- The Phillies (39-37) are -150 favorites vs the Braves (44-32)
- Braves starting pitcher: Ian Anderson (6-4), 4.60 ERA
- Phillies starting pitcher: Aaron Nola (4-5), 2.97 ERA
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The Atlanta Braves (+125) visit Citizens Bank Park to take on the Philadelphia Phillies (-150) on Thursday, June 30, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 6:05pm EDT in Philadelphia.
The Phillies are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+135).
The Braves vs Phillies Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Braves are 44-32 against the spread (ATS), while the Phillies are 37-39 ATS.
Braves vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Braves | +1.5 -160 | O 8.5 -110 | +125 |
| Phillies | -1.5 +135 | U 8.5 -110 | -150 |
Braves vs Phillies Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Thursday‘s matchup with 52.0% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Braves and Phillies and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Braves Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Dansby Swanson has hit the Hits Over in 43 of his last 62 games (+26.85 Units / 29% ROI)
- Dansby Swanson has hit the Singles Over in 39 of his last 64 games (+17.75 Units / 25% ROI)
- Dansby Swanson has hit the Total Bases Over in 41 of his last 62 games (+17.45 Units / 22% ROI)
- Matt Olson has hit the Singles Under in 45 of his last 64 games (+14.70 Units / 14% ROI)
- Michael Harris II has hit the Hits Over in 22 of his last 27 games (+13.50 Units / 28% ROI)
Best Phillies Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Nick Castellanos has hit the Hits Under in 7 of his last 10 games (+7.80 Units / 60% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the RBIs Over in 5 of his last 7 games (+7.60 Units / 109% ROI)
- Nick Castellanos has hit the Total Bases Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+7.30 Units / 42% ROI)
- Rhys Hoskins has hit the Total Bases Over in 10 of his last 14 games at home (+7.25 Units / 48% ROI)
- Nick Castellanos has hit the Runs Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+6.85 Units / 38% ROI)
Phillies vs Braves Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alec Bohm | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Bryson Stott | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Hall | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -750 |
| Didi Gregorius | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
Phillies vs Braves Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alec Bohm | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +165 |
| Bryson Stott | 0.5 -145 | 0.5 +100 |
| Didi Gregorius | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +130 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +160 |
| Kyle Schwarber | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +130 |
Phillies vs Braves RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alec Bohm | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Bryson Stott | 0.5 +225 | 0.5 -350 |
| Hall | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -275 |
| Didi Gregorius | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -275 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -250 |
Phillies vs Braves Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | 7.5 +100 | 7.5 -140 |
| Ian Anderson | 4.5 -155 | 4.5 +110 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Braves Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 35 of their last 50 games (+17.87 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 21 of their last 26 games (+13.55 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 16 of their last 22 away games (+10.05 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 28 of their last 43 games (+7.15 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 34 of their last 64 games (+5.15 Units / 7% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Phillies: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Over in 36 of their last 60 games (+9.80 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 41 of their last 71 games (+8.70 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 18 of their last 26 games (+8.40 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 14 of their last 25 games (+3.95 Units / 13% ROI)
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 39-37 against the Run Line (-0.9 Units / -0.92% ROI).
- 44-32 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.85 Units / 0.73% ROI
- 39-34 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.1 Units / 2.52% ROI
- 34-39 when betting on the total runs Under for -9.05 Units / -10.78% ROI
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 37-39 against the Run Line (-3.45 Units / -3.68% ROI).
- 39-37 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.7 Units / -4.62% ROI
- 42-32 when betting on the total runs Over for +6.85 Units / 8.17% ROI
- 32-42 when betting on the total runs Under for -14.1 Units / -16.88% ROI
Ian Anderson: Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Ian Anderson has allowed an OBP of .472 (72 PA’s) when going through the lineup the third time in a game this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .309 — first Percentile.
Ian Anderson has walked 36 of 322 batters (11%) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — first Percentile.
Ian Anderson has allowed a slugging percentage of .746 (47 Total Bases / 63 ABs) when going through the lineup the third time in a game this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .424 — first Percentile.
Ian Anderson has walked 20 of 138 left-handed batters (14%) this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 8% — third Percentile.
Aaron Nola: Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Aaron Nola has walked 4 of 195 right-handed batters (2%) this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .098 (4-for-41) against Aaron Nola on low fastballs this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .273 — 100th Percentile.
Aaron Nola has walked 13 of 373 batters (4%) this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 98th Percentile.
Aaron Nola has a strikeout rate of 30% (15 SO in 50 PAs) in PAs ending on inside fastballs this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 15% — 100th Percentile.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Braves are 5-1 (.833) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Braves are 25-7 (.781) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — tied for 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .718.
The Braves are just 1-27 (.036) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .077.
The Braves are 16-3 (.842) when scoring in the first inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .678.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Phillies are just 0-7 (.000) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Phillies are 8-28 (.222) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .077.
The Phillies are 8-28 (.222) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .104.
The Phillies are 17-117 (.127) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .084.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
Braves hitters are slugging .736 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .564.
Braves hitters have 217 extra-base hits out of 502 total hits (43%) against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
Braves hitters have 259 extra-base hits out of 609 total hits (42%) against LHP since the start of 2020 — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Braves hitters are slugging .524 on pitches 95 mph or greater this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .391.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
Phillies hitters have an OPS of .742 (1,483 PA’s) on the road this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .697.
The Phillies are just 0-7 (.000) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Phillies hitters have drawn 91 walks in 915 PA’s (10%) against LHP this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Phillies hitters are slugging .625 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .564.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 31% in close and late situations this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 53% with two-strikes over the last 14 days (12 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Braves pitchers this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Phillies pitchers since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Phillies pitchers since the start of 2020 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Phillies pitchers this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .274 against Phillies pitchers with the shift this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .215.
Phillies vs. Braves Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Kent Emanuel (Phillies): Elbow, D60
- Zachary Eflin (Phillies): Knee, D15
- James McArthur (Phillies): Elbow, D60
- Ryan Sherriff (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
- Connor Brogdon (Phillies): COVID, D10
- Bryce Harper (Phillies): Thumb, D10
- Johan Camargo (Phillies): Knee, D10
- Jean Segura (Phillies): Finger, D60
- Samuel Coonrod (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
- Nicholas Maton (Phillies): Shoulder, D10
- Joseph Romero (Phillies): Elbow, D60
- Damon Jones (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
- Ronald Acuña Jr. (Braves): Foot, Day-to-Day
- Tyler Matzek (Braves): Shoulder, D15
- Ozhanio Albies (Braves): Foot, D60
- Kirby Yates (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Michael Soroka (Braves): Achilles, D60
- Eddie Rosario (Braves): Eye, D60
- Kenley Jansen (Braves): Heart, D15
- Manuel Piña (Braves): Wrist, D60
- Luke Jackson (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Randy Jackson (Braves): Lat, D60
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