- The Braves are -125 favorites vs the Phillies
- Braves starting pitcher: Max Fried
- Phillies starting pitcher: Zachary Wheeler
- Watch the game on NBCS-PH
The Atlanta Braves (-125) visit Citizens Bank Park to take on the Philadelphia Phillies (+105) on Tuesday, September 12, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Philadelphia.
The Braves are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+135).
The Braves vs Phillies Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Braves are 94-50 against the spread (ATS), while the Phillies are 63-81 ATS.
Braves vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Braves | -1.5 +135 | O 8.5 +100 | -125 |
| Phillies | +1.5 -160 | U 8.5 -120 | +105 |
Braves vs Phillies Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Tuesday‘s MLB matchup with 63.3% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Braves and Phillies and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Braves Player Prop Bets Today:
- Michael Harris II has hit the Hits Over in 35 of his last 50 games (+18.00 Units / 19% ROI)
- Orlando Arcia has hit the Hits Under in 18 of his last 29 games (+14.55 Units / 44% ROI)
- Orlando Arcia has hit the Singles Under in 23 of his last 31 games (+13.00 Units / 35% ROI)
- Marcell Ozuna has hit the Hits Over in 29 of his last 43 games (+12.60 Units / 15% ROI)
- Matt Olson has hit the Runs Over in 31 of his last 44 games (+12.15 Units / 19% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Trea Turner has hit the RBIs Over in 15 of his last 17 games (+21.40 Units / 126% ROI)
- Trea Turner has hit the Hits Over in 23 of his last 33 games (+17.30 Units / 30% ROI)
- Trea Turner has hit the Total Bases Over in 24 of his last 32 games (+16.35 Units / 47% ROI)
- Bryce Harper has hit the RBIs Over in 16 of his last 25 games at home (+14.15 Units / 57% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 19 of his last 24 games (+13.95 Units / 48% ROI)
Phillies vs Braves Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Eddie Rosario | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Bryce Harper | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Edmundo Sosa | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2000 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -900 |
| Matt Olson | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -375 |
Phillies vs Braves Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Eddie Rosario | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +130 |
| Bryce Harper | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Edmundo Sosa | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +135 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Matt Olson | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +160 |
Phillies vs Braves RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Eddie Rosario | 0.5 +225 | 0.5 -300 |
| Bryce Harper | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Edmundo Sosa | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| Matt Olson | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
Phillies vs Braves Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Max Fried | 5.5 -130 | 5.5 +100 |
| Zack Wheeler | 6.5 -120 | 6.5 -110 |
Braves Best Bets Today:
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in 76 of their last 135 games (+14.30 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 52 of their last 87 games (+13.75 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 61 of their last 87 games (+11.30 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 9 of their last 13 away games (+3.95 Units / 24% ROI)
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 54 of their last 87 games (+9.00 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 17 of their last 25 games at home (+8.09 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 15 of their last 25 games at home (+6.90 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Over in 15 of their last 25 games at home (+6.55 Units / 24% ROI)
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 75-69 against the Run Line (+2.55 Units / 1.5% ROI).
- 94-50 when betting on the Moneyline for +9.1 Units / 3.54% ROI
- 79-62 when betting on the total runs Over for +10.6 Units / 6.66% ROI
- 62-79 when betting on the total runs Under for -24.75 Units / -15.68% ROI
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 63-81 against the Run Line (-25.25 Units / -14.2% ROI).
- 79-65 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.75 Units / -3.29% ROI
- 63-69 when betting on the total runs Over for -12.7 Units / -8.01% ROI
- 69-63 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.1 Units / -0.06% ROI
Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Max Fried has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 74.8 MPH on pitches out of the zone since last season (156 balls in play) — tied for best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 121 total IP; League Avg: 80.6
Max Fried has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 74.6 MPH on pitches out of the zone since the 2021 season (218 balls in play) — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 185 total IP; League Avg: 80.5
Max Fried has allowed an OPS of just .435 (196 PA’s) with runners in scoring position since last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 122 total IP; League Avg: .725 — 100th Percentile.
Max Fried has allowed an OBP of just .228 (368 PA’s) versus the top of the order since last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 122 total IP; League Avg: .322 — 100th Percentile.
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Zack Wheeler has allowed an OBP of just .234 (334 PA’s) against right-handed batters this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .297 — 100th Percentile.
Zack Wheeler has thrown inside pitches 43% of the time (298/694) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 30% — 97th Percentile.
Zack Wheeler has thrown inside pitches 43% of the time (670/1,540) when behind in the count since the 2021 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 30% — 100th Percentile.
Zack Wheeler has allowed a slugging percentage of just .213 (16 Total Bases / 75 ABs) on low fastballs this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .395 — 100th Percentile.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Braves are 44-35 (.557) when allowing 2 or more home runs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .303.
The Braves are 19-7 (.731) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Braves are 159-33 (.828) when allowing 4 or fewer runs since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .717.
The Braves are 25-39 (.391) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .220.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Phillies are 20-19 (.513) after a win as underdogs since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .416.
The Phillies are 27-108 (.200) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .130.
The Phillies are 7-57 (.109) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .053.
The Phillies are 11-7 (.611) after a win as underdogs this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .433.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
Braves hitters are slugging .534 against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .420.
Braves hitters are slugging .467 against RHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .403.
Braves hitters are slugging .501 this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .416.
The Braves are batting .326 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .267.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
Phillies hitters are slugging .424 against RHP since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .403.
Phillies hitters are slugging .508 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .450.
Phillies hitters are slugging .431 since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .405.
Phillies hitters are slugging .239 on pitches out of the zone since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .214.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 29% against Braves pitchers since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 29% against Braves pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Phillies pitchers since last season — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 44% with two-strikes since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Phillies pitchers have allowed an exit velocity of 95 MPH or greater 1,323 times this season — 3rd fewest in MLB.
Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 27% in close and late situations since last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Phillies vs. Braves Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Rhys Hoskins (Phillies): ACL, D60
- Jesse Chavez (Braves): Shin, D60
- Yonny Chirinos (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Samuel Hilliard (Braves): Heel, D60
- Tyler Matzek (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Ehire Adrianza (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Michael Soroka (Braves): Forearm, D60
- Kolby Allard (Braves): Shoulder, D60
- Daysbel Hernández (Braves): Forearm, D60
- Nick Anderson (Braves): Shoulder, D60
- Collin McHugh (Braves): Shoulder, D15
- Huascar Ynoa (Braves): Elbow, D60
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