- The Braves are -175 favorites vs the Brewers
- Brewers starting pitcher: Adrian Houser
- Braves starting pitcher: Yonny Chirinos
- Watch the game on BSSE
The Milwaukee Brewers (+145) visit Truist Park to take on the Atlanta Braves (-175) on Friday, July 28, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:20pm EDT in Atlanta.
The Braves are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+105).
The Brewers vs Braves Over/Under is 10 total runs for the game.
This season, the Brewers are 57-46 against the spread (ATS), while the Braves are 49-51 ATS.
Brewers vs. Braves Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Brewers | +1.5 -125 | O 10 -105 | +145 |
| Braves | -1.5 +105 | U 10 -115 | -175 |
Brewers vs Braves Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Friday‘s MLB matchup with 75.1% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Brewers and Braves and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Brewers Player Prop Bets Today:
- Christian Yelich has hit the Total Bases Over in 19 of his last 26 games (+14.10 Units / 53% ROI)
- Willy Adames has hit the Singles Under in 35 of his last 48 games (+13.30 Units / 17% ROI)
- Willy Adames has hit the RBIs Under in 19 of his last 22 away games (+12.15 Units / 24% ROI)
- Christian Yelich has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 25 of his last 37 games (+11.45 Units / 25% ROI)
- Brice Turang has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 12 of his last 13 away games (+10.75 Units / 57% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Braves Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Ozzie Albies has hit the Runs Over in 30 of his last 42 games (+16.75 Units / 33% ROI)
- Michael Harris II has hit the Hits Over in 32 of his last 40 games (+14.30 Units / 16% ROI)
- Ronald Acuna Jr. has hit the Runs Over in 16 of his last 18 games at home (+12.50 Units / 37% ROI)
- Ronald Acuna Jr. has hit the RBIs Under in 16 of his last 18 games (+12.35 Units / 35% ROI)
- Marcell Ozuna has hit the Total Bases Under in 13 of his last 14 games (+12.15 Units / 57% ROI)
Braves vs Brewers Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Eddie Rosario | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -750 |
| Matt Olson | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -300 |
| Christian Yelich | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -650 |
| Owen Miller | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Sean Murphy | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -750 |
Braves vs Brewers Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Eddie Rosario | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +175 |
| Matt Olson | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Christian Yelich | 1.5 +135 | 1.5 -175 |
| Owen Miller | 1.5 +195 | 1.5 -275 |
| Sean Murphy | 1.5 +200 | 1.5 -275 |
Braves vs Brewers RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Eddie Rosario | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Matt Olson | 0.5 -105 | 0.5 -125 |
| Christian Yelich | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Owen Miller | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Sean Murphy | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
Braves vs Brewers Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Adrian Houser | 3.5 -115 | 3.5 -115 |
| Yonny Chirinos | 2.5 -155 | 2.5 +120 |
Brewers Best Bets Today:
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Team Total Under in 50 of their last 81 games (+13.35 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Under in 55 of their last 97 games (+13.05 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 23 of their last 35 games (+11.90 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 49 of their last 81 games (+11.35 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the Run Line in 9 of their last 11 away games (+8.35 Units / 61% ROI)
Braves Best Bets Today:
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 58 of their last 100 games (+15.65 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 61 of their last 100 games (+13.40 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Team Total Over in 28 of their last 42 games (+11.65 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 17 of their last 23 games at home (+11.25 Units / 42% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in 29 of their last 48 games at home (+9.30 Units / 18% ROI)
Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Brewers have gone 49-54 against the Run Line (-8.55 Units / -6.61% ROI).
- 57-46 when betting on the Moneyline for +6.65 Units / 5.27% ROI
- 42-57 when betting on the total runs Over for -21.25 Units / -18.62% ROI
- 57-42 when betting on the total runs Under for +10.9 Units / 9.69% ROI
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 49-51 against the Run Line (-3.45 Units / -2.93% ROI).
- 64-36 when betting on the Moneyline for +6.35 Units / 3.75% ROI
- 52-45 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.55 Units / 2.32% ROI
- 45-52 when betting on the total runs Under for -12.2 Units / -11.1% ROI
Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Adrian Houser has thrown fastballs 72% of the time (779/1,086) this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 40 total IP; League Avg: 47% — 99th Percentile.
Adrian Houser has a first-pitch strike rate of just 49% (25/51) — 2nd lowest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 63% — second Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of just 17% (118/713) against Adrian Houser since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 104 total IP; League Avg: 26% — first Percentile.
Adrian Houser has thrown fastballs 75% of the time (169/224) with runners in scoring position this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 40 total IP; League Avg: 44% — 100th Percentile.
Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a two strike miss rate of just 14% (21/155) against Yonny Chirinos this season — lowest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 27% — first Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 17% (83/503) against Yonny Chirinos since last season — 2nd lowest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 28% — first Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 17% (83/503) against Yonny Chirinos since last season — lowest among in MLB; League Avg: 29% — first Percentile.
Yonny Chirinos has a strikeout rate of just 12% (31 SO in 262 PAs) this season — 3rd lowest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 25% — first Percentile.
Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Brewers are 14-4 (.778) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Brewers are 10-0 (1.000) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .786.
The Brewers are 30-14 (.682) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Brewers are just 0-42 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .050.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers
The Braves are 40-28 (.588) when allowing 2 or more home runs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .303.
The Braves are 16-15 (.516) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .274.
The Braves are 8-28 (.222) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .104.
The Braves are 31-43 (.419) when allowing 10 or more hits since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .273.
Brewers Hitting Stats & Trends
Brewers hitters are slugging just .221 with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .270.
The Brewers are batting just .225 against LHP since last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Brewers hitters have an OPS of just .462 (2,136 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .518.
Brewers hitters have 252 strikeouts in 934 PA’s (27%) against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
Braves hitters are slugging .533 against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .416.
Braves hitters have an OPS of .884 (833 PA’s) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .739.
Braves hitters are slugging .309 with two-strikes since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .266.
Braves hitters have an OPS of .816 (2,471 PA’s) against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .723.
Brewers Pitching Stats & Trends
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 40% with runners in scoring position over the last 14 days (12 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Brewers pitchers have walked 24 of 414 batters (6%) over the last 14 days (12 games) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 32% over the last 14 days (12 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 44% with two-strikes since last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
The Braves pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 22% of their games on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
The Braves pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 33% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% since last season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Braves pitchers have won 48% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Braves vs. Brewers Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Jesse Chavez (Braves): Shin, D60
- Dylan Lee (Braves): Shoulder, D60
- Max Fried (Braves): Forearm, D60
- Samuel Hilliard (Braves): Heel, D10
- Tyler Matzek (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Alex Minter (Braves): Shoulder, D15
- Ehire Adrianza (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Kyle Wright (Braves): Shoulder, D60
- Kolby Allard (Braves): Shoulder, D60
- Nick Anderson (Braves): Shoulder, D60
- Huascar Ynoa (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Brian Anderson (Brewers): Back, D10
- Eric Lauer (Brewers): Shoulder, D15
- Garrett Mitchell (Brewers): Shoulder, D60
- Darin Ruf (Brewers): Knee, D60
- Aaron Ashby (Brewers): Labrum, D60
- Brandon Woodruff (Brewers): Shoulder, D60
- John Sousa (Brewers): Shoulder, D60
- Ryan Tellez (Brewers): Forearm, D10
- Wade Miley (Brewers): Elbow, D15
- Jesse Winker (Brewers): Back, D10
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