Braves vs Phillies Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Sep 23

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
(AP Photo)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Sep 23, 2022, 3:31 PM
  • The Phillies (82-67) are -175 favorites vs the Braves (93-57)
  • Braves starting pitcher: Jacob Odorizzi (5-5), 4.03 ERA
  • Phillies starting pitcher: Aaron Nola (9-12), 3.38 ERA
  • Watch the game on NBCS-PH

The Atlanta Braves (+145) visit Citizens Bank Park to take on the Philadelphia Phillies (-175) on Friday, September 23, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05pm EDT in Philadelphia.

The Phillies are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+125).

The Braves vs Phillies Over/Under is 7 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Braves are 92-56 against the spread (ATS), while the Phillies are 73-73 ATS.

Braves vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Braves+1.5 -150O 7 -105+145
Phillies -1.5 +125U 7 -115-175

Braves vs Phillies Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Friday‘s matchup with 54.2% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Braves and Phillies and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Phillies vs Braves and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Braves Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Michael Harris II has hit the Hits Over in 74 of his last 100 games (+27.85 Units / 15% ROI)
  • Matt Olson has hit the RBIs Under in 24 of his last 27 games (+18.95 Units / 37% ROI)
  • Michael Harris II has hit the Total Bases Over in 40 of his last 59 games (+18.30 Units / 21% ROI)
  • Dansby Swanson has hit the Singles Over in 79 of his last 138 games (+17.40 Units / 11% ROI)
  • Matt Olson has hit the Hits Under in 15 of his last 22 games (+16.60 Units / 75% ROI)

Best Phillies Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Nick Castellanos has hit the RBIs Under in 39 of his last 52 games at home (+15.30 Units / 15% ROI)
  • Rhys Hoskins has hit the Runs Under in 26 of his last 37 games (+15.10 Units / 32% ROI)
  • Kyle Schwarber has hit the Runs Under in 39 of his last 66 games (+12.20 Units / 16% ROI)
  • Bryce Harper has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 15 games at home (+10.90 Units / 39% ROI)
  • Edmundo Sosa has hit the Singles Under in 21 of his last 28 games (+9.65 Units / 21% ROI)

Phillies vs Braves Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alec Bohm 0.5 +550 0.5 -1400
Bryce Harper 0.5 +300 0.5 -500
Bryson Stott 0.5 +750 0.5 -2500
J.T. Realmuto 0.5 +340 0.5 -650
Jean Segura 0.5 +700 0.5 -2500

Phillies vs Braves Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alec Bohm 0.5 -250 0.5 +160
Bryce Harper 0.5 -250 0.5 +160
Bryson Stott 0.5 -145 0.5 +100
J.T. Realmuto 0.5 -250 0.5 +165
Jean Segura 0.5 -175 0.5 +120

Phillies vs Braves RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alec Bohm 0.5 +160 0.5 -225
Bryce Harper 0.5 +150 0.5 -225
Bryson Stott 0.5 +225 0.5 -350
J.T. Realmuto 0.5 +140 0.5 -200
Jean Segura 0.5 +225 0.5 -350

Phillies vs Braves Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Aaron Nola 7.5 +110 7.5 -155
Jake Odorizzi 3.5 -155 3.5 +110
  • The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 79 of their last 124 games (+26.07 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 17 of their last 29 games (+4.15 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 5 of their last 6 away games (+3.90 Units / 58% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 5 of their last 6 games (+3.65 Units / 27% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 82 of their last 144 games (+17.20 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Under in 4 of their last 5 games (+2.95 Units / 54% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 11 of their last 17 games at home (+2.95 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 15 games (+2.55 Units / 11% ROI)

Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 77-71 against the Run Line (-2.6 Units / -1.39% ROI).

  • 92-56 when betting on the Moneyline for +12.1 Units / 4.78% ROI
  • 72-68 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.85 Units / -1.74% ROI
  • 68-72 when betting on the total runs Under for -11.05 Units / -6.81% ROI

Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 73-73 against the Run Line (-3.1 Units / -1.75% ROI).

