- The – are favorites vs the –
- Braves starting pitcher: Bryce Elder
- Pirates starting pitcher: Bailey Falter
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The Atlanta Braves () visit PNC Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates () on Thursday, August 10, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 12:35pm EDT in Pittsburgh.
The – are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at ().
The Braves vs Pirates Over/Under is total runs for the game.
This season, the Braves are 72-40 against the spread (ATS), while the Pirates are 56-58 ATS.
Braves vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Braves | O | ||
| Pirates | U |
Braves vs Pirates Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Thursday‘s MLB matchup with 78.5% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Braves and Pirates and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Braves Player Prop Bets Today:
- Ozzie Albies has hit the Runs Over in 35 of his last 47 games (+19.75 Units / 32% ROI)
- Michael Harris II has hit the Hits Over in 39 of his last 48 games (+18.15 Units / 16% ROI)
- Marcell Ozuna has hit the Total Bases Under in 21 of his last 26 games (+13.95 Units / 34% ROI)
- Matt Olson has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 28 of his last 42 games (+12.60 Units / 25% ROI)
- Matt Olson has hit the RBIs Over in 27 of his last 44 games (+12.05 Units / 26% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jared Triolo has hit the Singles Over in 21 of his last 26 games (+15.65 Units / 51% ROI)
- Jared Triolo has hit the Hits Over in 21 of his last 26 games (+12.80 Units / 25% ROI)
- Henry Davis has hit the Singles Under in 13 of his last 15 games (+10.25 Units / 51% ROI)
- Jack Suwinski has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 18 games (+10.05 Units / 52% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Total Bases Under in 17 of his last 22 games at home (+10.05 Units / 30% ROI)
Pirates vs Braves Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryan Reynolds | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Kevin Pillar | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Liover Peguero | 0.5 +750 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Matt Olson | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
| Ke'Bryan Hayes | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1600 |
Pirates vs Braves Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryan Reynolds | 1.5 +185 | 1.5 -250 |
| Kevin Pillar | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +175 |
| Liover Peguero | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +130 |
| Matt Olson | 1.5 +185 | 1.5 -250 |
| Jack Suwinski | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
Pirates vs Braves RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryan Reynolds | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Kevin Pillar | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| RBis will Liover Peguero | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Matt Olson | 0.5 +105 | 0.5 -135 |
| Ke'Bryan Hayes | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
Pirates vs Braves Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Falter | 3.5 +125 | 3.5 -165 |
| Bryce Elder | 4.5 +130 | 4.5 -165 |
Braves Best Bets Today:
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Team Total Over in 37 of their last 54 games (+17.55 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 64 of their last 112 games (+11.90 Units / 6% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 67 of their last 112 games (+10.20 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 33 of their last 55 games (+8.45 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 9 of their last 12 games (+5.29 Units / 36% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 52 of their last 86 games (+15.25 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 10 of their last 17 games (+9.79 Units / 56% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 14 of their last 19 games (+9.19 Units / 42% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in their last 6 games (+7.49 Units / 120% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 11 of their last 15 games (+7.40 Units / 42% ROI)
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 56-56 against the Run Line (-2.75 Units / -2.09% ROI).
- 72-40 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.4 Units / 2.82% ROI
- 60-48 when betting on the total runs Over for +7.2 Units / 5.88% ROI
- 48-60 when betting on the total runs Under for -17.95 Units / -14.73% ROI
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 56-58 against the Run Line (-15.8 Units / -10.56% ROI).
- 51-63 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.25 Units / 1.01% ROI
- 59-49 when betting on the total runs Over for +5.55 Units / 4.48% ROI
- 49-59 when betting on the total runs Under for -15.7 Units / -12.59% ROI
Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Bryce Elder has located his fastballs down 48% of the time (489/1,017) this season — 2nd highest among in MLB; League Avg: 29% — 97th Percentile.
Opposing hitters have a groundball rate of 59% (48/81) against Bryce Elder when he’s behind in the count this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 40% — 98th Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 19% (103/539) against Bryce Elder since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 109 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 99th Percentile.
Bryce Elder has a strikeout rate of just 35% (92 SO in 265 PAs) with two-strikes this season — tied for 7th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 11th Percentile.
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Bailey Falter has walked 26 of 541 batters (5%) since last season — tied for 13th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 109 total IP; League Avg: 7% — 93rd Percentile.
Bailey Falter has allowed a slugging percentage of .481 (243 Total Bases / 505 ABs) since last season — 12th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 109 total IP; League Avg: .404 — sixth Percentile.
Bailey Falter has a strike rate of 68% (1,363/2,019) since last season — tied for 14th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 109 total IP; League Avg: 65% — 92nd Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of 27% (108/405) against Bailey Falter since last season — 9th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 109 total IP; League Avg: 24% — fifth Percentile.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Braves are 42-30 (.583) when allowing 2 or more home runs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .302.
The Braves are 18-17 (.514) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .273.
The Braves are 21-31 (.404) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .218.
The Braves are 18-7 (.720) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Pirates are just 16-30 (.348) after a road win since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .491.
The Pirates are just 13-126 (.094) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .129.
The Pirates are just 93-53 (.637) when allowing 4 or fewer runs since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .714.
The Pirates are just 10-16 (.385) after a home loss this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .508.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
Braves hitters are slugging .463 against RHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .401.
Braves hitters are slugging .499 this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .413.
Braves hitters have an OPS of .841 (4,281 PA’s) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .732.
Braves hitters are slugging .522 at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .421.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
The Pirates are batting just .188 on breaking pitches since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .220.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .370 against LHP since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .406.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .506 on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .575.
The Pirates are batting just .322 on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .342.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
The Braves pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 34% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
The Braves pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 24% of their games on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 45%.
Braves pitchers have won 47% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 29% against Braves pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have walked 1,000 of 10,625 batters (9%) since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 331 of 3,824 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the 2021 season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 22% in close and late situations since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Pirates pitchers have allowed a run 38% of the time after an opposing score this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.
Pirates vs. Braves Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Jarlín García (Pirates): Arm, D60
- Vincent Velasquez (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Max Kranick (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Tucupita Marcano (Pirates): Knee, D60
- Dauri Moreta (Pirates): Back, D15
- Oneil Cruz (Pirates): Ankle, D60
- Jonathan Brubaker (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Ji Hwan Bae (Pirates): Ankle, D10
- Jesse Chavez (Braves): Shin, D60
- Dylan Lee (Braves): Shoulder, D60
- Samuel Hilliard (Braves): Heel, D10
- Tyler Matzek (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Ehire Adrianza (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Kyle Wright (Braves): Shoulder, D60
- Kolby Allard (Braves): Shoulder, D60
- Daysbel Hernández (Braves): Forearm, D15
- Nick Anderson (Braves): Shoulder, D60
- Huascar Ynoa (Braves): Elbow, D60
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