Braves vs Phillies Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Sep 22

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
(AP Photo)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Sep 22, 2022, 3:30 PM
  • The Braves (93-56) are -150 favorites vs the Phillies (81-67)
  • Braves starting pitcher: Max Fried (13-6), 2.51 ERA
  • Phillies starting pitcher: Ranger Suárez (9-5), 3.52 ERA
  • Watch the game on FOX

The Atlanta Braves (-150) visit Citizens Bank Park to take on the Philadelphia Phillies (+125) on Thursday, September 22, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:15pm EDT in Philadelphia.

The Braves are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+115).

The Braves vs Phillies Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Braves are 92-55 against the spread (ATS), while the Phillies are 72-73 ATS.

Braves vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Braves-1.5 +115O 7.5 -115-150
Phillies +1.5 -140U 7.5 -105+125

Braves vs Phillies Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Thursday‘s matchup with 53.8% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Braves and Phillies and up-to-date player injuries.


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Best Braves Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Michael Harris II has hit the Hits Over in 74 of his last 99 games (+29.70 Units / 16% ROI)
  • Michael Harris II has hit the Total Bases Over in 40 of his last 58 games (+20.15 Units / 24% ROI)
  • Dansby Swanson has hit the Singles Over in 79 of his last 137 games (+18.65 Units / 12% ROI)
  • Matt Olson has hit the RBIs Under in 23 of his last 26 games (+17.95 Units / 37% ROI)
  • Matt Olson has hit the Hits Under in 15 of his last 21 games (+17.60 Units / 84% ROI)

Best Phillies Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Nick Castellanos has hit the RBIs Under in 39 of his last 52 games at home (+15.30 Units / 15% ROI)
  • Rhys Hoskins has hit the Runs Under in 25 of his last 36 games (+14.10 Units / 31% ROI)
  • Kyle Schwarber has hit the Runs Under in 38 of his last 65 games (+11.20 Units / 15% ROI)
  • Edmundo Sosa has hit the Singles Under in 21 of his last 28 games (+9.65 Units / 21% ROI)
  • Bryce Harper has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 14 games at home (+9.60 Units / 36% ROI)

Phillies vs Braves Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alec Bohm 0.5 +525 0.5 -1200
Bryce Harper 0.5 +475 0.5 -1000
Bryson Stott 0.5 +900 0.5 -10000
Dalton Guthrie 0.5 +800 0.5 -3000
J.T. Realmuto 0.5 +475 0.5 -1100

Phillies vs Braves Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alec Bohm 0.5 -275 0.5 +190
Bryce Harper 0.5 -190 0.5 +135
Bryson Stott 0.5 -145 0.5 +105
Dalton Guthrie 0.5 -115 0.5 -125
J.T. Realmuto 0.5 -200 0.5 +140

Phillies vs Braves RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alec Bohm 0.5 +170 0.5 -250
Bryce Harper 0.5 +185 0.5 -275
Bryson Stott 0.5 +240 0.5 -375
Dalton Guthrie 0.5 +290 0.5 -500
J.T. Realmuto 0.5 +180 0.5 -275

Phillies vs Braves Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Ranger Suarez 4.5 +100 4.5 -140
Max Fried 5.5 -125 5.5 -115
  • The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 22 of their last 33 games (+8.85 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in their last 5 games (+5.10 Units / 42% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in 8 of their last 12 away games (+3.70 Units / 28% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 16 of their last 28 games (+3.15 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 15 away games (+1.15 Units / 4% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 17 of their last 28 games (+6.05 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Over in 12 of their last 20 games (+3.20 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 10 of their last 16 games at home (+1.95 Units / 8% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 14 games (+1.30 Units / 6% ROI)

Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 77-70 against the Run Line (-1.6 Units / -0.86% ROI).

  • 92-55 when betting on the Moneyline for +13.55 Units / 5.39% ROI
  • 72-67 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.75 Units / -1.08% ROI
  • 67-72 when betting on the total runs Under for -12.05 Units / -7.48% ROI

Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 72-73 against the Run Line (-4.1 Units / -2.33% ROI).

