Braves vs Phillies Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Sep 24

min read
MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
(AP Photo)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Sep 24, 2022, 11:04 AM
  • The Phillies (83-67) are +110 underdogs vs the Braves (93-58)
  • Braves starting pitcher: Kyle Wright (19-5), 3.17 ERA
  • Phillies starting pitcher: Bailey Falter (5-3), 3.68 ERA
  • Watch the game on MLB Network

The Atlanta Braves (-130) visit Citizens Bank Park to take on the Philadelphia Phillies (+110) on Saturday, September 24, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 4:05pm EDT in Philadelphia.

The Braces are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5.

The Braves vs Phillies Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Braves are 92-57 against the spread (ATS), while the Phillies are 74-73 ATS.

Braves vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Braves-1.5O 8 -110-130
Phillies +1.5U 8 -110+110

Braves vs Phillies Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Saturday‘s matchup with 51.3% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Braves and Phillies and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Phillies vs Braves and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Braves Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Michael Harris II has hit the Hits Over in 74 of his last 101 games (+26.10 Units / 14% ROI)
  • Matt Olson has hit the RBIs Under in 25 of his last 28 games (+19.95 Units / 37% ROI)
  • Matt Olson has hit the Hits Under in 16 of his last 23 games (+17.60 Units / 77% ROI)
  • Michael Harris II has hit the Total Bases Over in 40 of his last 60 games (+16.45 Units / 19% ROI)
  • Dansby Swanson has hit the Singles Over in 79 of his last 139 games (+16.40 Units / 10% ROI)

Best Phillies Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Nick Castellanos has hit the RBIs Under in 39 of his last 52 games at home (+15.30 Units / 15% ROI)
  • Rhys Hoskins has hit the Runs Under in 26 of his last 38 games (+13.75 Units / 29% ROI)
  • Bryce Harper has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 16 games at home (+12.40 Units / 43% ROI)
  • Kyle Schwarber has hit the Runs Under in 39 of his last 67 games (+11.05 Units / 15% ROI)
  • Matt Vierling has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 13 games at home (+10.20 Units / 43% ROI)

Phillies vs Braves Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alec Bohm 0.5 +650 0.5 -2000
Brandon Marsh 0.5 +700 0.5 -2500
Bryce Harper 0.5 +333 0.5 -600
Bryson Stott 0.5 +775 0.5 -3000
J.T. Realmuto 0.5 +425 0.5 -800

Phillies vs Braves Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alec Bohm 0.5 -275 0.5 +185
Brandon Marsh 0.5 -200 0.5 +135
Bryce Harper 0.5 -275 0.5 +180
Bryson Stott 0.5 -155 0.5 +110
J.T. Realmuto 0.5 -275 0.5 +185

Phillies vs Braves RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alec Bohm 0.5 +170 0.5 -250
Brandon Marsh 0.5 +210 0.5 -350
Bryce Harper 0.5 +150 0.5 -225
Bryson Stott 0.5 +210 0.5 -350
J.T. Realmuto 0.5 +140 0.5 -200

Phillies vs Braves Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Bailey Falter 4.5 -145 4.5 +100
Kyle Wright 5.5 +120 5.5 -165
  • The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 79 of their last 125 games (+25.07 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in 28 of their last 47 away games (+11.20 Units / 21% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 28 of their last 47 away games (+8.40 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 32 of their last 51 away games (+5.55 Units / 6% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 5 of their last 7 games (+2.65 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 83 of their last 145 games (+18.20 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 19 of their last 29 games at home (+6.70 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 10 of their last 16 games (+3.55 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Over in 13 of their last 22 games (+3.10 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 19 of their last 29 games at home (+2.70 Units / 5% ROI)

Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 77-72 against the Run Line (-4.15 Units / -2.2% ROI).

  • 92-57 when betting on the Moneyline for +11.1 Units / 4.37% ROI
  • 73-68 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.85 Units / -1.12% ROI
  • 68-73 when betting on the total runs Under for -12.15 Units / -7.44% ROI

Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 74-73 against the Run Line (-1.75 Units / -0.98% ROI).

