- The Rays are -125 favorites vs the Braves
- Braves starting pitcher: Bryce Elder
- Rays starting pitcher: Zachary Eflin
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The Atlanta Braves (+105) visit Tropicana Field to take on the Tampa Bay Rays (-125) on Sunday, July 9, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 1:40pm EDT in St. Petersburg.
The Rays are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+155).
The Braves vs Rays Over/Under is 10 total runs for the game.
This season, the Braves are 60-28 against the spread (ATS), while the Rays are 49-43 ATS.
Braves vs. Rays Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Braves | +1.5 -190 | O 10 -250 | +105 |
| Rays | -1.5 +155 | U 10 +195 | -125 |
Braves vs Rays Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Rays will win Sunday‘s MLB matchup with 54.2% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Braves and Rays and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Braves Player Prop Bets Today:
- Kevin Pillar has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 10 of his last 13 away games (+7.65 Units / 54% ROI)
- Kevin Pillar has hit the Total Bases Over in 11 of his last 13 away games (+7.50 Units / 34% ROI)
- Travis d’Arnaud has hit the RBIs Over in 5 of his last 6 games (+7.30 Units / 122% ROI)
- Bryce Elder has hit the Earned Runs Under in 13 of his last 17 games (+7.30 Units / 31% ROI)
- Kevin Pillar has hit the RBIs Over in 4 of his last 5 away games (+6.70 Units / 134% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rays players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Rays Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Zach Eflin has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 10 of his last 12 games (+8.75 Units / 66% ROI)
- Zach Eflin has hit the Strikeouts Over in 12 of his last 16 games (+7.55 Units / 40% ROI)
- Isaac Paredes has hit the Singles Under in 11 of his last 13 games at home (+7.45 Units / 33% ROI)
- Jose Siri has hit the Singles Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+5.95 Units / 33% ROI)
- Isaac Paredes has hit the Total Bases Under in 8 of his last 12 games at home (+5.80 Units / 44% ROI)
Rays vs Braves Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Eddie Rosario | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Christian Bethancourt | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Matt Olson | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
| Taylor Walls | 0.5 +725 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Yandy Diaz | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
Rays vs Braves Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Eddie Rosario | 0.5 -155 | 0.5 +115 |
| Christian Bethancourt | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +135 |
| Matt Olson | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Taylor Walls | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +130 |
| Yandy Diaz | 1.5 +175 | 1.5 -250 |
Rays vs Braves RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Eddie Rosario | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
| Christian Bethancourt | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -275 |
| Matt Olson | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -155 |
| Taylor Walls | 0.5 +225 | 0.5 -300 |
| Yandy Diaz | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
Rays vs Braves Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Elder | 4.5 -120 | 4.5 -110 |
| Zach Eflin | 5.5 -140 | 5.5 +105 |
Braves Best Bets Today:
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 27 of their last 31 games (+19.00 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 22 of their last 31 games (+13.25 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in 44 of their last 79 games (+8.80 Units / 10% ROI)
Rays Best Bets Today:
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Moneyline in 34 of their last 49 games at home (+11.05 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Game Total Over in 29 of their last 46 games at home (+11.00 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the Run Line in 27 of their last 49 games at home (+8.00 Units / 15% ROI)
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 45-43 against the Run Line (+2.05 Units / 1.99% ROI).
- 60-28 when betting on the Moneyline for +16.8 Units / 11.39% ROI
- 47-38 when betting on the total runs Over for +5.1 Units / 5.26% ROI
- 38-47 when betting on the total runs Under for -13.8 Units / -14.28% ROI
Rays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Rays have gone 49-43 against the Run Line (+6.5 Units / 5.97% ROI).
- 57-35 when betting on the Moneyline for +8.1 Units / 5.45% ROI
- 50-38 when betting on the total runs Over for +7.8 Units / 7.68% ROI
- 38-50 when betting on the total runs Under for -17.05 Units / -16.91% ROI
Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .164 (31-for-189) against Bryce Elder’s non-fastballs this season — 5th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .223 — 92nd Percentile.
Bryce Elder has located his fastballs down 48% of the time (380/789) this season — 2nd highest among in MLB; League Avg: 29% — 96th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 65% (96/148) against Bryce Elder this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 100th Percentile.
Bryce Elder has an ERA of 1.62 (44.1 IP) on the road this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 4.05 — 100th Percentile.
Rays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Zach Eflin has allowed an OBP of just .218 (188 PA’s) vs left-handed batters this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .316 — 100th Percentile.
Zach Eflin’s K:BB ratio is 7.4 (52/7) vs left-handed batters this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 2.7 — 100th Percentile.
Zach Eflin has walked 15 of 383 batters (4%) this season — tied for 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 96th Percentile.
Zach Eflin has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 75.1 MPH on pitches out of the zone since last season (105 balls in play) — tied for 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 99 total IP; League Avg: 80.6
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Rays
The Braves are 16-10 (.615) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .271.
The Braves are 17-6 (.739) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Braves are 18-9 (.667) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .315.
The Braves are 39-24 (.619) when allowing 2 or more home runs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .301.
Rays Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Rays are 23-8 (.742) after a home win this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .539.
The Rays are 34-14 (.708) at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .517.
The Rays are 46-2 (.958) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .896.
The Rays are 85-44 (.659) at home since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .527.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
Braves hitters are slugging .547 against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .419.
Braves hitters have an OPS of .905 (795 PA’s) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .742.
Braves hitters are slugging .502 at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .417.
Braves hitters are slugging .478 against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .406.
Rays Hitting Stats & Trends
The Rays are batting .271 against LHP this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .254.
Rays hitters have an OPS of .795 (696 PA’s) against LHP this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .742.
Rays hitters have put just 31% of their swings in play on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
Rays hitters are slugging .467 with bases empty this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .403.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
Braves pitchers have won 55% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Braves pitchers have won 58% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
The Braves pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 21% of their games on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
The Braves pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 31% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Rays Pitching Stats & Trends
Rays pitchers have walked 675 of 9,328 batters (7%) since last season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Rays pitchers this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Rays pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 39% of their games at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 54%.
The Rays pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in just 30% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Rays vs. Braves Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Jeffrey Springs (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Andrew Kittredge (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Drew Rasmussen (Rays): Flexor, D60
- Tyler Glasnow (Rays): Cramping, Day-to-Day
- Shane Baz (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Shane McClanahan (Rays): Back, D15
- Garrett Cleavinger (Rays): Knee, D60
- Josh Fleming (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Jesse Chavez (Braves): Shin, D15
- Dylan Lee (Braves): Shoulder, D60
- Max Fried (Braves): Forearm, D60
- Tyler Matzek (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Alex Minter (Braves): Chest, Day-to-Day
- Ehire Adrianza (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Kyle Wright (Braves): Shoulder, D60
- Huascar Ynoa (Braves): Elbow, D60
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