- The Braves (64-46) are -155 favorites vs the Red Sox (54-56)
- Braves starting pitcher: Charles Morton (5-5), 4.08 ERA
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Richard Hill (4-5), 4.52 ERA
- Watch the game on TBS
The Atlanta Braves (-155) visit Fenway Park to take on the Boston Red Sox (+125) on Tuesday, August 9, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Boston.
The Braves are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+100).
The Braves vs Red Sox Over/Under is 9.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Braves are 64-46 against the spread (ATS), while the Red Sox are 56-54 ATS.
Braves vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Braves | -1.5 +100 | O 9.5 -110 | -155 |
| Red Sox | +1.5 -120 | U 9.5 -110 | +125 |
Braves vs Red Sox Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Tuesday‘s matchup with 60.2% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Braves and Red Sox and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Braves Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Austin Riley has hit the Hits Over in 43 of his last 67 games (+17.90 Units / 16% ROI)
- Matt Olson has hit the Singles Under in 67 of his last 98 games (+17.60 Units / 11% ROI)
- Dansby Swanson has hit the Singles Over in 57 of his last 98 games (+16.65 Units / 15% ROI)
- Dansby Swanson has hit the Hits Over in 56 of his last 96 games (+13.75 Units / 10% ROI)
- Marcell Ozuna has hit the RBIs Under in 17 of his last 19 away games (+12.50 Units / 31% ROI)
Best Red Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Alex Verdugo has hit the Runs Under in 24 of his last 32 games (+10.55 Units / 17% ROI)
- Alex Verdugo has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 25 games (+10.10 Units / 37% ROI)
- Trevor Story has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 13 games at home (+9.95 Units / 35% ROI)
- Bobby Dalbec has hit the Singles Over in 12 of his last 21 games at home (+9.60 Units / 46% ROI)
- Christian Arroyo has hit the Singles Over in 12 of his last 15 games (+9.20 Units / 55% ROI)
Red Sox vs Braves Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 +775 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Christian Arroyo | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Eric Hosmer | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -2000 |
| J.D. Martinez | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -900 |
| Jarren Duran | 0.5 +850 | 0.5 -5000 |
Red Sox vs Braves Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +165 |
| Christian Arroyo | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +135 |
| Eric Hosmer | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +145 |
| J.D. Martinez | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +145 |
| Jarren Duran | 0.5 -150 | 0.5 +105 |
Red Sox vs Braves RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Christian Arroyo | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -300 |
| Eric Hosmer | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -300 |
| J.D. Martinez | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -250 |
| Jarren Duran | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -400 |
Red Sox vs Braves Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Rich Hill | 4.5 +115 | 4.5 -165 |
| Charlie Morton | 5.5 -130 | 5.5 -110 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Braves Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 54 of their last 84 games (+18.07 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 41 of their last 60 games (+12.05 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in 17 of their last 25 away games (+10.40 Units / 38% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 17 of their last 25 away games (+8.70 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 47 of their last 77 games (+3.00 Units / 2% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Red Sox: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 24 of their last 39 games at home (+7.80 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 41 of their last 81 games (+6.45 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 48 of their last 90 games (+4.75 Units / 5% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 39 of their last 76 games (+4.45 Units / 5% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 44 of their last 81 games (+3.90 Units / 4% ROI)
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 55-55 against the Run Line (-7.75 Units / -5.5% ROI).
- 64-46 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.65 Units / -0.36% ROI
- 56-49 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.3 Units / 1.9% ROI
- 49-56 when betting on the total runs Under for -12.7 Units / -10.48% ROI
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 56-54 against the Run Line (+1.9 Units / 1.39% ROI).
- 54-56 when betting on the Moneyline for -8.5 Units / -6.2% ROI
- 49-52 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.3 Units / -6.04% ROI
- 52-49 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.5 Units / -1.23% ROI
Charles Morton: Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Charlie Morton has a first-pitch strike rate of just 57% (279/493) this season — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 63% — fifth Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of 39% (20/52) against Charlie Morton on elevated fastballs this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — first Percentile.
Charlie Morton has thrown his curveball 43% of the time (1,048/2,418) vs left-handed batters since the start of last season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 22% — 95th Percentile.
Charlie Morton has walked 15 of 123 batters (12%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — third Percentile.
Richard Hill: Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Rich Hill has thrown his curveball 42% of the time (1,107/2,615) in non-two strike counts since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 135 total CB; League Avg: 15% — 100th Percentile.
Rich Hill has thrown his curveball 45% of the time (117/259) when he’s behind in the count this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 54 total CB; League Avg: 10% — 100th Percentile.
Rich Hill has thrown his curveball 52% of the time (614/1,192) this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 54 total CB; League Avg: 17% — 100th Percentile.
Rich Hill has thrown his curveball 48% of the time (493/1,016) against right-handed batters this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 54 total CB; League Avg: 15% — 100th Percentile.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Braves are 7-2 (.778) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Braves are 28-3 (.903) when scoring in the first inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .663.
The Braves are 27-24 (.529) on the road this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .473.
The Braves are 28-7 (.800) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .717.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Red Sox are just 1-44 (.022) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .087.
The Red Sox are just 2-42 (.045) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .114.
The Red Sox are just 44-8 (.846) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .886.
The Red Sox are just 5-7 (.417) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
Braves hitters are slugging .493 on pitches 95 mph or greater this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .390.
Braves hitters are slugging .669 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .561.
Braves hitters have missed on 29% of swings this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Braves hitters are slugging .440 against RHP since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .404.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
The Red Sox are batting .274 at home since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.
The Red Sox are batting .262 against LHP this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .244.
26% of Red Sox hitters strikeouts have come on 95+ MPH fastballs this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 21%.
The Red Sox are batting .180 with two-strikes since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .168.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Braves pitchers have picked-off 9 runners from first base this season — best in MLB.
Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 30% in close and late situations this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 28% when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
The Red Sox pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 39% of their games on the road since the start of last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Red Sox pitchers have a strikeout rate of 27% in close and late situations since the start of last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
The Red Sox pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 35% of their games on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Red Sox pitchers have won 38% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home since the start of last season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Red Sox vs. Braves Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Eric Hosmer (Red Sox): Neck, Day-to-Day
- James Paxton (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Christopher Sale (Red Sox): Finger, D15
- Michael Wacha (Red Sox): Shoulder, D15
- Enrique Hernández (Red Sox): Hip, D60
- Matthew Strahm (Red Sox): Wrist, D15
- Brayan Bello (Red Sox): Groin, D15
- Trevor Story (Red Sox): Hand, D10
- Tyler Danish (Red Sox): Elbow, D15
- Robert Refsnyder (Red Sox): Knee, D10
- Josh Taylor (Red Sox): Back, D60
- Ronald Acuña Jr. (Braves): Lower body, Day-to-Day
- Michael Ford (Braves): Neck, D10
- Ozhanio Albies (Braves): Foot, D60
- Darren O’Day (Braves): Calf, D15
- Kirby Yates (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Michael Soroka (Braves): Achilles, D60
- Manuel Piña (Braves): Wrist, D60
- Luke Jackson (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Adam Duvall (Braves): Wrist, D10
- Travis d’Arnaud (Braves): Leg, Day-to-Day
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