- The Braves (76-48) are -275 favorites vs the Pirates (47-75)
- Braves starting pitcher: Max Fried (11-4), 2.60 ERA
- Pirates starting pitcher: Jonathan Brubaker (3-10), 4.18 ERA
- Watch the game on SportsNet PT
The Atlanta Braves (-275) visit PNC Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates (+225) on Tuesday, August 23, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05pm EDT in Pittsburgh.
The Braves are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -2.5 (+100).
The Braves vs Pirates Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Braves are 74-47 against the spread (ATS), while the Pirates are 61-57 ATS.
Braves vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Braves | -2.5 +100 | O 8 -115 | -275 |
| Pirates | +2.5 -120 | U 8 -105 | +225 |
Braves vs Pirates Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Tuesday‘s matchup with 57.4% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Braves and Pirates and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Braves Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Dansby Swanson has hit the Singles Over in 64 of his last 112 games (+16.05 Units / 13% ROI)
- Michael Harris II has hit the Total Bases Over in 26 of his last 36 away games (+14.65 Units / 27% ROI)
- Michael Harris II has hit the Hits Over in 53 of his last 74 games (+14.40 Units / 11% ROI)
- Austin Riley has hit the Hits Over in 49 of his last 81 games (+11.25 Units / 8% ROI)
- Dansby Swanson has hit the Hits Over in 63 of his last 110 games (+10.85 Units / 6% ROI)
Best Pirates Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Runs Under in 28 of his last 38 games at home (+15.00 Units / 26% ROI)
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Total Bases Under in 32 of his last 44 games at home (+14.15 Units / 20% ROI)
- Rodolfo Castro has hit the Runs Under in 16 of his last 19 games (+10.10 Units / 27% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Runs Under in 28 of his last 41 games at home (+9.95 Units / 15% ROI)
- Ben Gamel has hit the Runs Under in 16 of his last 19 games at home (+9.90 Units / 24% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Braves Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 62 of their last 98 games (+20.22 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 20 of their last 34 games (+5.80 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 54 of their last 91 games (+0.90 Units / 1% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Pirates: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 17 of their last 29 games at home (+5.60 Units / 18% ROI)
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 63-58 against the Run Line (-1.55 Units / -1.01% ROI).
- 74-47 when betting on the Moneyline for +8.35 Units / 4.26% ROI
- 60-53 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.55 Units / 1.16% ROI
- 53-60 when betting on the total runs Under for -12.95 Units / -9.76% ROI
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 61-57 against the Run Line (-3.95 Units / -2.65% ROI).
- 46-72 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.3 Units / -4.33% ROI
- 52-58 when betting on the total runs Over for -11.45 Units / -8.84% ROI
- 58-52 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.7 Units / 0.54% ROI
Max Fried: Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Max Fried has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 73.5 MPH on pitches out of the zone since the start of last season (152 balls in play) — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 140 total IP; League Avg: 80.3
Opponents have a chase percentage of 51% (180/352) against Max Fried with two-strikes this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 42% — 100th Percentile.
Max Fried has allowed an OBP of just .182 (285 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — 5th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .225 — 93rd Percentile.
15 of Max Fried’s breaking pitch strikeouts are backdoor on breaking pitches this season — tied for 4th most among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: nan — 94th Percentile.
Jonathan Brubaker: Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
JT Brubaker has a strike rate of just 59% (350/589) in two strike counts this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 66% — first Percentile.
JT Brubaker has walked 21 of 144 batters (15%) with runners in scoring position this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 8% — first Percentile.
JT Brubaker has allowed an OBP of .281 (281 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — tied for 4th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .225 — eighth Percentile.
JT Brubaker has allowed an OBP of .345 (278 PA’s) against right-handed batters this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .293 — third Percentile.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Braves are 30-4 (.882) when scoring in the first inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .663.
The Braves are 66-14 (.825) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .705.
The Braves are 11-3 (.786) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Braves are 43-10 (.811) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .710.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Pirates are just 86-23 (.789) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .875.
The Pirates are just 2-60 (.032) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .086.
The Pirates are just 51-121 (.297) on the road since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .463.
The Pirates are just 44-64 (.407) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .533.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
Braves hitters are slugging .669 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .554.
Braves hitters have an OPS of .793 (1,588 PA’s) in the first 3 innings this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .712.
The Braves are batting .264 against LHP this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .245.
Braves hitters are slugging .450 against LHP this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .397.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
Pirates hitters have an OBP of just .221 (5,485 PA’s) with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .243.
Pirates hitters have an OBP of just .291 (2,905 PA’s) against RHP this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .310.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .304 in righty-righty matchups since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .399.
The Pirates are batting just .114 on pitches out of the zone this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .158.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Braves pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Braves pitchers have walked 5 of 189 batters (3%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this month (21 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have walked 282 of 2,981 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of 2020 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 223 of 2,465 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Pirates pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 61% of their games on the road this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Pirates pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% with runners in scoring position since the start of last season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Pirates vs. Braves Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Ke’Bryan Hayes (Pirates): Back, D10
- Max Kranick (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Mitch Keller (Pirates): Shoulder, Day-to-Day
- Yerry De Los Santos (Pirates): Lat, D60
- Dillon Peters (Pirates): Elbow, D15
- Canaan Smith-Njigba (Pirates): Wrist, D60
- Roberto Pérez (Pirates): Hamstring, D60
- Blake Cederlind (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- David Bednar (Pirates): Back, D15
- Orlando Arcia (Braves): Hamstring, D10
- Ozhanio Albies (Braves): Foot, D60
- Darren O’Day (Braves): Calf, D15
- Michael Soroka (Braves): Achilles, D60
- Manuel Piña (Braves): Wrist, D60
- Chadwick Tromp (Braves): Quad, D10
- Luke Jackson (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Adam Duvall (Braves): Wrist, D60
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