- The Phillies (82-67) are -175 favorites vs the Braves (93-57)
- Braves starting pitcher: Jacob Odorizzi (5-5), 4.03 ERA
- Phillies starting pitcher: Aaron Nola (9-12), 3.38 ERA
- Watch the game on NBCS-PH
The Atlanta Braves (+145) visit Citizens Bank Park to take on the Philadelphia Phillies (-175) on Friday, September 23, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05pm EDT in Philadelphia.
The Phillies are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+125).
The Braves vs Phillies Over/Under is 7 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Braves are 92-56 against the spread (ATS), while the Phillies are 73-73 ATS.
Braves vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Braves | +1.5 -150 | O 7 -105 | +145 |
| Phillies | -1.5 +125 | U 7 -115 | -175 |
Braves vs Phillies Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Friday‘s matchup with 54.2% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Braves and Phillies and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Braves Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Michael Harris II has hit the Hits Over in 74 of his last 100 games (+27.85 Units / 15% ROI)
- Matt Olson has hit the RBIs Under in 24 of his last 27 games (+18.95 Units / 37% ROI)
- Michael Harris II has hit the Total Bases Over in 40 of his last 59 games (+18.30 Units / 21% ROI)
- Dansby Swanson has hit the Singles Over in 79 of his last 138 games (+17.40 Units / 11% ROI)
- Matt Olson has hit the Hits Under in 15 of his last 22 games (+16.60 Units / 75% ROI)
Best Phillies Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Nick Castellanos has hit the RBIs Under in 39 of his last 52 games at home (+15.30 Units / 15% ROI)
- Rhys Hoskins has hit the Runs Under in 26 of his last 37 games (+15.10 Units / 32% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Runs Under in 39 of his last 66 games (+12.20 Units / 16% ROI)
- Bryce Harper has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 15 games at home (+10.90 Units / 39% ROI)
- Edmundo Sosa has hit the Singles Under in 21 of his last 28 games (+9.65 Units / 21% ROI)
Phillies vs Braves Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alec Bohm | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Bryce Harper | 0.5 +300 | 0.5 -500 |
| Bryson Stott | 0.5 +750 | 0.5 -2500 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 +340 | 0.5 -650 |
| Jean Segura | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -2500 |
Phillies vs Braves Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alec Bohm | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +160 |
| Bryce Harper | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +160 |
| Bryson Stott | 0.5 -145 | 0.5 +100 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +165 |
| Jean Segura | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +120 |
Phillies vs Braves RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alec Bohm | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -225 |
| Bryce Harper | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -225 |
| Bryson Stott | 0.5 +225 | 0.5 -350 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -200 |
| Jean Segura | 0.5 +225 | 0.5 -350 |
Phillies vs Braves Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | 7.5 +110 | 7.5 -155 |
| Jake Odorizzi | 3.5 -155 | 3.5 +110 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Braves Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 79 of their last 124 games (+26.07 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 17 of their last 29 games (+4.15 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 5 of their last 6 away games (+3.90 Units / 58% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 5 of their last 6 games (+3.65 Units / 27% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Phillies: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 82 of their last 144 games (+17.20 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Under in 4 of their last 5 games (+2.95 Units / 54% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 11 of their last 17 games at home (+2.95 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 15 games (+2.55 Units / 11% ROI)
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 77-71 against the Run Line (-2.6 Units / -1.39% ROI).
- 92-56 when betting on the Moneyline for +12.1 Units / 4.78% ROI
- 72-68 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.85 Units / -1.74% ROI
- 68-72 when betting on the total runs Under for -11.05 Units / -6.81% ROI
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 73-73 against the Run Line (-3.1 Units / -1.75% ROI).
- 81-67 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.15 Units / 1% ROI
- 74-68 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.6 Units / -0.37% ROI
- 68-74 when betting on the total runs Under for -12.55 Units / -7.72% ROI
Jacob Odorizzi: Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jake Odorizzi has thrown elevated pitches 45% of the time (751/1,667) on pitches in the strike zone since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 155 total IP; League Avg: 28% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a first pitch chase rate of just 8% (16/202) against Jake Odorizzi this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 74 total IP; League Avg: 16% — 0 Percentile.
Jake Odorizzi has thrown elevated pitches 48% of the time (829/1,729) against right-handed batters since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 155 total IP; League Avg: 28% — 99th Percentile.
Jake Odorizzi has thrown elevated pitches 51% of the time (540/1,069) with two-strikes since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 155 total IP; League Avg: 30% — 100th Percentile.
Aaron Nola: Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Aaron Nola has walked 9 of 372 right-handed batters (2%) this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — 100th Percentile.
Aaron Nola has a first-pitch strike rate of 70% (517/740) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 63% — 100th Percentile.
Aaron Nola’s K:BB ratio is 12.1 (109/9) against right-handed batters this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 4.0 — 100th Percentile.
Aaron Nola has walked 26 of 736 batters (4%) this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — 97th Percentile.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Braves are 11-3 (.786) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Braves are 45-11 (.804) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .724.
The Braves are 9-4 (.692) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Braves are 34-5 (.872) when scoring in the first inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .667.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Phillies are 11-51 (.177) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .085.
The Phillies are 14-51 (.215) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .119.
The Phillies are just 5-12 (.294) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Phillies are 66-4 (.943) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .915.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
Braves hitters are slugging .624 on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .571.
Braves hitters have an OPS of .778 (1,535 PA’s) against LHP this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .714.
Braves hitters are slugging .660 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .559.
Braves hitters have 268 extra-base hits out of 669 total hits (40%) against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
Phillies hitters have an OBP of .336 (1,671 PA’s) against LHP this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .315.
Phillies hitters are slugging .491 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since the start of last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .450.
The Phillies are batting .266 against LHP this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .245.
The Phillies are batting .179 on pitches out of the zone this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .157.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 29% against Braves pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
The Braves pitchers have allowed the 30th hardest ball in play hit (122.4 MPH) this season (; League Avg: 117.2).
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Braves pitchers since the start of last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Phillies pitchers since the start of last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .259 against Phillies pitchers with the shift this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: .220.
Phillies pitchers have walked 179 of 2,746 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Phillies pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.7 MPH (3,620 batted balls) this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 88.6.
Phillies vs. Braves Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Hans Crouse (Phillies): Biceps, D60
- Mark Appel (Phillies): Elbow, D60
- James McArthur (Phillies): Elbow, D60
- Nicholas Castellanos (Phillies): Oblique, D10
- Kent Emanuel (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
- Edmundo Sosa (Phillies): Hamstring, D10
- Símon Muzziotti (Phillies): Knee, D60
- Damon Jones (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
- Corey Knebel (Phillies): Lat, D60
- Ronald Acuña Jr. (Braves): Back, Day-to-Day
- Ozhanio Albies (Braves): Finger, D10
- Darren O’Day (Braves): Calf, D60
- Spencer Strider (Braves): Oblique, Day-to-Day
- Manuel Piña (Braves): Wrist, D60
- Chadwick Tromp (Braves): Quad, D10
- Luke Jackson (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Adam Duvall (Braves): Wrist, D60
- Ehire Adrianza (Braves): Quad, D10
- Kirby Yates (Braves): Elbow, D15
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