Phillies vs. Braves: NLDS Prediction & Odds

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Philadelphia Phillies' Bryce Harper celebrates with Nick Castellanos (8) after Harper hit a solo home run against the St. Louis Cardinals during the second inning in Game 2 of an NL wild-card baseball playoff series, Saturday, Oct. 8, 2022, in St. Louis.
(AP Photo/Jeff Roberson)
Rachael Millanta @rachaelmillanta Oct 10, 2022, 4:00 PM
  • The Division Series is the second round of the MLB postseason.
  • The Atlanta Braves will meet the Philadelphia Phillies for a five-game series.
  • The NL Division Series is Oct. 11‑16, 2022.
  • The winner of this series will advance to the NL Championship Series.

The playoffs continue on Tuesday, Oct. 11, with the Division Series, and things are continuing to heat up with fiercer competition. Under the new postseason format, the top two regular-season division winners from each league received a bye in the first round, but these teams are now back to meet the winners of the Wild Card Series — two from each league — to decide who will continue on in the playoffs.

In the NL, the Phillies will take on the Braves for a five-game Division Series split between Truist Park in Atlanta (Games 1, 2, and 5) and Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia (Games 3 and 4). The winner of this matchup will advance to the NL Championship Series to take on the winner of the Padres-Dodgers series. 

Phillies vs. Braves Series Schedule

GAMEDATETIMEFIELD
Game 1Tuesday, Oct. 111:07 p.m.Truist Park
Game 2Wednesday, Oct. 124:35 p.m.Truist Park
Game 3Friday, Oct. 144:37 p.m.Citizens Bank Park
Game 4Saturday, Oct. 152:07 p.m.Citizens Bank Park
Game 5Sunday, Oct. 164:37 p.m.Truist Park

Odds to Win NL Division Series (as of Oct. 10):

  • Phillies +165 to win
  • Braves -200 to win

Total Series Games Over/Under (as of Oct. 10):

  • Over 3.5 (-350)
  • Under 3.5 (+250)
  • Over 4.5 (+150)
  • Under 4.5 (-185)

Phillies vs. Braves Series Prediction

I predict the Braves will win the NL Division Series against the Phillies in five games.

The Braves have had a great year, battling in the second half of the regular season to win the NL East with a record of 101-61. Despite the New York Mets finishing the season with the same record, they were knocked into second place because they lost the season series with the Braves, 10-9, which served as the division’s tiebreaker.

Definitely not a bad time to be an Atlanta fan.

 

On the other side of the field, the Phillies have had a tumultuous and, at times, drama-ridden year. 

The team fired manager Joe Girardi in June after starting the season with a 22-29 record, and it turned out to be a very good call.

Bench coach Rob Thomson stepped up as interim manager and immediately led the Phillies to win 14 of their next 16 games. The team finished the regular season 87-75 to secure the third NL Wild Card spot.

In the Wild Card Series, the Phillies beat the St. Louis Cardinals on the road in two games to advance, recording 6-3 and 2-0 victories in the first and second games, respectively.

The Cardinals were the favorite going into the series, having ended the regular season with a 93-69 record compared to the Phillies’ 87-75. Regardless, the Phillies proved they are a force to be reckoned with and are likely to put up more of a fight than the odds imply.

Throughout the regular season, the Phillies and Braves met 19 times, with the Braves winning 11 games. The Phillies won eight games — five at home and three away — which isn’t particularly inspiring considering the series will start in Atlanta.

I was actually quite surprised the Phillies beat the Cardinals in the Wild Card Series, but now matched against the Braves, I don’t think the team’s luck will last much longer. 

Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record — Regular Season

Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 83-79 against the Run Line (-5.55 Units / -2.7% ROI).

  • 101-61 when betting on the Moneyline for +12.85 Units / 4.67% ROI
  • 80-74 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.75 Units / -0.97% ROI
  • 74-80 when betting on the total runs Under for -13.9 Units / -7.84% ROI

Braves Over/Under Record — Regular Season

In the 2022 regular season, the Braves hit the over 80 times, the under 74 times, and pushed 8.

Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record — Regular Season

Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 82-80 against the Run Line (-1.9 Units / -0.96% ROI).

  • 87-75 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.1 Units / -1.31% ROI
  • 81-75 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.35 Units / -0.75% ROI
  • 75-81 when betting on the total runs Under for -13.1 Units / -7.37% ROI

Phillies Over/Under Record — Regular Season

In the 2022 regular season, the Phillies hit the over 82 times, the under 75 times, and pushed 5.

Phillies Over/Under Record — Postseason

In the 2022 postseason, the Phillies have hit the over 1 time, the under 1 time, and pushed 0.

MLB Futures Betting

MLB futures are available at the online sportsbook throughout the year. With updated MLB MVP odds, World Series odds, Cy Young odds, and more, you can place a bet online over the winter, on Opening Day, or during the summer.

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About the Author

Rachael Millanta

Read More @rachaelmillanta

Rachael Millanta is a Web Content Writer for BetMGM focusing on Major League Baseball. Her work has been published in SB Nation, McSweeney’s Internet Tendency and Slackjaw Humor. Originally from Sydney, Australia, Rachael now resides in Chicago, Illinois.

Rachael Millanta is a Web Content Writer for BetMGM focusing on Major League Baseball. Her work has been published in SB Nation, McSweeney’s Internet Tendency and Slackjaw Humor. Originally from Sydney, Australia, Rachael now resides in Chicago, Illinois.