- The Braves are -110 favorites vs the Rays
- Braves starting pitcher: Charles Morton
- Rays starting pitcher: Tyler Glasnow
- Watch the game on Apple TV+
The Atlanta Braves (-110) visit Tropicana Field to take on the Tampa Bay Rays (-110) on Friday, July 7, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in St. Petersburg.
The Braves are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+150).
The Braves vs Rays Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Braves are 58-28 against the spread (ATS), while the Rays are 48-42 ATS.
Braves vs. Rays Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Braves | -1.5 +150 | O 8.5 -115 | -110 |
| Rays | +1.5 -185 | U 8.5 -105 | -110 |
Braves vs Rays Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Rays will win Friday‘s MLB matchup with 51.0% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Braves and Rays and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Braves Player Prop Bets Today:
- Marcell Ozuna has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 15 games (+12.80 Units / 45% ROI)
- Ronald Acuna Jr. has hit the Runs Over in 17 of his last 20 games (+11.40 Units / 32% ROI)
- Marcell Ozuna has hit the Singles Over in 26 of his last 46 games (+10.90 Units / 23% ROI)
- Michael Harris II has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 32 of his last 50 games (+10.55 Units / 17% ROI)
- Austin Riley has hit the Hits Over in 31 of his last 48 games (+10.25 Units / 11% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rays players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Rays Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Luke Raley has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 18 of his last 22 games (+14.35 Units / 58% ROI)
- Luke Raley has hit the Runs Over in 13 of his last 17 games (+11.75 Units / 68% ROI)
- Randy Arozarena has hit the Total Bases Under in 18 of his last 24 games at home (+9.70 Units / 24% ROI)
- Luke Raley has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 17 games (+8.95 Units / 29% ROI)
- Zach Eflin has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 10 of his last 12 games (+8.75 Units / 66% ROI)
Rays vs Braves Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Eddie Rosario | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Christian Bethancourt | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Jose Siri | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Matt Olson | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -375 |
| Sean Murphy | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -1000 |
Rays vs Braves Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Eddie Rosario | 0.5 -140 | 0.5 +105 |
| Christian Bethancourt | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Jose Siri | 0.5 -145 | 0.5 +110 |
| Matt Olson | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +135 |
| Sean Murphy | 0.5 -150 | 0.5 +115 |
Rays vs Braves RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Eddie Rosario | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
| Christian Bethancourt | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Jose Siri | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
| Matt Olson | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -190 |
| Sean Murphy | 0.5 +225 | 0.5 -300 |
Rays vs Braves Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Charlie Morton | 6.5 +100 | 6.5 -130 |
| Tyler Glasnow | 7.5 -135 | 7.5 +100 |
Braves Best Bets Today:
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 55 of their last 86 games (+17.95 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 25 of their last 29 games (+17.00 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 17 of their last 23 games (+13.90 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 21 of their last 29 games (+13.20 Units / 38% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Team Total Over in 21 of their last 28 games (+12.85 Units / 38% ROI)
Rays Best Bets Today:
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 32 of their last 46 games at home (+17.80 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Over in 55 of their last 90 games (+15.90 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Game Total Over in 29 of their last 44 games at home (+13.25 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Moneyline in 34 of their last 47 games at home (+13.15 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 31 of their last 47 games at home (+11.15 Units / 18% ROI)
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 44-42 against the Run Line (+2 Units / 1.98% ROI).
- 58-28 when betting on the Moneyline for +14.8 Units / 10.22% ROI
- 47-36 when betting on the total runs Over for +7.35 Units / 7.76% ROI
- 36-47 when betting on the total runs Under for -15.8 Units / -16.72% ROI
Rays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Rays have gone 48-42 against the Run Line (+6.75 Units / 6.37% ROI).
- 57-33 when betting on the Moneyline for +10.2 Units / 6.96% ROI
- 50-36 when betting on the total runs Over for +10.05 Units / 10.12% ROI
- 36-50 when betting on the total runs Under for -19.05 Units / -19.3% ROI
Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Charlie Morton has thrown his curveball 39% of the time (143/363) when he’s behind in the count this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 12% — 97th Percentile.
Charlie Morton has thrown his curveball 49% of the time (403/829) vs left-handed batters this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 20% — 100th Percentile.
Charlie Morton has thrown his curveball 40% of the time (457/1,134) in non-two strike counts this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 18% — 95th Percentile.
Charlie Morton has thrown his curveball 57% of the time (250/442) with two-strikes this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 95th Percentile.
Rays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Tyler Glasnow has a strikeout rate of 36% (56 SO in 154 PAs) this season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 34 total IP; League Avg: 22% — 99th Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of 39% (121/309) against Tyler Glasnow this season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 34 total IP; League Avg: 25% — 99th Percentile.
Tyler Glasnow has allowed a just .245 SLG vs right-handed batters (sixth best)– 94th Percentile and .627 vs left-handed batters over the last 30 days (seventh worst among qualified SPs)– 10th Percentile.
Tyler Glasnow has at least 6 strikeouts in each of his last seven games — Spencer Strider has the longest active streak at 17.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Rays
The Braves are 39-24 (.619) when allowing 2 or more home runs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .301.
The Braves are 18-9 (.667) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .315.
The Braves are 17-6 (.739) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Braves are 14-21 (.400) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .214.
Rays Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Rays are 14-12 (.538) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .315.
The Rays are 34-13 (.723) at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .519.
The Rays are 37-20 (.649) after a win this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .518.
The Rays are just 10-20 (.333) after a win as underdogs since last season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .417.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
Braves hitters have an OPS of .907 (789 PA’s) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .740.
Braves hitters are slugging .548 against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .417.
Braves hitters are slugging .463 since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .400.
Braves hitters have an OPS of .823 (2,427 PA’s) against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .723.
Rays Hitting Stats & Trends
Rays hitters are slugging .470 with bases empty this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .403.
Rays hitters have an OBP of .332 (3,398 PA’s) this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .320.
Rays hitters have 123 strikeouts in 354 PA’s (35%) in lefty-lefty matchups since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
The Rays have a winning percentage of 74% at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 52%.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
Braves pitchers have won 58% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Braves pitchers have won 55% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
The Braves pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 30% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Braves pitchers have won 42% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Rays Pitching Stats & Trends
Rays pitchers have walked 669 of 9,257 batters (7%) since last season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Rays pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 37% of their games at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 54%.
Rays pitchers have walked 145 of 2,240 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Rays pitchers this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Rays vs. Braves Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Jeffrey Springs (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Andrew Kittredge (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Drew Rasmussen (Rays): Flexor, D60
- Shane Baz (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Shane McClanahan (Rays): Back, D15
- Garrett Cleavinger (Rays): Knee, D60
- Josh Fleming (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Jesse Chavez (Braves): Shin, D15
- Dylan Lee (Braves): Shoulder, D60
- Max Fried (Braves): Forearm, D60
- Tyler Matzek (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Ehire Adrianza (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Kyle Wright (Braves): Shoulder, D60
- Huascar Ynoa (Braves): Elbow, D60
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