- The – are favorites vs the –
- Braves starting pitcher: Charles Morton
- Phillies starting pitcher: Taijuan Walker
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The Atlanta Braves () visit Citizens Bank Park to take on the Philadelphia Phillies () on Monday, September 11, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 1:05pm EDT in Philadelphia.
The – are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at ().
The Braves vs Phillies Over/Under is total runs for the game.
This season, the Braves are 93-49 against the spread (ATS), while the Phillies are 62-80 ATS.
Braves vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Braves | O | ||
| Phillies | U |
Braves vs Phillies Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Monday‘s MLB matchup with 67.3% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Braves and Phillies and up-to-date player injuries.
Bet now on Braves vs Phillies and all games with BetMGM
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Braves Player Prop Bets Today:
- Michael Harris II has hit the Hits Over in 35 of his last 50 games (+17.05 Units / 18% ROI)
- Marcell Ozuna has hit the Hits Over in 29 of his last 42 games (+14.40 Units / 18% ROI)
- Orlando Arcia has hit the Hits Under in 16 of his last 26 games (+12.45 Units / 41% ROI)
- Matt Olson has hit the Runs Over in 30 of his last 42 games (+12.15 Units / 20% ROI)
- Nicky Lopez has hit the Total Bases Under in 15 of his last 24 games (+10.55 Units / 44% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Trea Turner has hit the RBIs Over in 13 of his last 15 games (+17.95 Units / 120% ROI)
- Trea Turner has hit the Hits Over in 21 of his last 31 games (+15.30 Units / 29% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the RBIs Over in 14 of his last 22 games (+14.40 Units / 65% ROI)
- Alec Bohm has hit the Singles Under in 21 of his last 30 games (+14.15 Units / 45% ROI)
- Trea Turner has hit the Total Bases Over in 22 of his last 30 games (+14.10 Units / 43% ROI)
Phillies vs Braves Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Eddie Rosario | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Bryce Harper | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -900 |
| Matt Olson | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -350 |
| Michael Harris | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Kyle Schwarber | 0.5 +333 | 0.5 -600 |
Phillies vs Braves Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Eddie Rosario | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Bryce Harper | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
| Matt Olson | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Michael Harris | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Kyle Schwarber | 0.5 -105 | 0.5 -120 |
Phillies vs Braves RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Eddie Rosario | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Bryce Harper | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| Matt Olson | 0.5 +110 | 0.5 -145 |
| Michael Harris | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -250 |
| Kyle Schwarber | 0.5 +225 | 0.5 -300 |
Phillies vs Braves Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Charlie Morton | 6.5 +100 | 6.5 -130 |
| Taijuan Walker | 3.5 -105 | 3.5 -120 |
Braves Best Bets Today:
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Team Total Over in 53 of their last 84 games (+16.84 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 82 of their last 142 games (+15.24 Units / 6% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 86 of their last 142 games (+15.08 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 51 of their last 85 games (+13.75 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 14 away games (+7.20 Units / 29% ROI)
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Over in 21 of their last 32 games (+6.85 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 14 of their last 23 games at home (+6.65 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 15 of their last 23 games at home (+5.94 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 15 of their last 23 games at home (+5.46 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 13 of their last 20 games at home (+5.05 Units / 15% ROI)
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 74-68 against the Run Line (+2.55 Units / 1.52% ROI).
- 93-49 when betting on the Moneyline for +8.35 Units / 3.3% ROI
- 76-62 when betting on the total runs Over for +7.6 Units / 4.88% ROI
- 62-76 when betting on the total runs Under for -21.45 Units / -13.88% ROI
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 62-80 against the Run Line (-25.5 Units / -14.53% ROI).
- 78-64 when betting on the Moneyline for -8.25 Units / -4.11% ROI
- 60-70 when betting on the total runs Over for -16.85 Units / -10.84% ROI
- 70-60 when betting on the total runs Under for +4.3 Units / 2.77% ROI
Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Charlie Morton has thrown his curveball 35% of the time (215/605) when he’s behind in the count this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 11% — 96th Percentile.
Charlie Morton has thrown his curveball 44% of the time (1,140/2,616) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 18% — 100th Percentile.
Charlie Morton has thrown his curveball 38% of the time (711/1,870) in non-two strike counts this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 17% — 100th Percentile.
Charlie Morton has thrown his curveball 35% of the time (486/1,381) on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 19% — 100th Percentile.
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of just 17% (95/542) against Taijuan Walker this season — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 27% — fifth Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 21% (218/1,055) against Taijuan Walker this season — 5th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — ninth Percentile.
Taijuan Walker has walked 62 of 624 batters (10%) this season — 7th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 13th Percentile.
Taijuan Walker has allowed a slugging percentage of just .265 (36 Total Bases / 136 ABs) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .404 — 100th Percentile.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Braves are 43-35 (.551) when allowing 2 or more home runs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .303.
The Braves are 19-7 (.731) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Braves are 159-33 (.828) when allowing 4 or fewer runs since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .717.
The Braves are 5-2 (.714) after a win as underdogs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .432.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Phillies are 27-107 (.201) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .130.
The Phillies are 7-56 (.111) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .053.
The Phillies are 18-9 (.667) after a home loss this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .507.
The Phillies are 11-7 (.611) after a win as underdogs this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .432.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
Braves hitters are slugging .535 against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .420.
The Braves are batting .323 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .266.
Braves hitters are slugging .614 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .454.
Braves hitters are slugging .703 on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .576.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
The Phillies are batting .263 against LHP since last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .249.
Phillies hitters are slugging .424 against RHP since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .403.
Phillies hitters are slugging .456 against LHP this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .420.
Phillies hitters are slugging .507 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .449.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 29% against Braves pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 29% against Braves pitchers since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Phillies pitchers have walked 183 of 2,686 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 44% with two-strikes since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Phillies pitchers have walked 275 of 4,111 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the 2021 season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Phillies pitchers have an ERA of 3.61 (629.0 IP) at home this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 4.26.
Phillies vs. Braves Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Rhys Hoskins (Phillies): ACL, D60
- Jesse Chavez (Braves): Shin, D60
- Yonny Chirinos (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Samuel Hilliard (Braves): Heel, D60
- Tyler Matzek (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Ehire Adrianza (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Michael Soroka (Braves): Forearm, D60
- Kyle Wright (Braves): Shoulder, D60
- Kolby Allard (Braves): Shoulder, D60
- Daysbel Hernández (Braves): Forearm, D15
- Nick Anderson (Braves): Shoulder, D60
- Collin McHugh (Braves): Shoulder, D15
- Huascar Ynoa (Braves): Elbow, D60
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