- The Phillies (83-67) are +110 underdogs vs the Braves (93-58)
- Braves starting pitcher: Kyle Wright (19-5), 3.17 ERA
- Phillies starting pitcher: Bailey Falter (5-3), 3.68 ERA
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The Atlanta Braves (-130) visit Citizens Bank Park to take on the Philadelphia Phillies (+110) on Saturday, September 24, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 4:05pm EDT in Philadelphia.
The Braces are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5.
The Braves vs Phillies Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Braves are 92-57 against the spread (ATS), while the Phillies are 74-73 ATS.
Braves vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Braves | -1.5 | O 8 -110 | -130 |
| Phillies | +1.5 | U 8 -110 | +110 |
Braves vs Phillies Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Saturday‘s matchup with 51.3% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Braves and Phillies and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Braves Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Michael Harris II has hit the Hits Over in 74 of his last 101 games (+26.10 Units / 14% ROI)
- Matt Olson has hit the RBIs Under in 25 of his last 28 games (+19.95 Units / 37% ROI)
- Matt Olson has hit the Hits Under in 16 of his last 23 games (+17.60 Units / 77% ROI)
- Michael Harris II has hit the Total Bases Over in 40 of his last 60 games (+16.45 Units / 19% ROI)
- Dansby Swanson has hit the Singles Over in 79 of his last 139 games (+16.40 Units / 10% ROI)
Best Phillies Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Nick Castellanos has hit the RBIs Under in 39 of his last 52 games at home (+15.30 Units / 15% ROI)
- Rhys Hoskins has hit the Runs Under in 26 of his last 38 games (+13.75 Units / 29% ROI)
- Bryce Harper has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 16 games at home (+12.40 Units / 43% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Runs Under in 39 of his last 67 games (+11.05 Units / 15% ROI)
- Matt Vierling has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 13 games at home (+10.20 Units / 43% ROI)
Phillies vs Braves Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alec Bohm | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Brandon Marsh | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Bryce Harper | 0.5 +333 | 0.5 -600 |
| Bryson Stott | 0.5 +775 | 0.5 -3000 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
Phillies vs Braves Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alec Bohm | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +185 |
| Brandon Marsh | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +135 |
| Bryce Harper | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +180 |
| Bryson Stott | 0.5 -155 | 0.5 +110 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +185 |
Phillies vs Braves RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alec Bohm | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -250 |
| Brandon Marsh | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -350 |
| Bryce Harper | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -225 |
| Bryson Stott | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -350 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -200 |
Phillies vs Braves Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bailey Falter | 4.5 -145 | 4.5 +100 |
| Kyle Wright | 5.5 +120 | 5.5 -165 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Braves Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 79 of their last 125 games (+25.07 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in 28 of their last 47 away games (+11.20 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 28 of their last 47 away games (+8.40 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 32 of their last 51 away games (+5.55 Units / 6% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 5 of their last 7 games (+2.65 Units / 18% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Phillies: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 83 of their last 145 games (+18.20 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 19 of their last 29 games at home (+6.70 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 10 of their last 16 games (+3.55 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Over in 13 of their last 22 games (+3.10 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 19 of their last 29 games at home (+2.70 Units / 5% ROI)
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 77-72 against the Run Line (-4.15 Units / -2.2% ROI).
- 92-57 when betting on the Moneyline for +11.1 Units / 4.37% ROI
- 73-68 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.85 Units / -1.12% ROI
- 68-73 when betting on the total runs Under for -12.15 Units / -7.44% ROI
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 74-73 against the Run Line (-1.75 Units / -0.98% ROI).
- 82-67 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.15 Units / 1.46% ROI
- 75-68 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.4 Units / 0.24% ROI
- 68-75 when betting on the total runs Under for -13.65 Units / -8.34% ROI
Kyle Wright: Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 61% (140/228) against Kyle Wright this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — 97th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 55% (257/469) against Kyle Wright this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 95th Percentile.
Kyle Wright has induced opposing hitters to ground into 26 double plays in 130 opportunities (20%) this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 12% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 69% (22/32) against Kyle Wright — highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 44% — 100th Percentile.
Bailey Falter: Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
The last hit on a Bailey Falter breaking pitch was August 31st. Hitters are 0 for their last 15 in ABs ending on his breaking pitches. — Zack Britton has the longest active streak at 49.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 30% (16/53) against Bailey Falter this month (3 games) — 14th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 9 total IP; League Avg: 42% — eighth Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 29% (13/45) against Bailey Falter this month (3 games) — 9th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 9 total IP; League Avg: 42% — seventh Percentile.
Bailey Falter has allowed an OBP of just .160 (25 PA’s) versus the 2-3-4 hitters this month (3 games) — 5th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 9 total IP; League Avg: .312 — 97th Percentile.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Braves are 11-3 (.786) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Braves are 9-4 (.692) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Braves are 52-26 (.667) at home this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .527.
The Braves are 64-9 (.877) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .802.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Phillies are 11-51 (.177) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .085.
The Phillies are 14-51 (.215) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .118.
The Phillies are just 5-12 (.294) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Phillies are 67-4 (.944) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .915.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
Braves hitters are slugging .659 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .559.
Braves hitters are slugging .441 against RHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .394.
Braves hitters are slugging .441 against RHP since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .402.
Braves hitters are slugging .451 against RHP since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: .404.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
The Phillies are batting .265 against LHP this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .245.
Phillies hitters are slugging .539 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .447.
Phillies hitters are slugging .496 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since the start of last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .450.
Phillies hitters are slugging .426 this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .395.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 29% against Braves pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Braves pitchers since the start of last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Phillies pitchers since the start of last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Phillies pitchers have walked 180 of 2,755 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Phillies pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 87.7 MPH this season (3,644 balls in play) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 88.6
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .249 against Phillies pitchers with the shift since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: .223.
Phillies vs. Braves Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Hans Crouse (Phillies): Biceps, D60
- Mark Appel (Phillies): Elbow, D60
- James McArthur (Phillies): Elbow, D60
- Nicholas Castellanos (Phillies): Oblique, D10
- Kent Emanuel (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
- Edmundo Sosa (Phillies): Hamstring, D10
- Símon Muzziotti (Phillies): Knee, D60
- Damon Jones (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
- Corey Knebel (Phillies): Lat, D60
- Ronald Acuña Jr. (Braves): Back, Day-to-Day
- Ozhanio Albies (Braves): Finger, D10
- Darren O’Day (Braves): Calf, D60
- Spencer Strider (Braves): Oblique, Day-to-Day
- Manuel Piña (Braves): Wrist, D60
- Chadwick Tromp (Braves): Quad, D10
- Luke Jackson (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Adam Duvall (Braves): Wrist, D60
- Ehire Adrianza (Braves): Quad, D10
- Kirby Yates (Braves): Elbow, D15
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