- The Braves are -150 favorites vs the Reds
- Braves starting pitcher: AJ Smith-Shawver
- Reds starting pitcher: Luke Weaver
- Watch the game on BSOH
The Atlanta Braves (-150) visit Great American Ball Park to take on the Cincinnati Reds (+125) on Friday, June 23, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Cincinnati.
The Braves are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+100).
The Braves vs Reds Over/Under is 11 total runs for the game.
This season, the Braves are 48-26 against the spread (ATS), while the Reds are 46-29 ATS.
Braves vs. Reds Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Braves | -1.5 +100 | O 11 -105 | -150 |
| Reds | +1.5 -120 | U 11 -115 | +125 |
Braves vs Reds Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Friday‘s MLB matchup with 72.5% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Braves and Reds and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Braves Player Prop Bets Today:
- Michael Harris II has hit the Runs Under in 31 of his last 40 games (+15.65 Units / 23% ROI)
- Michael Harris II has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 34 of his last 50 games (+14.40 Units / 23% ROI)
- Ronald Acuna Jr. has hit the RBIs Over in 13 of his last 20 away games (+12.55 Units / 63% ROI)
- Orlando Arcia has hit the Singles Over in 20 of his last 28 games (+12.10 Units / 39% ROI)
- Michael Harris II has hit the Total Bases Under in 26 of his last 38 games (+11.70 Units / 19% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Reds Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Matt McLain has hit the Hits Over in 24 of his last 28 games (+14.35 Units / 23% ROI)
- Jonathan India has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 23 games at home (+13.25 Units / 25% ROI)
- Matt McLain has hit the Singles Over in 19 of his last 25 games (+13.15 Units / 48% ROI)
- Jonathan India has hit the Runs Over in 27 of his last 44 games (+12.80 Units / 28% ROI)
- Spencer Steer has hit the Hits Over in 26 of his last 34 games (+11.70 Units / 17% ROI)
Reds vs Braves Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Eddie Rosario | 0.5 +340 | 0.5 -600 |
| TJ Friedl | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Tyler Stephenson | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Jonathan India | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -900 |
| Elly De La Cruz | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -650 |
Reds vs Braves Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Eddie Rosario | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| TJ Friedl | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Tyler Stephenson | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +140 |
| Jonathan India | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Elly De La Cruz | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
Reds vs Braves RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Eddie Rosario | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -200 |
| TJ Friedl | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -300 |
| Tyler Stephenson | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Jonathan India | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Elly De La Cruz | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
Reds vs Braves Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| AJ Smith-Shawver | 4.5 -130 | 4.5 +100 |
| Luke Weaver | 3.5 -140 | 3.5 +105 |
Braves Best Bets Today:
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 46 of their last 74 games (+13.00 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in 38 of their last 65 games (+11.70 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 15 of their last 17 games (+9.90 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 13 of their last 17 games (+8.90 Units / 41% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Team Total Over in 12 of their last 16 games (+7.50 Units / 39% ROI)
Reds Best Bets Today:
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 33 of their last 53 games (+19.95 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 46 of their last 74 games (+15.75 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 26 of their last 38 games at home (+14.55 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Over in 20 of their last 29 games (+10.05 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Over in 39 of their last 68 games (+7.60 Units / 10% ROI)
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 36-38 against the Run Line (-2.3 Units / -2.6% ROI).
- 48-26 when betting on the Moneyline for +7.7 Units / 6.2% ROI
- 41-30 when betting on the total runs Over for +8 Units / 9.83% ROI
- 30-41 when betting on the total runs Under for -15.35 Units / -18.83% ROI
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Reds have gone 46-29 against the Run Line (+14.75 Units / 15.47% ROI).
- 40-35 when betting on the Moneyline for +12.55 Units / 15.18% ROI
- 42-33 when betting on the total runs Over for +6.35 Units / 7.76% ROI
- 33-42 when betting on the total runs Under for -13.2 Units / -15.87% ROI
Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
AJ Smith-Shawver has allowed an OBP of just .250 (52 PA’s) over the last 30 days (3 games) — tied for 8th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 9 total IP; League Avg: .313 — 95th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .188 (9-for-48) against AJ Smith-Shawver over the last 30 days (3 games) — 12th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 9 total IP; League Avg: .248 — 92nd Percentile.
AJ Smith-Shawver has an ERA of 2.03 (13.1 IP)over the last 30 days (3 games) — 10th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 9 total IP; League Avg: 4.24 — 94th Percentile.
AJ Smith-Shawver has a strike rate of just 60% (135/224) over the last 30 days (3 games) — tied for 13th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 9 total IP; League Avg: 64% — ninth Percentile.
Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Luke Weaver has allowed a slugging percentage of .590 (82 Total Bases / 139 ABs) against right-handed batters this season — 5th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 29 total IP; League Avg: .420 — third Percentile.
Luke Weaver has allowed an OPS of .946 (149 PA’s) against right-handed batters this season — 6th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 29 total IP; League Avg: .730 — fifth Percentile.
Luke Weaver has allowed a slugging percentage of .612 (41 Total Bases / 67 ABs) versus the bottom of the order this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 29 total IP; League Avg: .387 — second Percentile.
Right-handed batters are hitting .317 (44-for-139) against Luke Weaver this season — 8th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 29 total IP; League Avg: .251 — fifth Percentile.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Braves are 37-23 (.617) when allowing 2 or more home runs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .301.
The Braves are 14-9 (.609) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .269.
The Braves are 11-5 (.688) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .393.
The Braves are 4-1 (.800) after a win as underdogs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .451.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Reds are just 9-13 (.409) after a loss as favorites since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .591.
The Reds are just 19-45 (.297) after a road loss since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .449.
The Reds are 18-8 (.692) after a win as favorites since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .598.
The Reds are just 29-35 (.453) when they’ve scored in the first inning since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .645.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
Braves hitters have an OPS of .896 (732 PA’s) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .739.
Braves hitters are slugging .539 against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .417.
Braves hitters have an OPS of .817 (2,370 PA’s) against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .722.
Braves hitters have an OBP of .344 (2,370 PA’s) against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .317.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
Reds hitters have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of just 33% against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 40%.
Reds hitters are slugging 1.000 on the first pitch of at-bats over the last 14 days (12 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .599.
Reds hitters have a swing rate of just 26% on the first pitch of at-bats this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 30%.
The Reds batted just .298 on the first pitch of at-bats in 2022 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .336.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
The Braves pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 30% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
The Braves pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 21% of their games on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Braves pitchers have won 60% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Braves pitchers have won 42% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 32% against Reds pitchers over the last 14 days (12 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Reds pitchers have walked 886 of 9,148 batters (10%) since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Reds pitchers this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 35% against Reds pitchers over the last 30 days (27 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Reds vs. Braves Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Tejay Antone (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Justin Dunn (Reds): Shoulder, D60
- Douglas Ashcraft (Reds): Calf, D15
- Antonio Santillan (Reds): Back, D60
- Derek Law (Reds): Elbow, D15
- Connor Overton (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Nicholas Lodolo (Reds): Calf, D60
- Christian Greene (Reds): Hip, D15
- Reiver Sanmartin (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Vladimir Gutierrez (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Casey Legumina (Reds): Shoulder, D15
- Jesse Chavez (Braves): Shin, D15
- Dylan Lee (Braves): Shoulder, D15
- Max Fried (Braves): Forearm, D60
- Tyler Matzek (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Ehire Adrianza (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Kyle Wright (Braves): Shoulder, D60
- Kolby Allard (Braves): Oblique, D60
- Huascar Ynoa (Braves): Elbow, D60
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