- The – are favorites vs the –
- Brewers starting pitcher: Freddy Peralta
- Blue Jays starting pitcher: Kevin Gausman
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The Milwaukee Brewers () visit Rogers Centre to take on the Toronto Blue Jays () on Thursday, June 1, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 1:07pm EDT in Toronto.
The – are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at ().
The Brewers vs Blue Jays Over/Under is total runs for the game.
This season, the Brewers are 29-26 against the spread (ATS), while the Blue Jays are 27-29 ATS.
Brewers vs. Blue Jays Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Brewers | O | ||
| Blue Jays | U |
Brewers vs Blue Jays Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Blue Jays will win Thursday‘s MLB matchup with 80.7% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Brewers and Blue Jays and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Brewers Player Prop Bets Today:
- Owen Miller has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 15 away games (+12.90 Units / 46% ROI)
- Owen Miller has hit the Total Bases Over in 18 of his last 26 games (+11.70 Units / 32% ROI)
- Owen Miller has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 13 of his last 15 away games (+11.55 Units / 63% ROI)
- Willy Adames has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 27 of his last 40 games (+10.90 Units / 21% ROI)
- Owen Miller has hit the Singles Over in 13 of his last 15 away games (+10.70 Units / 54% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Blue Jays players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Blue Jays Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Daulton Varsho has hit the RBIs Under in 21 of his last 23 games at home (+16.50 Units / 31% ROI)
- Daulton Varsho has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 16 of his last 18 games at home (+13.30 Units / 58% ROI)
- Whit Merrifield has hit the Runs Over in 14 of his last 22 games (+12.30 Units / 56% ROI)
- Danny Jansen has hit the RBIs Over in 9 of his last 13 games at home (+11.45 Units / 88% ROI)
- Daulton Varsho has hit the Runs Under in 15 of his last 17 games at home (+11.00 Units / 37% ROI)
Blue Jays vs Brewers Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kevin Kiermaier | 0.5 +750 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Daulton Varsho | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -900 |
| George Springer | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Tyler Heineman | 0.5 +1100 | 0.5 |
| Christian Yelich | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -2000 |
Blue Jays vs Brewers Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kevin Kiermaier | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +125 |
| Daulton Varsho | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +135 |
| George Springer | 1.5 +190 | 1.5 -250 |
| Tyler Heineman | 0.5 -130 | 0.5 +100 |
| Christian Yelich | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
Blue Jays vs Brewers RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kevin Kiermaier | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -300 |
| Daulton Varsho | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| George Springer | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| Tyler Heineman | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -375 |
| Christian Yelich | 0.5 +270 | 0.5 -375 |
Blue Jays vs Brewers Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Gausman | 7.5 -120 | 7.5 -110 |
| Freddy Peralta | 5.5 +125 | 5.5 -165 |
Brewers Best Bets Today:
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Team Total Under in 23 of their last 33 games (+11.55 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 22 of their last 33 games (+8.85 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Under in 27 of their last 49 games (+4.65 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 29 of their last 54 games (+2.55 Units / 4% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 3 of their last 5 away games (+1.20 Units / 22% ROI)
Blue Jays Best Bets Today:
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Team Total Under in 21 of their last 31 games (+9.80 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 15 of their last 21 games (+8.75 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 18 of their last 29 games (+7.45 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have covered the Run Line in 3 of their last 5 games (+0.80 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 3 of their last 5 games (+0.55 Units / 9% ROI)
Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Brewers have gone 26-29 against the Run Line (-4.45 Units / -6.57% ROI).
- 29-26 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.15 Units / 1.67% ROI
- 24-29 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.45 Units / -13.84% ROI
- 29-24 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.5 Units / 4.17% ROI
Blue Jays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Blue Jays have gone 27-29 against the Run Line (-4.35 Units / -6.21% ROI).
- 29-27 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.45 Units / -9.21% ROI
- 27-26 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.2 Units / -1.97% ROI
- 26-27 when betting on the total runs Under for -4 Units / -6.43% ROI
Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Freddy Peralta has a strike rate of just 61% (177/291) in two strike counts this season — 9th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — 12th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 31% (22/70) against Freddy Peralta this season — 8th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — 10th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .242 (8-for-33) against Freddy Peralta on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 6th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .349 — 91st Percentile.
Freddy Peralta has a strike rate of just 60% (440/733) in two strike counts since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 86 total IP; League Avg: 65% — first Percentile.
Blue Jays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Kevin Gausman has allowed an OBP of just .149 (161 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .235 — 96th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .087 (13-for-150) against Kevin Gausman with two-strikes this season — tied for 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .165 — 98th Percentile.
Kevin Gausman has allowed an OPS of just .249 (162 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .497 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .321 (17-for-53) against Kevin Gausman’s elevated fastball this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .219 — fifth Percentile.
Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Blue Jays
The Brewers are just 2-13 (.133) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .271.
The Brewers are 20-2 (.909) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .786.
The Brewers are 22-1 (.957) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .865.
The Brewers are 21-13 (.618) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Blue Jays Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers
The Blue Jays are 3-22 (.120) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .050.
The Blue Jays are 46-70 (.397) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .289.
The Blue Jays are 11-6 (.647) after a home win this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .533.
The Blue Jays are 13-14 (.481) after a win as underdogs since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .413.
Brewers Hitting Stats & Trends
Brewers hitters are slugging just .340 against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .423.
The Brewers are batting just .209 against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .258.
Brewers hitters have an OPS of just .626 (525 PA’s) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .751.
The Brewers are batting just .219 against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Blue Jays Hitting Stats & Trends
The Blue Jays are batting .266 on the road since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .241.
The Blue Jays are batting .376 on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .341.
The Blue Jays are batting .263 on the road since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .240.
Blue Jays hitters have 26 extra-base hits out of 103 total hits (just 25%) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Brewers Pitching Stats & Trends
Brewers pitchers have walked 2 of 105 batters (2%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the last 14 days (12 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Brewers pitchers have walked 31 of 484 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 21% this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 30% in close and late situations since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Blue Jays Pitching Stats & Trends
Blue Jays pitchers have walked 11 of 52 batters (21%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the past seven days (6 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Blue Jays pitchers have walked 18 of 116 batters (15%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the last 14 days (13 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Blue Jays pitchers have walked 34 of 240 batters (14%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the last 30 days (27 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Blue Jays pitchers have an ERA of 3.19 (223.0 IP) at home this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.18.
Blue Jays vs. Brewers Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Hyun Jin Ryu (Blue Jays): Elbow, D60
- Daniel Jansen (Blue Jays): Groin, D10
- Zachery Pop (Blue Jays): Hamstring, D15
- Santiago Espinal (Blue Jays): Hamstring, D10
- Chad Green (Blue Jays): Undisclosed, D60
- Mitchell White (Blue Jays): Elbow, D60
- Luis UrÃas (Brewers): Hamstring, D60
- Matthew Bush (Brewers): Shoulder, D15
- Eric Lauer (Brewers): Shoulder, D15
- Garrett Mitchell (Brewers): Shoulder, D60
- Wade Miley (Brewers): Lat Strain, D15
- Justin Wilson (Brewers): Elbow, D60
- Aaron Ashby (Brewers): Labrum, D60
- Jason Alexander (Brewers): Shoulder, D60
- Willy Adames (Brewers): Head, D7
- Brandon Woodruff (Brewers): Shoulder, D60
- Jacob Bukauskas (Brewers): Spine, D15
- Jesse Winker (Brewers): Neck, D10
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