- The Rays are -140 favorites vs the Braves
- Braves starting pitcher: Ian Anderson, 9.81 ERA
- Rays starting pitcher: Jeffrey Springs, 0.00 ERA
- Watch the game on BSSUN
The Atlanta Braves (+115) visit Tropicana Field to take on the Tampa Bay Rays (-140) on Friday, March 10, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 1:05pm EST in St. Petersburg.
The Rays are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+140).
The Braves vs Rays Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
During Spring Training, the Braves are 2-4 against the spread (ATS), while the Rays are 8-2 ATS.
Braves vs. Rays Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Braves | +1.5 -165 | O 8.5 -105 | +115 |
| Rays | -1.5 +140 | U 8.5 -115 | -140 |
Braves vs Rays Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Rays will win Friday‘s Spring Training matchup with 54.8% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Braves and Rays and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Braves Player Prop Bets Today:
- Travis Demeritte has hit the Runs Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 43% ROI)
- Travis Demeritte has hit the Hits Under in 5 of his last 6 games (+4.00 Units / 56% ROI)
- Adam Duvall has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 6 of his last 8 away games (+3.60 Units / 38% ROI)
- Travis Demeritte has hit the Total Bases Under in 4 of his last 5 games (+3.00 Units / 54% ROI)
- Travis Demeritte has hit the Singles Under in 5 of his last 6 games (+2.70 Units / 19% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rays players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Rays Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- David Peralta has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 6 of his last 7 games at home (+4.90 Units / 66% ROI)
- Francisco Mejia has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 6 of his last 7 games (+4.90 Units / 62% ROI)
- Rene Pinto has hit the Singles Over in 3 of his last 6 games at home (+1.90 Units / 32% ROI)
- Kevin Kiermaier has hit the RBIs Over in 2 of his last 5 games (+0.85 Units / 17% ROI)
Braves Best Bets Today:
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 86 of their last 140 games (+23.04 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 79 of their last 116 games (+22.00 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 77 of their last 133 games (+21.60 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in 34 of their last 57 away games (+12.55 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 35 of their last 57 away games (+12.15 Units / 19% ROI)
Rays Best Bets Today:
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Moneyline in 40 of their last 61 games at home (+13.30 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 29 of their last 53 games (+11.85 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Under in 20 of their last 28 games (+11.60 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Game Total Under in 21 of their last 34 games (+7.45 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the Run Line in 35 of their last 61 games (+7.25 Units / 9% ROI)
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 2-6 against the Run Line (-4.95 Units / -52.94% ROI).
- 2-4 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.45 Units / -21.3% ROI
- 5-3 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.75 Units / 19.66% ROI
- 3-5 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.4 Units / -27.43% ROI
Rays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Rays have gone 8-2 against the Run Line (+7.35 Units / 58.1% ROI).
- 5-4 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.5 Units / 4.24% ROI
- 6-4 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.7 Units / 15.6% ROI
- 4-6 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.6 Units / -23.42% ROI
Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Ian Anderson allowed an OBP of .476 (103 PA’s) when going through the lineup the third time in a game last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .320 — 0 Percentile.
Ian Anderson allowed a slugging percentage of .682 (60 Total Bases / 88 ABs) when going through the lineup the third time in a game last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .437 — first Percentile.
Ian Anderson has a strike rate of just 61% (2,542/4,180) since the start of the 2021 season — tied for 6th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 65% — fourth Percentile.
Ian Anderson allowed an OPS of 1.158 (103 PA’s) when going through the lineup the third time in a game last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .757 — 0 Percentile.
Rays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jeffrey Springs threw his changeup 44% of the time (725/1,656) against right-handed batters last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total CH; League Avg: 13% — 100th Percentile.
Jeffrey Springs threw his changeup 42% of the time (180/430) with runners in scoring position last season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total CH; League Avg: 16% — 98th Percentile.
Jeffrey Springs threw his changeup 38% of the time (159/415) when behind in the count last season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total CH; League Avg: 16% — 97th Percentile.
Jeffrey Springs threw his changeup 32% of the time (480/1,485) in non-two strike counts last season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total CH; League Avg: 15% — 98th Percentile.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Rays
The Braves are 11-3 (.786) when tied entering the 7th inning last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Braves are 36-5 (.878) when scoring in the first inning last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .664.
The Braves are 59-12 (.831) when hitting 2 or more home runs last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .707.
The Braves are 9-4 (.692) when tied entering the 8th inning last season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Rays Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Rays are 36-10 (.783) when scoring in the first inning last season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .664.
The Rays are 54-8 (.871) when scoring 5 or more runs last season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .805.
The Rays are just 72-11 (.867) when leading entering the 8th inning last season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .915.
The Rays are 40-11 (.784) when totaling 10 or more hits last season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .727.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
Braves hitters are slugging .517 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since the start of the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .449.
Braves hitters are slugging .624 on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .571.
Braves hitters slugged .307 with two-strikes last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .263.
Braves hitters slugged .656 on the first pitch of at-bats last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .560.
Rays Hitting Stats & Trends
Rays hitters put 39% of their swings in play against LHP last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
The Rays batted just .201 with runners on base over the last 30 days of the regular season (29 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Rays hitters have grounded into 205 double plays in 2,580 opportunities (8%) since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
Rays hitters struck out just 29 times in 177 PA’s (16%) against LHP over the last 30 days of the regular season (17 games) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
Braves pitchers had a strikeout rate of 26% last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Opponents had a miss rate of 28% against Braves pitchers last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Braves pitchers had a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
The Braves allowed 1.02 runs per game (165/162) in late innings last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 1.28.
Rays Pitching Stats & Trends
Rays pitchers have walked 820 of 11,928 batters (7%) since the start of the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Rays pitchers have walked 988 of 14,140 batters (7%) since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Rays pitchers have walked 206 of 3,433 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Rays pitchers have walked 168 of 2,905 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Rays vs. Braves Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Andrew Kittredge (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Shane Baz (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Atlanta Braves – No Injuries Reported
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