- The Braves are -160 favorites vs the Red Sox
- Braves starting pitcher: Spencer Strider
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Brayan Bello
- Watch the game on ESPN
The Atlanta Braves (-160) visit Fenway Park to take on the Boston Red Sox (+135) on Wednesday, July 26, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Boston.
The Braves are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-105).
The Braves vs Red Sox Over/Under is 10 total runs for the game.
This season, the Braves are 64-35 against the spread (ATS), while the Red Sox are 54-47 ATS.
Braves vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Braves | -1.5 -105 | O 10 -115 | -160 |
| Red Sox | +1.5 -115 | U 10 -105 | +135 |
Braves vs Red Sox Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Wednesday‘s MLB matchup with 71.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Braves and Red Sox and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Braves Player Prop Bets Today:
- Ozzie Albies has hit the Runs Over in 29 of his last 41 games (+15.75 Units / 32% ROI)
- Michael Harris II has hit the Hits Over in 31 of his last 39 games (+13.30 Units / 15% ROI)
- Ronald Acuna Jr. has hit the RBIs Under in 15 of his last 17 games (+11.35 Units / 34% ROI)
- Marcell Ozuna has hit the Total Bases Under in 12 of his last 13 games (+11.15 Units / 57% ROI)
- Marcell Ozuna has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 23 away games (+11.05 Units / 31% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Justin Turner has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 34 of his last 47 games (+17.35 Units / 28% ROI)
- Justin Turner has hit the Total Bases Over in 27 of his last 44 games (+13.85 Units / 31% ROI)
- Triston Casas has hit the Singles Over in 19 of his last 31 games (+12.75 Units / 41% ROI)
- Triston Casas has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 24 games (+12.30 Units / 27% ROI)
- Justin Turner has hit the RBIs Over in 13 of his last 20 games at home (+12.10 Units / 61% ROI)
Red Sox vs Braves Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Eddie Rosario | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Connor Wong | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Rafael Devers | 0.5 +340 | 0.5 -600 |
| Masataka Yoshida | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Matt Olson | 0.5 +270 | 0.5 -450 |
Red Sox vs Braves Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Eddie Rosario | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Connor Wong | 0.5 -115 | 0.5 -115 |
| Rafael Devers | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Masataka Yoshida | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Matt Olson | 1.5 +190 | 1.5 -250 |
Red Sox vs Braves RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Eddie Rosario | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Connor Wong | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -375 |
| Rafael Devers | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Masataka Yoshida | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -250 |
| Matt Olson | 0.5 +105 | 0.5 -135 |
Red Sox vs Braves Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Spencer Strider | 8.5 +100 | 8.5 -130 |
| Brayan Bello | 4.5 -115 | 4.5 -115 |
Braves Best Bets Today:
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 58 of their last 99 games (+15.65 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 61 of their last 99 games (+14.65 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Team Total Over in 28 of their last 41 games (+12.85 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 31 of their last 42 games (+10.15 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 26 of their last 42 games (+8.85 Units / 18% ROI)
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 21 of their last 33 games (+10.00 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 49 of their last 88 games (+9.25 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 33 of their last 57 games (+7.85 Units / 13% ROI)
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 49-50 against the Run Line (-2.35 Units / -2.02% ROI).
- 64-35 when betting on the Moneyline for +7.95 Units / 4.74% ROI
- 52-44 when betting on the total runs Over for +3.7 Units / 3.39% ROI
- 44-52 when betting on the total runs Under for -13.2 Units / -12.13% ROI
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 54-47 against the Run Line (+2.05 Units / 1.57% ROI).
- 54-47 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.5 Units / 3.64% ROI
- 52-46 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.8 Units / 0.72% ROI
- 46-52 when betting on the total runs Under for -11.7 Units / -10.53% ROI
Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 40% (433/1,073) against Spencer Strider this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 100th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of 45% (226/507) against Spencer Strider this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 100th Percentile.
Spencer Strider has struck out 39% (97/247) of left-handed batters he faced this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.
Spencer Strider has a strikeout rate of 40% (189 SO in 476 PAs) this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 16% (45/274) against Brayan Bello this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 39 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 99th Percentile.
Left-handed hitters have a line drive rate of just 16% (36/222) against Brayan Bello since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 104 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 99th Percentile.
Left-handed hitters have a line drive rate of just 12% (18/145) against Brayan Bello this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 39 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 60% (77/129) against Brayan Bello this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 39 total IP; League Avg: 42% — 98th Percentile.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Braves are 40-27 (.597) when allowing 2 or more home runs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .303.
The Braves are 16-15 (.516) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .274.
The Braves are 19-12 (.613) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .317.
The Braves are 17-7 (.708) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Red Sox are 14-22 (.389) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .274.
The Red Sox are 40-2 (.952) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .853.
The Red Sox are just 9-17 (.346) when tied entering the 8th inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Red Sox are 44-2 (.957) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .896.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
Braves hitters are slugging .536 against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .415.
Braves hitters have an OPS of .888 (829 PA’s) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .738.
Braves hitters are slugging .461 since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .401.
Braves hitters are slugging .456 against RHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .400.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
Red Sox hitters have an OBP of .401 (424 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .328.
The Red Sox are batting .280 at home since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .248.
The Red Sox are batting .341 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .264.
Red Sox hitters have an OBP of .362 (1,120 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .326.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
The Braves pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 33% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
The Braves pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 23% of their games on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Braves pitchers have won 47% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Braves pitchers have won 50% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Red Sox pitchers have walked 290 of 3,799 batters (8%) this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Red Sox pitchers have walked 62 of 893 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Red Sox pitchers have allowed an exit velocity over 110 MPH 112 times since last season — tied for 3rd most in MLB.
The Red Sox have allowed 1.16 runs per game (117/101) in late innings this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 1.36.
Red Sox vs. Braves Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Kaleb Ort (Red Sox): Elbow, D15
- Zachery Kelly (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Reese McGuire (Red Sox): Oblique, D10
- Corey Kluber (Red Sox): Shoulder, D15
- Tanner Houck (Red Sox): Face, D15
- Trevor Story (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Gregory Mills (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Garrett Whitlock (Red Sox): Elbow, D15
- Christopher Sale (Red Sox): Shoulder, D60
- Raúl Mondesi (Red Sox): Knee, D60
- Jesse Chavez (Braves): Shin, D60
- Dylan Lee (Braves): Shoulder, D60
- Max Fried (Braves): Forearm, D60
- Samuel Hilliard (Braves): Heel, D10
- Tyler Matzek (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Alex Minter (Braves): Shoulder, D15
- Ehire Adrianza (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Kyle Wright (Braves): Shoulder, D60
- Kolby Allard (Braves): Shoulder, D60
- Nick Anderson (Braves): Shoulder, D60
- Huascar Ynoa (Braves): Elbow, D60
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