  • 82-67 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.15 Units / 1.46% ROI
  • 75-68 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.4 Units / 0.24% ROI
  • 68-75 when betting on the total runs Under for -13.65 Units / -8.34% ROI

Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 61% (140/228) against Kyle Wright this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — 97th Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 55% (257/469) against Kyle Wright this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 95th Percentile.

Kyle Wright has induced opposing hitters to ground into 26 double plays in 130 opportunities (20%) this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 12% — 100th Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 69% (22/32) against Kyle Wright — highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 44% — 100th Percentile.

Bailey Falter: Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

The last hit on a Bailey Falter breaking pitch was August 31st. Hitters are 0 for their last 15 in ABs ending on his breaking pitches. — Zack Britton has the longest active streak at 49.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 30% (16/53) against Bailey Falter this month (3 games) — 14th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 9 total IP; League Avg: 42% — eighth Percentile.

Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 29% (13/45) against Bailey Falter this month (3 games) — 9th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 9 total IP; League Avg: 42% — seventh Percentile.

Bailey Falter has allowed an OBP of just .160 (25 PA’s) versus the 2-3-4 hitters this month (3 games) — 5th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 9 total IP; League Avg: .312 — 97th Percentile.

Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies

The Braves are 11-3 (.786) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Braves are 9-4 (.692) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Braves are 52-26 (.667) at home this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .527.

The Braves are 64-9 (.877) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .802.

Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Braves

The Phillies are 11-51 (.177) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .085.

The Phillies are 14-51 (.215) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .118.

The Phillies are just 5-12 (.294) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Phillies are 67-4 (.944) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .915.

Braves hitters are slugging .659 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .559.

Braves hitters are slugging .441 against RHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .394.

Braves hitters are slugging .441 against RHP since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .402.

Braves hitters are slugging .451 against RHP since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: .404.

The Phillies are batting .265 against LHP this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .245.

Phillies hitters are slugging .539 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .447.

Phillies hitters are slugging .496 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since the start of last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .450.

Phillies hitters are slugging .426 this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .395.

Opponents have a miss rate of 29% against Braves pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Braves pitchers since the start of last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Phillies pitchers since the start of last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Phillies pitchers have walked 180 of 2,755 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

The Phillies pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 87.7 MPH this season (3,644 balls in play) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 88.6

Opponents have a groundball batting average of .249 against Phillies pitchers with the shift since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: .223.

Phillies vs. Braves Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Hans Crouse (Phillies): Biceps, D60
  • Mark Appel (Phillies): Elbow, D60
  • James McArthur (Phillies): Elbow, D60
  • Nicholas Castellanos (Phillies): Oblique, D10
  • Kent Emanuel (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
  • Edmundo Sosa (Phillies): Hamstring, D10
  • Símon Muzziotti (Phillies): Knee, D60
  • Damon Jones (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
  • Corey Knebel (Phillies): Lat, D60
  • Ronald Acuña Jr. (Braves): Back, Day-to-Day
  • Ozhanio Albies (Braves): Finger, D10
  • Darren O’Day (Braves): Calf, D60
  • Spencer Strider (Braves): Oblique, Day-to-Day
  • Manuel Piña (Braves): Wrist, D60
  • Chadwick Tromp (Braves): Quad, D10
  • Luke Jackson (Braves): Elbow, D60
  • Adam Duvall (Braves): Wrist, D60
  • Ehire Adrianza (Braves): Quad, D10
  • Kirby Yates (Braves): Elbow, D15

Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Phillies vs Braves and all MLB games with BetMGM


Bet on MLB Odds at BetMGM

At BetMGM, you can bet online with updated MLB betting odds. And with live sports betting, the best online sports betting and mobile sports betting (with the BetMGM Sportsbook app) experiences are at BetMGM.

About the Author

BetMGM Betting

Read More @BETMGM

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.