  • 81-67 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.15 Units / 1% ROI
  • 74-68 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.6 Units / -0.37% ROI
  • 68-74 when betting on the total runs Under for -12.55 Units / -7.72% ROI

Jake Odorizzi has thrown elevated pitches 45% of the time (751/1,667) on pitches in the strike zone since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 155 total IP; League Avg: 28% — 100th Percentile.

Opponents have a first pitch chase rate of just 8% (16/202) against Jake Odorizzi this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 74 total IP; League Avg: 16% — 0 Percentile.

Jake Odorizzi has thrown elevated pitches 48% of the time (829/1,729) against right-handed batters since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 155 total IP; League Avg: 28% — 99th Percentile.

Jake Odorizzi has thrown elevated pitches 51% of the time (540/1,069) with two-strikes since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 155 total IP; League Avg: 30% — 100th Percentile.

Aaron Nola: Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Aaron Nola has walked 9 of 372 right-handed batters (2%) this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — 100th Percentile.

Aaron Nola has a first-pitch strike rate of 70% (517/740) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 63% — 100th Percentile.

Aaron Nola’s K:BB ratio is 12.1 (109/9) against right-handed batters this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 4.0 — 100th Percentile.

Aaron Nola has walked 26 of 736 batters (4%) this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — 97th Percentile.

Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies

The Braves are 11-3 (.786) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Braves are 45-11 (.804) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .724.

The Braves are 9-4 (.692) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Braves are 34-5 (.872) when scoring in the first inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .667.

Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Braves

The Phillies are 11-51 (.177) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .085.

The Phillies are 14-51 (.215) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .119.

The Phillies are just 5-12 (.294) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Phillies are 66-4 (.943) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .915.

Braves hitters are slugging .624 on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .571.

Braves hitters have an OPS of .778 (1,535 PA’s) against LHP this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .714.

Braves hitters are slugging .660 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .559.

Braves hitters have 268 extra-base hits out of 669 total hits (40%) against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 35%.

Phillies hitters have an OBP of .336 (1,671 PA’s) against LHP this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .315.

Phillies hitters are slugging .491 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since the start of last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .450.

The Phillies are batting .266 against LHP this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .245.

The Phillies are batting .179 on pitches out of the zone this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .157.

Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Opponents have a miss rate of 29% against Braves pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

The Braves pitchers have allowed the 30th hardest ball in play hit (122.4 MPH) this season (; League Avg: 117.2).

Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Braves pitchers since the start of last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Phillies pitchers since the start of last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of .259 against Phillies pitchers with the shift this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: .220.

Phillies pitchers have walked 179 of 2,746 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Phillies pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.7 MPH (3,620 batted balls) this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 88.6.

Phillies vs. Braves Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Hans Crouse (Phillies): Biceps, D60
  • Mark Appel (Phillies): Elbow, D60
  • James McArthur (Phillies): Elbow, D60
  • Nicholas Castellanos (Phillies): Oblique, D10
  • Kent Emanuel (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
  • Edmundo Sosa (Phillies): Hamstring, D10
  • Símon Muzziotti (Phillies): Knee, D60
  • Damon Jones (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
  • Corey Knebel (Phillies): Lat, D60
  • Ronald Acuña Jr. (Braves): Back, Day-to-Day
  • Ozhanio Albies (Braves): Finger, D10
  • Darren O’Day (Braves): Calf, D60
  • Spencer Strider (Braves): Oblique, Day-to-Day
  • Manuel Piña (Braves): Wrist, D60
  • Chadwick Tromp (Braves): Quad, D10
  • Luke Jackson (Braves): Elbow, D60
  • Adam Duvall (Braves): Wrist, D60
  • Ehire Adrianza (Braves): Quad, D10
  • Kirby Yates (Braves): Elbow, D15

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.