- The Braves are -165 favorites vs the Phillies
- Braves starting pitcher: Spencer Strider
- Phillies starting pitcher: Cristopher Sánchez
- Watch the game on NBCS-PH
The Atlanta Braves (-165) visit Citizens Bank Park to take on the Philadelphia Phillies (+140) on Wednesday, September 13, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Philadelphia.
The Braves are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-105).
The Braves vs Phillies Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.
This season, the Braves are 95-50 against the spread (ATS), while the Phillies are 64-81 ATS.
Braves vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Braves | -1.5 -105 | O 9 +100 | -165 |
| Phillies | +1.5 -115 | U 9 -120 | +140 |
Braves vs Phillies Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Wednesday‘s MLB matchup with 76.8% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Braves and Phillies and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Braves Player Prop Bets Today:
- Michael Harris II has hit the Hits Over in 35 of his last 50 games (+18.00 Units / 19% ROI)
- Orlando Arcia has hit the Hits Under in 19 of his last 30 games (+15.55 Units / 45% ROI)
- Orlando Arcia has hit the Singles Under in 24 of his last 32 games (+14.00 Units / 36% ROI)
- Marcell Ozuna has hit the Hits Over in 30 of his last 44 games (+13.60 Units / 16% ROI)
- Matt Olson has hit the Runs Over in 32 of his last 45 games (+13.15 Units / 20% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Trea Turner has hit the RBIs Over in 16 of his last 18 games (+23.20 Units / 129% ROI)
- Trea Turner has hit the Hits Over in 24 of his last 34 games (+18.30 Units / 31% ROI)
- Trea Turner has hit the Total Bases Over in 25 of his last 33 games (+17.50 Units / 49% ROI)
- Trea Turner has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 17 of his last 19 games (+14.70 Units / 56% ROI)
- Bryce Harper has hit the RBIs Over in 16 of his last 25 games at home (+14.30 Units / 57% ROI)
Phillies vs Braves Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -900 |
| Kevin Pillar | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Matt Olson | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -750 |
| Sean Murphy | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -900 |
| Michael Harris | 0.5 +775 | 0.5 -3000 |
Phillies vs Braves Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +135 |
| Kevin Pillar | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +135 |
| Matt Olson | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Sean Murphy | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +155 |
| Michael Harris | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +140 |
Phillies vs Braves RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -300 |
| Kevin Pillar | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
| Matt Olson | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Sean Murphy | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| Michael Harris | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -300 |
Phillies vs Braves Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Cristopher Sanchez | 4.5 -105 | 4.5 -130 |
| Spencer Strider | 8.5 +100 | 8.5 -135 |
Braves Best Bets Today:
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in 77 of their last 136 games (+15.30 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 52 of their last 88 games (+12.75 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 62 of their last 88 games (+12.30 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 10 of their last 14 away games (+4.95 Units / 27% ROI)
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 54 of their last 88 games (+8.00 Units / 6% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 16 of their last 26 games at home (+7.90 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Over in 16 of their last 26 games at home (+7.55 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 17 of their last 26 games at home (+6.69 Units / 22% ROI)
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 75-70 against the Run Line (+1.55 Units / 0.91% ROI).
- 95-50 when betting on the Moneyline for +10.1 Units / 3.91% ROI
- 80-62 when betting on the total runs Over for +11.6 Units / 7.24% ROI
- 62-80 when betting on the total runs Under for -25.85 Units / -16.26% ROI
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 64-81 against the Run Line (-24.25 Units / -13.52% ROI).
- 79-66 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.75 Units / -3.76% ROI
- 64-69 when betting on the total runs Over for -11.7 Units / -7.33% ROI
- 69-64 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.2 Units / -0.75% ROI
Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 49% (125/255) against Spencer Strider on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 27% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of 40% (574/1,436) against Spencer Strider this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 100th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of 44% (301/690) against Spencer Strider this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 27% — 100th Percentile.
Spencer Strider has 60 three-pitch strikeouts this season — most among pitchers in MLB — 100th Percentile.
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 59% (137/231) against Cristopher Sanchez this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 57 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 99th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 73% (46/63) against Cristopher Sanchez’s changeup this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 57 total IP; League Avg: 51% — 98th Percentile.
Opponents have a swing rate of just 34% (76/227) against Cristopher Sanchez on inside fastballs this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 57 total IP; League Avg: 50% — 0 Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 56% (110/196) against Cristopher Sanchez this season — 6th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 57 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 96th Percentile.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Braves are 44-35 (.557) when allowing 2 or more home runs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .303.
The Braves are 25-39 (.391) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .220.
The Braves are 5-2 (.714) after a win as underdogs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .433.
The Braves are 19-7 (.731) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Phillies are 27-108 (.200) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .130.
The Phillies are 19-110 (.147) when trailing entering the 8th inning since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .093.
The Phillies are 21-14 (.600) after a road win this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .496.
The Phillies are 10-117 (.079) when trailing entering the 9th inning since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .049.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
team hitters – away
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
Phillies hitters are slugging .508 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .450.
Phillies hitters are slugging .614 on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .577.
Phillies hitters are slugging .426 against RHP since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .403.
Phillies hitters are slugging .650 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .596.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 29% against Braves pitchers since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 29% against Braves pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes since last season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 44% with two-strikes since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Phillies pitchers since last season — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Phillies pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 88.3 MPH (3,564 batted balls) this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 89.1.
Phillies pitchers have walked 186 of 2,724 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Phillies vs. Braves Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Rhys Hoskins (Phillies): ACL, D60
- Jesse Chavez (Braves): Shin, D60
- Yonny Chirinos (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Samuel Hilliard (Braves): Heel, D60
- Tyler Matzek (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Ehire Adrianza (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Michael Soroka (Braves): Forearm, D60
- Kolby Allard (Braves): Shoulder, D60
- Daysbel Hernández (Braves): Forearm, D60
- Nick Anderson (Braves): Shoulder, D60
- Collin McHugh (Braves): Shoulder, D15
- Dylan Lee (Braves): Shoulder, D15
- Huascar Ynoa (Braves): Elbow, D60
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