Braves vs Phillies Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Oct 14, NLDS

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Oct 14, 2022, 3:30 PM
  • The Braves are -115 favorites vs the Phillies
  • Braves starting pitcher: , ERA
  • Phillies starting pitcher: Aaron Nola, 0.00 ERA
  • Watch the game on Fox Sports 1

The Atlanta Braves (-115) visit Citizens Bank Park to take on the Philadelphia Phillies (-105) on Friday, October 14, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 4:37pm EDT in Philadelphia for this postseason game.

The Braves are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+155).

The Braves vs Phillies Over/Under is 6.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Braves are 102-62 against the spread (ATS), while the Phillies are 85-81 ATS.

Braves vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Braves-1.5 +155O 6.5 +100-115
Phillies +1.5 -190U 6.5 -120-105

Braves vs Phillies Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Friday‘s matchup with 54.2% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Braves and Phillies and up-to-date player injuries.


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Best Braves Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Austin Riley has hit the Hits Under in 19 of his last 25 away games (+19.65 Units / 52% ROI)
  • Michael Harris II has hit the Hits Over in 79 of his last 113 games (+18.30 Units / 9% ROI)
  • Austin Riley has hit the Total Bases Under in 22 of his last 26 away games (+17.00 Units / 46% ROI)
  • Austin Riley has hit the RBIs Under in 28 of his last 35 away games (+16.80 Units / 26% ROI)
  • Michael Harris II has hit the Runs Over in 19 of his last 29 away games (+16.15 Units / 55% ROI)

Best Phillies Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Kyle Schwarber has hit the Runs Under in 49 of his last 82 games (+15.35 Units / 16% ROI)
  • Nick Castellanos has hit the RBIs Under in 39 of his last 52 games at home (+15.30 Units / 15% ROI)
  • Kyle Schwarber has hit the Hits Under in 39 of his last 77 games (+13.15 Units / 16% ROI)
  • Rhys Hoskins has hit the Singles Under in 23 of his last 29 games (+13.10 Units / 26% ROI)
  • Bryce Harper has hit the Hits Under in 14 of his last 18 games at home (+12.90 Units / 42% ROI)

Phillies vs Braves Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Austin Riley 0.5 +475 0.5 -1000
Dansby Swanson 0.5 +525 0.5 -1200
Eddie Rosario 0.5 +600 0.5 -1600
Marcell Ozuna 0.5 +400 0.5 -800
Matt Olson 0.5 +275 0.5 -450

Phillies vs Braves Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Austin Riley 0.5 -175 0.5 +120
Dansby Swanson 0.5 -210 0.5 +145
Eddie Rosario 0.5 -120 0.5 -115
Marcell Ozuna 0.5 -145 0.5 +100
Matt Olson 0.5 -165 0.5 +115

Phillies vs Braves RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Austin Riley 0.5 +220 0.5 -350
Dansby Swanson 0.5 +270 0.5 -450
Eddie Rosario 0.5 +290 0.5 -500
Marcell Ozuna 0.5 +210 0.5 -300
Matt Olson 0.5 +155 0.5 -225

Phillies vs Braves Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Aaron Nola 6.5 -160 6.5 +110
  • The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 86 of their last 138 games (+25.67 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 79 of their last 114 games (+24.55 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the Team Total Over in 37 of their last 59 games (+11.45 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in 32 of their last 55 away games (+10.55 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 33 of their last 55 away games (+10.10 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 65 of their last 108 games (+18.33 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 35 of their last 54 games at home (+15.15 Units / 25% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 69 of their last 116 games (+12.70 Units / 7% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 62 of their last 115 games (+7.30 Units / 5% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 20 of their last 31 games at home (+6.30 Units / 15% ROI)

Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 84-80 against the Run Line (-5 Units / -2.41% ROI).

  • 102-62 when betting on the Moneyline for +11.85 Units / 4.25% ROI
  • 81-75 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.75 Units / -0.96% ROI
  • 75-81 when betting on the total runs Under for -13.95 Units / -7.77% ROI

Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 85-81 against the Run Line (-0.1 Units / -0.05% ROI).

  • 90-76 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.4 Units / -0.17% ROI
  • 83-77 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.5 Units / -0.82% ROI
  • 77-83 when betting on the total runs Under for -13.15 Units / -7.23% ROI

Bryce Elder has allowed an OPS of .771 (31 PA’s) with two-strikes — 5th highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .458 — sixth Percentile.

Opponents are hitting .276 (8-for-29) against Bryce Elder with two-strikes — tied for 3rd highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .153 — fifth Percentile.

Hitters have swung at 51% of Bryce Elder’s pitches (36/70) with two-strikes — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 61% — sixth Percentile.

Bryce Elder has induced opposing hitters to ground into 2 double plays in 7 opportunities (29%) — tied for 3rd best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 11% — 97th Percentile.

Aaron Nola: Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Aaron Nola has a first-pitch strike rate of 70% (582/836) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 63% — 100th Percentile.

Aaron Nola has walked 7 of 299 batters (2%) versus the 2-3-4 hitters this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 100th Percentile.

Aaron Nola has a strike rate of 70% (1,132/1,605) against right-handed batters this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 66% — 95th Percentile.

Aaron Nola has 5 three-pitch strikeouts this month (2 games) — tied for most among pitchers in MLB — 100th Percentile.

Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies

The Braves are 11-3 (.786) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Braves are 46-35 (.568) on the road this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .468.

The Braves are 59-12 (.831) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .707.

The Braves are 36-5 (.878) when scoring in the first inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .664.

Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Braves

The Phillies are 14-57 (.197) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .119.

The Phillies are 72-5 (.935) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .915.

The Phillies are just 5-12 (.294) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Phillies are 11-58 (.159) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .085.

Braves hitters are slugging .443 against RHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .393.

Braves hitters are slugging .486 on pitches 95 mph or greater this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .383.

Braves hitters are slugging .443 this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .395.

Braves hitters are slugging .652 on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: .575.

Phillies hitters are slugging .536 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .445.

Phillies hitters have 19 extra-base hits out of 31 total hits (61%) against RHP this month (7 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 32%.

The Phillies are batting .266 against LHP this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .245.

The Phillies are batting .260 at home this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .246.

Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

The Braves pitchers have allowed the 30th hardest ball in play hit (122.4 MPH) this season (; League Avg: 117.3).

Braves pitchers have allowed innings of 3+ runs in 4% of innings played since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 6%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Phillies pitchers since the start of last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Phillies pitchers have walked 186 of 2,865 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

The Phillies pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 87.7 MPH since the start of last season (7,898 balls in play) — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 88.7

Opponents have a groundball batting average of .256 against Phillies pitchers with the shift this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: .221.

Phillies vs. Braves Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Hans Crouse (Phillies): Biceps, D60
  • Mark Appel (Phillies): Elbow, D60
  • James McArthur (Phillies): Elbow, D60
  • Kent Emanuel (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
  • Símon Muzziotti (Phillies): Knee, D60
  • Damon Jones (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
  • Corey Knebel (Phillies): Lat, D60
  • Ozhanio Albies (Braves): Finger, D10
  • Darren O’Day (Braves): Calf, D60
  • Huascar Ynoa (Braves): Undisclosed, D60
  • Manuel Piña (Braves): Wrist, D60
  • Chadwick Tromp (Braves): Quad, D10
  • Luke Jackson (Braves): Elbow, D60
  • Adam Duvall (Braves): Wrist, D60
  • Kirby Yates (Braves): Elbow, D15

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.