- The Reds are -170 favorites vs the Braves
- Braves vs Reds Over / Under today: 9.5 Runs
- Braves / Reds TV Channel: FDOH | FDSO | FDSE | MLBN
The Atlanta Braves (+145) visit Great American Ball Park to take on the Cincinnati Reds (-175) on Thursday, July 31, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Cincinnati, OH, OH.
This season, the Braves are 45-62 against the spread (ATS), while the Reds are 59-49 ATS.
Braves vs Reds Starting Pitchers Today:
- Braves starting pitcher: Carlos Carrasco 2-2, 5.91 ERA
- Reds starting pitcher: Andrew Abbott 8-1, 2.09 ERA
Braves vs. Reds Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Braves | +1.5 -135 | O 9.5 -115 | +145 |
| Reds | -1.5 +110 | U 9.5 -105 | -175 |
Braves vs Reds Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Reds will win Thursday‘s MLB game with 59.4% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Braves Player Prop Bets Today:
- Michael Harris II has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 6 games (+8.30 Units / 138% ROI)
- Austin Riley has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 15 away games (+8.20 Units / 33% ROI)
- Austin Riley has hit the Runs Under in 17 of his last 25 games (+7.35 Units / 22% ROI)
- Ozzie Albies has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 17 of his last 25 games (+7.35 Units / 24% ROI)
- Austin Riley has hit the Singles Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+6.95 Units / 65% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Reds Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Matt McLain has hit the RBIs Under in 17 of his last 20 games at home (+10.75 Units / 24% ROI)
- Andrew Abbott has hit the Earned Runs Under in 16 of his last 20 games (+10.60 Units / 41% ROI)
- Elly De La Cruz has hit the Total Bases Over in 13 of his last 20 games at home (+7.00 Units / 32% ROI)
- Matt McLain has hit the Runs Over in 16 of his last 25 games at home (+7.00 Units / 24% ROI)
- Matt McLain has hit the Singles Over in 15 of his last 25 games at home (+6.45 Units / 24% ROI)
Braves Best Bets Today:
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in 13 of their last 18 games (+9.80 Units / 49% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 19 of their last 30 games (+6.45 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Team Total Under in 44 of their last 78 games (+5.20 Units / 6% ROI)
Reds Best Bets Today:
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 54 of their last 86 games (+22.10 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 23 of their last 35 games at home (+8.85 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 21 of their last 35 games at home (+8.30 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 13 of their last 21 games (+4.35 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 54 of their last 99 games (+3.75 Units / 3% ROI)
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Braves are 42-63 against the Run Line (-23.02 Units / -18.35% ROI).
- 45-62 when betting on the Moneyline for -42.63 Units / -26.38% ROI
- 47-53 when betting on the total runs Over for -11.3 Units / -9.52% ROI
- 53-47 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.7 Units / 1.45% ROI
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Reds are 59-49 against the Run Line (+2.97 Units / 2.04% ROI).
- 57-52 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.2 Units / 0.9% ROI
- 41-64 when betting on the total runs Over for -28.64 Units / -24.01% ROI
- 64-41 when betting on the total runs Under for +19.05 Units / 15.79% ROI
Reds vs Braves Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Austin Riley (ATL) | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -275 |
| Matt Olson (ATL) | 0.5 +225 | 0.5 -285 |
| Elly De La Cruz (CIN) | 0.5 +290 | 0.5 -375 |
| Will Benson (CIN) | 0.5 +290 | 0.5 -375 |
| Sean Murphy (ATL) | 0.5 +310 | 0.5 -400 |
Reds vs Braves Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jurickson Profar (ATL) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Ozzie Albies (ATL) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +175 |
| Gavin Lux (CIN) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Tyler Stephenson (CIN) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +165 |
| Matt Olson (ATL) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +170 |
Reds vs Braves RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Austin Hays (CIN) | 0.5 +100 | 0.5 -130 |
| Austin Riley (ATL) | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -155 |
| Elly De La Cruz (CIN) | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -165 |
| Matt Olson (ATL) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Tyler Stephenson (CIN) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -190 |
Reds vs Braves Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andrew Abbott (CIN) | 4.5 -155 | 4.5 +120 |
| Carlos Carrasco (NYY) | 3.5 -135 | 3.5 +105 |
Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
No Matchup notes for this Game
Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .091 (6-for-66) against Andrew Abbott’s elevated fastball this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 42 total IP; League Avg: .214 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents had a Hard-Hit Rate of just 15% (13/85) against Andrew Abbott on sliders in the 2024 season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 34% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a Hard-Hit Rate of just 17% (20/115) against Andrew Abbott’s slider since last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 107 total IP; League Avg: 35% — 100th Percentile.
Andrew Abbott has located his fastball away 55% of the time (432/787) this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 42 total IP; League Avg: 42% — 98th Percentile.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Braves are just 4-29 (.121) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .289.
The Braves are just 35-7 (.833) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .911.
The Braves are just 4-10 (.286) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Braves are just 11-60 (.155) when allowing 2 or more home runs since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .289.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Reds are just 9-23 (.281) when tied entering the 8th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Reds are just 17-34 (.333) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Reds are just 9-101 (.082) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .134.
The Reds are 26-6 (.812) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .711.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
Braves hitters are slugging .976 on the first pitch of at-bats over the last 14 days — best in MLB; League Avg: .590.
The Braves are just 3-16 (-67.5% ROI) when slight moneyline underdogs (+101 to +149) this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
The Braves are just 5-20 (-60.4% ROI) when underdogs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 45%.
The Braves batted .326 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in 2023 — best in MLB; League Avg: .267.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
The Reds are batting just .218 against LHP this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .240.
The Reds are batting just .223 against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .243.
Reds hitters are slugging just .344 against LHP this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .386.
Reds hitters have an OPS of just .642 (1,041 PA’s) against LHP this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .694.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
Batters facing the Braves pitchers have struck out on pitches in the zone 42% of the time this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%. this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Braves pitchers since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Braves pitchers have walked 15% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the past seven days (6 games) — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Braves pitchers since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Reds pitchers since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Batters facing the Reds pitchers have struck out on pitches in the zone 53% of the time this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%. this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Reds pitchers since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Reds pitchers this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
More MLB Reading:
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The content provided in this blog is intended for entertainment purposes only. All views and opinions expressed are the authors and reflect their individual perspectives on sports, betting, and related topics. This content should not be considered professional betting advice or the official views of BetMGM LLC. Please gamble responsibly. If you or someone you know is experiencing issues related to gambling, seek help from a licensed health professional. This blog is not liable for any losses, damages, or consequences resulting from betting activities.
