- The Braves are -102 favorites vs the Red Sox
- Braves vs Red Sox Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Braves / Red Sox TV Channel: FDSO | FDSE | NESN | MLBN
The Atlanta Braves (-102) visit Fenway Park to take on the Boston Red Sox (-118) on Friday, May 16, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Boston, MA, MA.
This season, the Braves are 22-22 against the spread (ATS), while the Red Sox are 23-22 ATS.
Braves vs Red Sox Starting Pitchers Today:
- Braves starting pitcher: Chris Sale 1-3, 3.97 ERA
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Garrett Crochet 4-2, 1.94 ERA
Braves vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Braves | -1.5 +170 | O 8 -115 | -102 |
| Red Sox | +1.5 -210 | U 8 -105 | -118 |
Braves vs Red Sox Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Red Sox will win Friday‘s MLB game with 53.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Braves Player Prop Bets Today:
- Michael Harris II has hit the Runs Under in 14 of his last 15 games (+12.25 Units / 46% ROI)
- Michael Harris II has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 20 away games (+10.70 Units / 42% ROI)
- Ozzie Albies has hit the Total Bases Under in 18 of his last 25 games (+10.65 Units / 31% ROI)
- Austin Riley has hit the Singles Over in 17 of his last 25 games (+9.80 Units / 36% ROI)
- Chris Sale has hit the Pitching Outs Under in 17 of his last 25 games (+9.75 Units / 30% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Rob Refsnyder has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 5 games (+13.00 Units / 260% ROI)
- Nick Sogard has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 12 of his last 15 games (+9.50 Units / 44% ROI)
- Alex Bregman has hit the Runs Over in 13 of his last 20 games at home (+7.65 Units / 37% ROI)
- Nick Sogard has hit the Singles Over in 10 of his last 15 games (+7.55 Units / 50% ROI)
- Trevor Story has hit the Total Bases Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+7.35 Units / 54% ROI)
Braves Best Bets Today:
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 14 of their last 17 games (+11.80 Units / 63% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 15 of their last 20 away games (+8.85 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Team Total Under in 12 of their last 15 games (+8.80 Units / 52% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 5 of their last 6 games (+3.55 Units / 48% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.40 Units / 17% ROI)
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 20 of their last 27 games (+13.35 Units / 42% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 22 of their last 40 games (+11.10 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 12 of their last 18 games at home (+5.80 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 6 of their last 8 games (+5.45 Units / 55% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 17 of their last 28 games (+4.93 Units / 16% ROI)
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Braves are 19-25 against the Run Line (-6.52 Units / -12.56% ROI).
- 22-22 when betting on the Moneyline for -9.03 Units / -13.42% ROI
- 16-24 when betting on the total runs Over for -10.4 Units / -21.31% ROI
- 24-16 when betting on the total runs Under for +6.55 Units / 13.63% ROI
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Red Sox are 23-22 against the Run Line (+2.8 Units / 5% ROI).
- 22-23 when betting on the Moneyline for -8.46 Units / -13.29% ROI
- 22-22 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.92 Units / -3.87% ROI
- 22-22 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.8 Units / -3.65% ROI
Red Sox vs Braves Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Austin Riley (ATL) | 0.5 +333 | 0.5 -450 |
| Marcell Ozuna (ATL) | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -500 |
| Alex Bregman (BOS) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
| Matt Olson (ATL) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
| Sean Murphy (ATL) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
Red Sox vs Braves Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jarren Duran (BOS) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +195 |
| Alex Bregman (BOS) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +175 |
| Austin Riley (ATL) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +165 |
| Rob Refsnyder (BOS) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Alex Verdugo (ATL) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
Red Sox vs Braves RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Austin Riley (ATL) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Alex Bregman (BOS) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Marcell Ozuna (ATL) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -220 |
| Matt Olson (ATL) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -235 |
| Ozzie Albies (ATL) | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
Red Sox vs Braves Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Garrett Crochet (BOS) | 6.5 -150 | 6.5 +115 |
| Chris Sale (ATL) | 7.5 -130 | 7.5 +100 |
Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
10 of Chris Sale’s breaking pitch strikeouts are backdoor this season — most among among NL Starters; League Avg: nan — 100th Percentile.
10 of Chris Sale’s breaking pitch strikeouts are backdoor this season — most among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: nan — 100th Percentile.
42 of Chris Sale’s breaking pitch strikeouts are backdoor since last season — most among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: nan — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of 42% (24/57) against Chris Sale on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best among among NL Starters; League Avg: 26% — 100th Percentile.
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Garrett Crochet has allowed a slugging percentage of just .256 (52 Total Bases / 203 ABs) this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .387 — 97th Percentile.
Garrett Crochet had a strikeout rate of 41% (50/123) with runners in scoring position in the 2024 season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 22% — 100th Percentile.
Garrett Crochet has a strikeout rate of 38% (135 SO in 357 PAs) when going through the lineup the first time in a game since last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 81 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 100th Percentile.
Garrett Crochet had a strikeout rate of 35% (209/595) in the 2024 season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 22% — 100th Percentile.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Braves are just 14-4 (.778) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .879.
The Braves are 4-17 (.190) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .085.
The Braves are 5-15 (.250) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .119.
The Braves are 113-71 (.614) at home since the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .526.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Red Sox are just 5-74 (.063) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .138.
The Red Sox are just 41-157 (.207) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .274.
The Red Sox were just 5-58 (.079) when trailing entering the 7th inning in the 2024 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .143.
The Red Sox were just 17-33 (.340) vs top 10 scoring offenses in the 2024 season They play the Blue Jays (23rd best runs scored) today.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
Braves hitters had an OBP of .400 (732 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in 2023 — best in MLB; League Avg: .330.
Braves hitters slugged .495 against RHP in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .413.
The Braves batted .326 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in 2023 — best in MLB; League Avg: .267.
Braves hitters had an OPS of .837 (4,824 PA’s) against RHP in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .732.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
Red Sox hitters struck out 506 times in 1,816 PA’s (28%) against LHP in the 2024 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Red Sox hitters have put just 29% of their swings in play on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
The Red Sox are batting .379 in hitter’s counts since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .335.
Red Sox hitters have struck out in 27% of it’s PA’s against LHP since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
Batters facing the Braves pitchers have struck out in the zone 42% of the time this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%. this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Batters facing the Braves pitchers have struck out in the zone 45% of the time since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 49%. since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 49%.
Batters facing the Braves pitchers have struck out in the zone 46% of the time since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%. since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Braves pitchers won 46% of games in which they allowed their opponent to score in three different innings in the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 44% against Red Sox pitchers since the 2023 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Red Sox pitchers have walked 7% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 24% against Red Sox pitchers since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents had a miss rate of just 24% against Red Sox pitchers in the 2024 season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
More MLB Reading:
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