  • 80-67 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.9 Units / 0.42% ROI
  • 74-67 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.5 Units / 0.31% ROI
  • 67-74 when betting on the total runs Under for -13.55 Units / -8.4% ROI

Max Fried has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 74.3 MPH on pitches out of the zone since the start of last season (172 balls in play) — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 154 total IP; League Avg: 80.3

Opponents have a groundball rate of 57% (96/168) against Max Fried in two-strike counts this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 46% — 97th Percentile.

Max Fried has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 74.1 MPH on pitches out of the zone since the start of 2020 (193 balls in play) — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 184 total IP; League Avg: 80.2

16 of Max Fried’s breaking pitch strikeouts are backdoor on breaking pitches this season — tied for 4th most among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: nan — 93rd Percentile.

Ranger Suárez: Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Opponents have a line drive rate of just 13% (20/153) against Ranger Suarez with runners in scoring position since the start of last season — tied for lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 155 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 100th Percentile.

Opponents have a line drive rate of just 19% (131/693) against Ranger Suarez since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 155 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 98th Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 62% (88/141) against Ranger Suarez in two-strike counts this season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 74 total IP; League Avg: 45% — 98th Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 57% (238/420) against Ranger Suarez this season — 5th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 74 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 97th Percentile.

Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies

The Braves are 11-3 (.786) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Braves are 41-30 (.577) on the road this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .473.

The Braves are 34-5 (.872) when scoring in the first inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .667.

The Braves are 64-9 (.877) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .802.

Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Braves

The Phillies are 11-51 (.177) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .085.

The Phillies are 14-51 (.215) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .119.

The Phillies are just 5-12 (.294) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Phillies are 45-32 (.584) at home this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .527.

Braves hitters are slugging .444 against RHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .394.

Braves hitters are slugging .483 on pitches 95 mph or greater this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .385.

Braves hitters are slugging .664 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .560.

Braves hitters have an OPS of .758 (8,677 PA’s) against RHP since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .715.

Phillies hitters have an OPS of just .544 (189 PA’s) in the first 3 innings this month (17 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .701.

Phillies hitters are slugging .470 against RHP this month (17 games) — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .397.

Phillies hitters have an OPS of .770 (2,836 PA’s) at home this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .718.

Phillies hitters have an OPS of .779 (1,639 PA’s) against LHP this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .714.

Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 31% this month (18 games) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Braves pitchers since the start of last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .185 against Braves pitchers with the shift this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .220.

Phillies pitchers have walked 179 of 2,737 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Phillies pitchers since the start of last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

The Phillies pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 87.7 MPH since the start of last season (7,478 balls in play) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 88.7

Opponents have a groundball batting average of .259 against Phillies pitchers with the shift this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: .220.

Phillies vs. Braves Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Hans Crouse (Phillies): Biceps, D60
  • Mark Appel (Phillies): Elbow, D60
  • James McArthur (Phillies): Elbow, D60
  • Nicholas Castellanos (Phillies): Oblique, D10
  • Brandon Marsh (Phillies): Undisclosed, Day-to-Day
  • Kent Emanuel (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
  • Edmundo Sosa (Phillies): Hamstring, D10
  • Símon Muzziotti (Phillies): Knee, D60
  • Damon Jones (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
  • Corey Knebel (Phillies): Lat, D60
  • Ozhanio Albies (Braves): Finger, D10
  • Darren O’Day (Braves): Calf, D60
  • Spencer Strider (Braves): Oblique, Day-to-Day
  • Manuel Piña (Braves): Wrist, D60
  • Chadwick Tromp (Braves): Quad, D10
  • Luke Jackson (Braves): Elbow, D60
  • Adam Duvall (Braves): Wrist, D60
  • Ehire Adrianza (Braves): Quad, D10
  • Kirby Yates (Braves): Elbow, D15

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.