Braves vs Phillies Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Oct 15, NLDS

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Oct 15, 2022, 3:30 PM
  • The Braves are -130 favorites vs the Phillies
  • Braves starting pitcher: Charles Morton, ERA
  • Phillies starting pitcher: Noah Syndergaard, 0.00 ERA
  • Watch the game on Fox Sports 1

The Atlanta Braves (-130) visit Citizens Bank Park to take on the Philadelphia Phillies (+110) on Saturday, October 15, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 2:07pm EDT in Philadelphia for this postseason game.

The Braves are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+120).

The Braves vs Phillies Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Braves are 102-63 against the spread (ATS), while the Phillies are 86-81 ATS.

Braves vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Braves-1.5 +120O 9 -110-130
Phillies +1.5 -145U 9 -110+110

Braves vs Phillies Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Saturday‘s matchup with 58.1% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Braves and Phillies and up-to-date player injuries.


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Best Braves Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Austin Riley has hit the Hits Under in 20 of his last 26 away games (+20.85 Units / 54% ROI)
  • Michael Harris II has hit the Hits Over in 80 of his last 114 games (+19.30 Units / 9% ROI)
  • Austin Riley has hit the Total Bases Under in 23 of his last 27 away games (+18.20 Units / 48% ROI)
  • Michael Harris II has hit the Runs Over in 19 of his last 30 away games (+15.15 Units / 50% ROI)
  • Austin Riley has hit the Runs Under in 22 of his last 28 away games (+14.85 Units / 36% ROI)

Best Phillies Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Rhys Hoskins has hit the Singles Under in 24 of his last 30 games (+14.10 Units / 27% ROI)
  • Kyle Schwarber has hit the Runs Under in 49 of his last 83 games (+13.80 Units / 14% ROI)
  • Rhys Hoskins has hit the Total Bases Over in 35 of his last 57 games at home (+13.50 Units / 21% ROI)
  • Kyle Schwarber has hit the Hits Under in 39 of his last 78 games (+12.15 Units / 15% ROI)
  • Bryce Harper has hit the Hits Under in 14 of his last 19 games at home (+11.90 Units / 37% ROI)

Phillies vs Braves Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alec Bohm 0.5 +625 0.5 -1600
Brandon Marsh 0.5 +700 0.5 -2500
Bryce Harper 0.5 +300 0.5 -500
Bryson Stott 0.5 +675 0.5 -2000
J.T. Realmuto 0.5 +375 0.5 -700

Phillies vs Braves Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Brandon Marsh 0.5 -120 0.5 -120
Bryce Harper 0.5 -250 0.5 +175
Bryson Stott 0.5 -160 0.5 +115
J.T. Realmuto 0.5 -250 0.5 +170
Jean Segura 0.5 -190 0.5 +130

Phillies vs Braves RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alec Bohm 0.5 +190 0.5 -275
Brandon Marsh 0.5 +270 0.5 -450
Bryce Harper 0.5 +135 0.5 -190
Bryson Stott 0.5 +230 0.5 -350
J.T. Realmuto 0.5 +185 0.5 -275

Phillies vs Braves Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Charlie Morton 5.5 -105 5.5 -135
Noah Syndergaard 2.5 +150 2.5 -225
Noah Syndergaard 1.5 -165 1.5 +120
  • The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 86 of their last 139 games (+24.04 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 79 of their last 115 games (+23.35 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in 33 of their last 56 away games (+11.55 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 34 of their last 56 away games (+11.15 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the Team Total Over in 37 of their last 60 games (+10.30 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 65 of their last 109 games (+17.03 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 36 of their last 55 games at home (+16.20 Units / 26% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 70 of their last 117 games (+13.70 Units / 8% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 63 of their last 116 games (+8.30 Units / 6% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 21 of their last 32 games at home (+7.73 Units / 18% ROI)

Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 84-81 against the Run Line (-6 Units / -2.87% ROI).

  • 102-63 when betting on the Moneyline for +10.65 Units / 3.81% ROI
  • 82-75 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.75 Units / -0.41% ROI
  • 75-82 when betting on the total runs Under for -14.95 Units / -8.28% ROI

Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 86-81 against the Run Line (+0.9 Units / 0.44% ROI).

  • 91-76 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.6 Units / 0.25% ROI
  • 84-77 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.5 Units / -0.27% ROI
  • 77-84 when betting on the total runs Under for -14.15 Units / -7.73% ROI

Charlie Morton has walked 63 of 728 batters (9%) this season — tied for 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — eighth Percentile.

Right-handed hitters have a swing rate of just 45% (648/1,442) against Charlie Morton this season — tied for 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 50% — sixth Percentile.

Opponents have a line drive rate of 33% (63/190) against Charlie Morton with runners in scoring position since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 0 Percentile.

Charlie Morton has thrown his curveball 44% of the time (639/1,461) vs left-handed batters this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.

Noah Syndergaard: Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Noah Syndergaard has allowed 30 stolen bases this season — most in MLB — 100th Percentile.

Noah Syndergaard has had third base stolen on him 5 times this season — most in MLB — 100th Percentile.

Noah Syndergaard has had second base stolen on him 25 times this season — most in MLB — 100th Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 75% (12/16) against Noah Syndergaard this month (1 games) — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — 98th Percentile.

Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies

The Braves are 11-3 (.786) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Braves are 36-5 (.878) when scoring in the first inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .664.

The Braves are 49-12 (.803) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .727.

The Braves are 59-12 (.831) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .707.

Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Braves

The Phillies are 72-5 (.935) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .915.

The Phillies are just 5-12 (.294) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Phillies are 14-57 (.197) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .119.

The Phillies are 73-25 (.745) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .704.

Braves hitters are slugging .442 against RHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .393.

Braves hitters are slugging .518 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .449.

Braves hitters are slugging .443 against LHP this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .399.

Braves hitters have missed on 28% of swings this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

The Phillies are batting .266 against LHP this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .245.

Phillies hitters have an OBP of .338 (1,764 PA’s) against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .315.

Phillies hitters are slugging .536 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .445.

Phillies hitters have 22 extra-base hits out of 37 total hits (59%) against RHP this month (8 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 33%.

Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

The Braves pitchers have allowed the 30th hardest ball in play hit (122.4 MPH) this season (; League Avg: 117.3).

Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Braves pitchers this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 29% in late innings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 24%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Phillies pitchers since the start of last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Phillies pitchers have walked 186 of 2,874 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Phillies pitchers this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Phillies pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.8 MPH (3,972 batted balls) this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 88.6.

Phillies vs. Braves Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Hans Crouse (Phillies): Biceps, D60
  • Mark Appel (Phillies): Elbow, D60
  • James McArthur (Phillies): Elbow, D60
  • Kent Emanuel (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
  • Símon Muzziotti (Phillies): Knee, D60
  • Damon Jones (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
  • Corey Knebel (Phillies): Lat, D60
  • Ozhanio Albies (Braves): Finger, D10
  • Darren O’Day (Braves): Calf, D60
  • Huascar Ynoa (Braves): Undisclosed, D60
  • Manuel Piña (Braves): Wrist, D60
  • Chadwick Tromp (Braves): Quad, D10
  • Luke Jackson (Braves): Elbow, D60
  • Adam Duvall (Braves): Wrist, D60
  • Kirby Yates (Braves): Elbow, D15
  • Charles Morton (Braves): Elbow, Day-to-Day

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.