- The Braves are -145 favorites vs the Royals
- Braves starting pitcher: Bryce Elder
- Royals starting pitcher: Kristofer Bubic
- Watch the game on BSKC
The Atlanta Braves (-145) visit Kauffman Stadium to take on the Kansas City Royals (+120) on Saturday, April 15, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Kansas City.
The Braves are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+110).
The Braves vs Royals Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Braves are 10-4 against the spread (ATS), while the Royals are 4-10 ATS.
Braves vs. Royals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Braves | -1.5 +110 | O 8.5 -115 | -145 |
| Royals | +1.5 -135 | U 8.5 -105 | +120 |
Braves vs Royals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Saturday‘s MLB matchup with 63.6% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Braves and Royals and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Braves Player Prop Bets Today:
- Ronald Acuna Jr. has hit the Hits Over in 8 of his last 11 games (+7.10 Units / 42% ROI)
- Ronald Acuna Jr. has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 10 of his last 14 games (+6.65 Units / 40% ROI)
- Austin Riley has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 9 of his last 11 games (+6.45 Units / 44% ROI)
- Ronald Acuna Jr. has hit the Total Bases Over in 10 of his last 14 games (+6.35 Units / 42% ROI)
- Ronald Acuna Jr. has hit the RBIs Over in 4 of his last 5 games (+6.15 Units / 123% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Royals players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Royals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- MJ Melendez has hit the Singles Under in his last 7 games at home (+7.00 Units / 52% ROI)
- Salvador Perez has hit the RBIs Under in his last 7 games at home (+7.00 Units / 46% ROI)
- Bobby Witt Jr. has hit the Hits Over in his last 4 games (+6.00 Units / 100% ROI)
- Vinnie Pasquantino has hit the Hits Under in 5 of his last 7 games at home (+5.75 Units / 66% ROI)
- Bobby Witt Jr. has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 6 of his last 7 games (+5.25 Units / 61% ROI)
Royals vs Braves Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Matt Olson | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -900 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Sean Murphy | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
| MJ Melendez | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Vaughn Grissom | 0.5 +900 | 0.5 -10000 |
Royals vs Braves Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Matt Olson | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Sean Murphy | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| MJ Melendez | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +135 |
| Vaughn Grissom | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
Royals vs Braves RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Matt Olson | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -300 |
| Sean Murphy | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -225 |
| MJ Melendez | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| Vaughn Grissom | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
Royals vs Braves Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Elder | 3.5 -185 | 3.5 +140 |
Braves Best Bets Today:
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 10 of their last 14 games (+6.60 Units / 43% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 6 of their last 7 away games (+5.55 Units / 59% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 6 of their last 7 away games (+5.20 Units / 58% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in their last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 92% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 6 of their last 7 away games (+4.75 Units / 44% ROI)
Royals Best Bets Today:
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Over in their last 4 games (+4.00 Units / 91% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in their last 4 games at home (+4.00 Units / 77% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 6 of their last 8 games at home (+3.85 Units / 39% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Moneyline in 3 of their last 7 games (+0.50 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 3 of their last 7 games (+0.45 Units / 6% ROI)
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 6-8 against the Run Line (-1.9 Units / -11.28% ROI).
- 10-4 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.7 Units / 19.83% ROI
- 8-6 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.3 Units / 8.47% ROI
- 6-8 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.95 Units / -19.09% ROI
Royals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Royals have gone 4-10 against the Run Line (-8.15 Units / -45.66% ROI).
- 4-10 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.35 Units / -31.07% ROI
- 8-6 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.35 Units / 8.71% ROI
- 6-8 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.75 Units / -17.97% ROI
Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .115 (3-for-26) against Bryce Elder’s non-fastballs this season — 9th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .224 — 90th Percentile.
Bryce Elder has an ERA of 0.00 (12.1 IP) this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 4.12 — 100th Percentile.
Left-handed batters are hitting just .143 (3-for-21) against Bryce Elder this season — 9th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .242 — 87th Percentile.
12 of Bryce Elder’s 13 strikeouts (92%) have come on non-fastballs this season — tied for highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 54% — 100th Percentile.
Royals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
5 of Kris Bubic’s breaking pitch strikeouts are backdoor on breaking pitches this season — most in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 4 total IP; League Avg: nan — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a swing rate of 48% (20/42) against Kris Bubic on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 4 total IP; League Avg: 30% — 100th Percentile.
Kris Bubic has not allowed a HR in any of his last five starts dating back to September 18th, 2022 — John Brebbia has the longest active streak at 11.
Opponents are hitting .477 (42-for-88) against Kris Bubic when he’s behind in the count since last season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 69 total IP; League Avg: .336 — second Percentile.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Royals
The Braves are 22-16 (.579) when allowing 2 or more home runs since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .290.
The Braves are 13-3 (.812) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Braves are 43-5 (.896) when scoring in the first inning since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .653.
The Braves are 98-43 (.695) when favorites since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .604.
Royals Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Royals are just 5-45 (.100) when their opponents score in the first inning since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .347.
The Royals are just 11-13 (.458) when favorites since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .604.
The Royals are just 29-58 (.333) on the road since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .470.
The Royals are just 21-27 (.438) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .576.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
Braves hitters are slugging .309 with two-strikes since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .263.
Braves hitters are slugging .444 against RHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .395.
Braves hitters have an OPS of .948 (322 PA’s) against starting pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .756.
Braves hitters have 8 strikeouts in 20 PA’s (40%) against LHP over the past seven days (4 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Royals Hitting Stats & Trends
Royals hitters have an OBP of just .269 (503 PA’s) this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .324.
The Royals are batting just .173 at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .251.
Royals hitters have an OBP of just .261 (280 PA’s) at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .326.
Royals hitters have an OPS of just .546 (280 PA’s) at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .743.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 28% in late innings since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Braves pitchers since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Royals Pitching Stats & Trends
Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Royals pitchers have walked 6 of 125 batters (5%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Opponents have a line drive rate of 28% against Royals pitchers this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Royals pitchers have walked 41 of 536 batters (8%) this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Royals vs. Braves Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Jacob Brentz (Royals): Elbow, D60
- Daniel A. Lynch (Royals): Shoulder, D15
- Angel Zerpa (Royals): Shoulder, D60
- Drew Waters (Royals): Oblique, D10
- Diego Hernandez (Royals): Shoulder, D60
- Raisel Iglesias (Braves): Shoulder, D15
- Michael Harris II (Braves): Back, D10
- Orlando Arcia (Braves): Wrist, D10
- Tyler Matzek (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Max Fried (Braves): Left Hamstring, D15
- Collin McHugh (Braves): Shoulder, D15
- Kolby Allard (Braves): Oblique, D60
- Travis d’Arnaud (Braves): Concussion, D7
- Huascar Ynoa (Braves): Elbow, D60
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