2020 — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 36%.

Braves hitters are slugging .524 on pitches 95 mph or greater this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .391.

Phillies hitters have an OPS of .742 (1,483 PA’s) on the road this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .697.

The Phillies are just 0-7 (.000) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

Phillies hitters have drawn 91 walks in 915 PA’s (10%) against LHP this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

Phillies hitters are slugging .625 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .564.

Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 31% in close and late situations this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 53% with two-strikes over the last 14 days (12 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Braves pitchers this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Phillies pitchers since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Phillies pitchers since the start of 2020 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Phillies pitchers this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of .274 against Phillies pitchers with the shift this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .215.

Phillies vs. Braves Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Kent Emanuel (Phillies): Elbow, D60
  • Zachary Eflin (Phillies): Knee, D15
  • James McArthur (Phillies): Elbow, D60
  • Ryan Sherriff (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
  • Connor Brogdon (Phillies): COVID, D10
  • Bryce Harper (Phillies): Thumb, D10
  • Johan Camargo (Phillies): Knee, D10
  • Jean Segura (Phillies): Finger, D60
  • Samuel Coonrod (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
  • Nicholas Maton (Phillies): Shoulder, D10
  • Joseph Romero (Phillies): Elbow, D60
  • Damon Jones (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
  • Ronald Acuña Jr. (Braves): Foot, Day-to-Day
  • Tyler Matzek (Braves): Shoulder, D15
  • Ozhanio Albies (Braves): Foot, D60
  • Kirby Yates (Braves): Elbow, D60
  • Michael Soroka (Braves): Achilles, D60
  • Eddie Rosario (Braves): Eye, D60
  • Kenley Jansen (Braves): Heart, D15
  • Manuel Piña (Braves): Wrist, D60
  • Luke Jackson (Braves): Elbow, D60
  • Randy Jackson (Braves): Lat, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.