• The Braves are -120 favorites vs the Pirates
• Braves vs Pirates Over / Under today: 10 Runs
• Braves / Pirates TV Channel: BRVN | SNPT

The Atlanta Braves (-120) visit PNC Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates (+100) on July 9, 2026. First pitch is scheduled for 12:35 pm in Pittsburgh, PA.

This season, the Braves are 53-38 against the spread (ATS), while the Pirates are 46-45 ATS.

Braves vs Pirates Starting Pitchers Today:

• Braves starting pitcher: Bryce Elder 5-6, 4.03 ERA
• Pirates starting pitcher: Mitch Keller 6-6, 5.03 ERA

Braves vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Braves vs Pirates Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Pirates will win Thursday‘s MLB game with 51.8% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.

Bet now on Braves vs Pirates and all games with BetMGM

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Braves Player Prop Bets Today:

• Joey Bart has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 6 away games (+19.40 Units / 323% ROI)
• Drake Baldwin has hit the Hits Under in 16 of his last 20 games (+18.45 Units / 69% ROI)
• Drake Baldwin has hit the Total Bases Under in 17 of his last 20 games (+12.90 Units / 42% ROI)
• Matt Olson has hit the RBIs Under in 17 of his last 20 games (+11.30 Units / 28% ROI)
• Austin Riley has hit the Runs Under in 20 of his last 25 games (+10.95 Units / 25% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Pirates Player Prop Best Bets Today:

• Henry Davis has hit the Singles Under in 22 of his last 25 games (+16.30 Units / 34% ROI)
• Esmerlyn Valdez has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 8 games at home (+13.50 Units / 169% ROI)
• Marcell Ozuna has hit the Runs Under in 17 of his last 20 games (+12.45 Units / 35% ROI)
• Henry Davis has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 18 of his last 25 games at home (+11.60 Units / 36% ROI)
• Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 25 games (+11.55 Units / 24% ROI)

Braves Best Bets Today:

• The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 30 of their last 50 away games (+10.00 Units / 16% ROI)
• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in 29 of their last 50 away games (+7.95 Units / 14% ROI)
• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Team Total Under in 11 of their last 14 away games (+7.85 Units / 47% ROI)
• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 30 of their last 50 away games (+6.80 Units / 11% ROI)
• The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 29 of their last 50 away games (+5.60 Units / 10% ROI)

Pirates Best Bets Today:

• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Over in 30 of their last 45 games at home (+13.85 Units / 28% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Over in 11 of their last 14 games (+7.75 Units / 48% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 29 of their last 50 games at home (+7.15 Units / 12% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 11 of their last 16 games (+5.10 Units / 27% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 24 of their last 50 games at home (+4.10 Units / 7% ROI)

Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Braves are 48-42 against the Run Line (+10.85 Units / 10.41% ROI).

• 53-38 when betting on the Moneyline for +4 Units / 3.23% ROI
• 43-42 when betting on the total runs Over for -3 Units / -2.98% ROI
• 42-43 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.75 Units / -4.77% ROI

Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Pirates are 46-45 against the Run Line (-0.15 Units / -0.13% ROI).

• 47-46 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.7 Units / -6.53% ROI
• 53-37 when betting on the total runs Over for +12.45 Units / 12.15% ROI
• 37-53 when betting on the total runs Under for -21 Units / -20.55% ROI

Pirates vs Braves Home Run Prop Bets Today

Pirates vs Braves Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Pirates vs Braves Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates

The Braves are 7-0 (1.000) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Braves are 53-38 (.582) this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Braves are 6-2 (.750) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Braves are 47-11 (.810) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .726.

Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Braves

The Pirates are just 4-23 (.148) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .250.

The Pirates are 27-18 (.600) after a loss this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .485.

The Pirates are just 21-49 (.300) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams since the 2025 season Today, they face Braves (fifth in runs allowed).

The Pirates are just 2-119 (.017) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2025 season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .047.

Braves Hitting Stats & Trends

Braves hitters have an OPS of .558 (1,836 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — best in MLB.

Braves hitters are slugging .304 with two-strikes this season — best in MLB.

The Braves have a winning percentage of 58% this season — 4th best in MLB.

The Braves have a winning percentage of 56% on the road this season — 4th best in MLB.

Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends

The Pirates are batting .304 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB.

Pirates hitters have struck out in 26% of their PA’s against LHP this season — 2nd highest in MLB.

Pirates hitters have an OBP of .353 (2,671 PA’s) against RHP this season — best in MLB.

The Pirates are batting .275 at home this season — best in MLB.

Braves Pitching Stats & Trends

The Braves have won 52% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — highest in MLB.

Braves pitchers have allowed an exit velocity over 105 MPH 175 times this season — 3rd fewest in MLB.

The Braves have allowed 0.97 runs per game (88/91) in late innings this season — best in MLB.

The Braves pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 47% of their games at home this season — 5th lowest in MLB.

Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends

In games when their opponents have scored three or more runs in an inning, the Pirates won just 14% of the time this season — 2nd lowest in MLB.

The Pirates have allowed 1.74 runs per game (162/93) in late innings this season — 3rd highest in MLB.

Pirates pitchers have a strikeout rate of 24% when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for 5th best in MLB.

The Pirates pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in just 39% of their games this season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB.

More MLB Reading:

• Home Run Predictions Today
• Best NRFI Bets Today
• Strikeout Props Today
• MLB Starting Pitchers Today

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