- The Royals are -125 favorites vs the Braves
- Braves vs Royals Over / Under today: 9.5 Runs
- Braves / Royals TV Channel: FDSO | FDSE | FDKC
The Atlanta Braves (+105) visit Kauffman Stadium to take on the Kansas City Royals (-125) on Tuesday, July 29, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 7:40pm EDT in Kansas City, MO, MO.
This season, the Braves are 45-60 against the spread (ATS), while the Royals are 55-52 ATS.
Braves vs Royals Starting Pitchers Today:
- Braves starting pitcher: Erick Fedde 3-10, 5.23 ERA
- Royals starting pitcher: Seth Lugo 7-5, 2.95 ERA
Braves vs. Royals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Braves | -1.5 +155 | O 9.5 -115 | +105 |
| Royals | +1.5 -190 | U 9.5 -105 | -125 |
Braves vs Royals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Royals will win Tuesday‘s MLB game with 54.2% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Braves Player Prop Bets Today:
- Michael Harris II has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 9 games (+14.30 Units / 159% ROI)
- Matt Olson has hit the Runs Under in 15 of his last 20 away games (+9.75 Units / 43% ROI)
- Matt Olson has hit the Walks Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+9.60 Units / 64% ROI)
- Austin Riley has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 15 away games (+8.20 Units / 33% ROI)
- Nick Allen has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 14 of his last 20 games (+7.70 Units / 28% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Royals players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Royals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Maikel Garcia has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 4 games (+13.50 Units / 338% ROI)
- Vinnie Pasquantino has hit the Runs Under in 17 of his last 20 games at home (+11.75 Units / 35% ROI)
- Bobby Witt Jr. has hit the Singles Under in 18 of his last 25 games at home (+11.10 Units / 42% ROI)
- Maikel Garcia has hit the Total Bases Over in 13 of his last 20 games at home (+9.40 Units / 47% ROI)
- Bobby Witt Jr. has hit the Hits Under in 20 of his last 25 games at home (+8.90 Units / 17% ROI)
Braves Best Bets Today:
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in 12 of their last 16 games (+9.80 Units / 55% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 19 of their last 31 away games (+5.52 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Team Total Under in 43 of their last 76 games (+5.35 Units / 6% ROI)
Royals Best Bets Today:
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 71 of their last 107 games (+32.45 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Under in 60 of their last 99 games (+18.10 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 34 of their last 53 games at home (+14.05 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Moneyline in 13 of their last 22 games (+4.65 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have covered the Run Line in 47 of their last 83 games (+4.65 Units / 4% ROI)
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Braves are 42-62 against the Run Line (-21.17 Units / -17.34% ROI).
- 45-60 when betting on the Moneyline for -40.63 Units / -25.45% ROI
- 46-52 when betting on the total runs Over for -11.3 Units / -9.7% ROI
- 52-46 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.8 Units / 1.57% ROI
Royals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Royals are 55-52 against the Run Line (-8.3 Units / -5.54% ROI).
- 52-55 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.5 Units / -2.73% ROI
- 43-63 when betting on the total runs Over for -25.37 Units / -21.75% ROI
- 63-43 when betting on the total runs Under for +15.6 Units / 13.14% ROI
Royals vs Braves Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ronald Acuna (ATL) | 0.5 +340 | 0.5 -450 |
| Matt Olson (ATL) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Austin Riley (ATL) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Sean Murphy (ATL) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
Royals vs Braves Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Vinnie Pasquantino (KC) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Matt Olson (ATL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Austin Riley (ATL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Jonathan India (KC) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +180 |
| Drake Baldwin (ATL) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +180 |
Royals vs Braves RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -185 |
| Ronald Acuna (ATL) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -185 |
| Austin Riley (ATL) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Vinnie Pasquantino (KC) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -190 |
| Maikel Garcia (KC) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
Royals vs Braves Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Seth Lugo (KC) | 4.5 -135 | 4.5 +105 |
| Erick Fedde (ATL) | 3.5 +125 | 3.5 -165 |
Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Erick Fedde had a strike rate of just 57% (522/908) in two strike counts in the 2024 season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — third Percentile.
Erick Fedde has allowed an OBP of .481 (106 PA’s) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 42 total IP; League Avg: .311 — 0 Percentile.
Hitters leading off the inning are hitting .409 (38-for-93) against Erick Fedde this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 42 total IP; League Avg: .250 — first Percentile.
Erick Fedde had a strike rate of just 50% (539/1,077) when behind in the count in the 2024 season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 61% — third Percentile.
Royals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .194 (12-for-62) against Seth Lugo on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .333 — 100th Percentile.
Seth Lugo has a first-pitch in-zone of 65% (296/455) this season — tied for best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 56% — 100th Percentile.
Seth Lugo has not struck out any hitters in 18 PA’s when going through the lineup the second time in a game over the last 14 days — lowest among AL Starters over the last two weeks; League Avg: 24% — second Percentile.
Seth Lugo has a first-pitch strike rate of 69% (313/455) this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 63% — 96th Percentile.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Royals
The Braves are just 15-26 (.366) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams this season They play the Royals (Ranks second runs allowed) today.
The Braves are just 11-21 (.344) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses this season They play the Royals (Ranks 29th runs scored) today.
The Braves are just 4-29 (.121) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .287.
The Braves are just 11-53 (.172) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .292.
Royals Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Royals were just 4-50 (.074) when they allowed 5 or more runs in the 2024 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .196.
The Royals are 46-0 (1.000) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .958.
The Royals are 17-3 (.850) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .713.
The Royals are just 2-44 (.043) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .089.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
Braves hitters are slugging .946 on the first pitch of at-bats over the last 14 days — best in MLB; League Avg: .580.
The Braves batted .326 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in 2023 — best in MLB; League Avg: .267.
The Braves are batting just .130 on pitches out of the zone this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .148.
Braves hitters slugged .521 against LHP in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .419.
Royals Hitting Stats & Trends
Royals hitters have struck out in just 19% of their PA’s this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Royals hitters have drawn walks in 6% of their PA’s against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Royals hitters have drawn walks in 7% of their PA’s this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Royals hitters have an OPS of just .865 (731 PA’s) with the pitcher behind in the count this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 1.067.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
Batters facing the Braves pitchers have struck out on pitches in the zone 42% of the time this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%. this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Braves pitchers since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Braves pitchers have walked 17% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the past seven days (6 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Batters facing the Braves pitchers have struck out on pitches in the zone 45% of the time since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%. since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Royals Pitching Stats & Trends
The Royals pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 87.3 MPH this month (22 games) (560 balls in play) — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.3
Royals pitchers have walked 12% of batters over the past seven days (6 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Batters facing the Royals pitchers have struck out on pitches in the zone 62% of the time over the last 14 days — highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%. over the last 14 days — highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Royals pitchers have an ERA of 3.55 (952.0 IP) this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.09.
More MLB Reading:
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