Braves vs Pirates Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Aug 23

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Aug 23, 2022, 10:21 AM
  • The Braves (76-48) are -275 favorites vs the Pirates (47-75)
  • Braves starting pitcher: Max Fried (11-4), 2.60 ERA
  • Pirates starting pitcher: Jonathan Brubaker (3-10), 4.18 ERA
  • Watch the game on SportsNet PT

The Atlanta Braves (-275) visit PNC Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates (+225) on Tuesday, August 23, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05pm EDT in Pittsburgh.

The Braves are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -2.5 (+100).

The Braves vs Pirates Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Braves are 74-47 against the spread (ATS), while the Pirates are 61-57 ATS.

Braves vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Braves-2.5 +100O 8 -115-275
Pirates +2.5 -120U 8 -105+225

Braves vs Pirates Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Tuesday‘s matchup with 57.4% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Braves and Pirates and up-to-date player injuries.


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Best Braves Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Dansby Swanson has hit the Singles Over in 64 of his last 112 games (+16.05 Units / 13% ROI)
  • Michael Harris II has hit the Total Bases Over in 26 of his last 36 away games (+14.65 Units / 27% ROI)
  • Michael Harris II has hit the Hits Over in 53 of his last 74 games (+14.40 Units / 11% ROI)
  • Austin Riley has hit the Hits Over in 49 of his last 81 games (+11.25 Units / 8% ROI)
  • Dansby Swanson has hit the Hits Over in 63 of his last 110 games (+10.85 Units / 6% ROI)

Best Pirates Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Runs Under in 28 of his last 38 games at home (+15.00 Units / 26% ROI)
  • Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Total Bases Under in 32 of his last 44 games at home (+14.15 Units / 20% ROI)
  • Rodolfo Castro has hit the Runs Under in 16 of his last 19 games (+10.10 Units / 27% ROI)
  • Bryan Reynolds has hit the Runs Under in 28 of his last 41 games at home (+9.95 Units / 15% ROI)
  • Ben Gamel has hit the Runs Under in 16 of his last 19 games at home (+9.90 Units / 24% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 62 of their last 98 games (+20.22 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 20 of their last 34 games (+5.80 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 54 of their last 91 games (+0.90 Units / 1% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 17 of their last 29 games at home (+5.60 Units / 18% ROI)

Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 63-58 against the Run Line (-1.55 Units / -1.01% ROI).

  • 74-47 when betting on the Moneyline for +8.35 Units / 4.26% ROI
  • 60-53 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.55 Units / 1.16% ROI
  • 53-60 when betting on the total runs Under for -12.95 Units / -9.76% ROI

Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 61-57 against the Run Line (-3.95 Units / -2.65% ROI).

  • 46-72 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.3 Units / -4.33% ROI
  • 52-58 when betting on the total runs Over for -11.45 Units / -8.84% ROI
  • 58-52 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.7 Units / 0.54% ROI

Max Fried has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 73.5 MPH on pitches out of the zone since the start of last season (152 balls in play) — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 140 total IP; League Avg: 80.3

Opponents have a chase percentage of 51% (180/352) against Max Fried with two-strikes this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 42% — 100th Percentile.

Max Fried has allowed an OBP of just .182 (285 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — 5th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .225 — 93rd Percentile.

15 of Max Fried’s breaking pitch strikeouts are backdoor on breaking pitches this season — tied for 4th most among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: nan — 94th Percentile.

Jonathan Brubaker: Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

JT Brubaker has a strike rate of just 59% (350/589) in two strike counts this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 66% — first Percentile.

JT Brubaker has walked 21 of 144 batters (15%) with runners in scoring position this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 8% — first Percentile.

JT Brubaker has allowed an OBP of .281 (281 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — tied for 4th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .225 — eighth Percentile.

JT Brubaker has allowed an OBP of .345 (278 PA’s) against right-handed batters this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .293 — third Percentile.

Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates

The Braves are 30-4 (.882) when scoring in the first inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .663.

The Braves are 66-14 (.825) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .705.

The Braves are 11-3 (.786) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Braves are 43-10 (.811) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .710.

Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Braves

The Pirates are just 86-23 (.789) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .875.

The Pirates are just 2-60 (.032) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .086.

The Pirates are just 51-121 (.297) on the road since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .463.

The Pirates are just 44-64 (.407) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .533.

Braves hitters are slugging .669 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .554.

Braves hitters have an OPS of .793 (1,588 PA’s) in the first 3 innings this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .712.

The Braves are batting .264 against LHP this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .245.

Braves hitters are slugging .450 against LHP this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .397.

Pirates hitters have an OBP of just .221 (5,485 PA’s) with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .243.

Pirates hitters have an OBP of just .291 (2,905 PA’s) against RHP this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .310.

Pirates hitters are slugging just .304 in righty-righty matchups since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .399.

The Pirates are batting just .114 on pitches out of the zone this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .158.

Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Braves pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

Braves pitchers have walked 5 of 189 batters (3%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this month (21 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.

Pirates pitchers have walked 282 of 2,981 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of 2020 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Pirates pitchers have walked 223 of 2,465 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

The Pirates pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 61% of their games on the road this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.

Pirates pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% with runners in scoring position since the start of last season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Pirates vs. Braves Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Ke’Bryan Hayes (Pirates): Back, D10
  • Max Kranick (Pirates): Elbow, D60
  • Mitch Keller (Pirates): Shoulder, Day-to-Day
  • Yerry De Los Santos (Pirates): Lat, D60
  • Dillon Peters (Pirates): Elbow, D15
  • Canaan Smith-Njigba (Pirates): Wrist, D60
  • Roberto Pérez (Pirates): Hamstring, D60
  • Blake Cederlind (Pirates): Elbow, D60
  • David Bednar (Pirates): Back, D15
  • Orlando Arcia (Braves): Hamstring, D10
  • Ozhanio Albies (Braves): Foot, D60
  • Darren O’Day (Braves): Calf, D15
  • Michael Soroka (Braves): Achilles, D60
  • Manuel Piña (Braves): Wrist, D60
  • Chadwick Tromp (Braves): Quad, D10
  • Luke Jackson (Braves): Elbow, D60
  • Adam Duvall (Braves): Wrist, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.