- The Braves are -210 favorites vs the Brewers
- Brewers starting pitcher: Julio Teheran
- Braves starting pitcher: Bryce Elder
- Watch the game on BSSE
The Milwaukee Brewers (+170) visit Truist Park to take on the Atlanta Braves (-210) on Saturday, July 29, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:20pm EDT in Atlanta.
The Braves are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-105).
The Brewers vs Braves Over/Under is 10 total runs for the game.
This season, the Brewers are 57-47 against the spread (ATS), while the Braves are 50-51 ATS.
Brewers vs. Braves Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Brewers | +1.5 -115 | O 10 -110 | +170 |
| Braves | -1.5 -105 | U 10 -110 | -210 |
Brewers vs Braves Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Saturday‘s MLB matchup with 70.5% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Brewers and Braves and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Brewers Player Prop Bets Today:
- Willy Adames has hit the Singles Under in 36 of his last 49 games (+14.30 Units / 18% ROI)
- Willy Adames has hit the RBIs Under in 20 of his last 23 away games (+13.15 Units / 25% ROI)
- Christian Yelich has hit the Total Bases Over in 19 of his last 27 games (+12.80 Units / 46% ROI)
- Andruw Monasterio has hit the Runs Over in 10 of his last 14 away games (+11.75 Units / 84% ROI)
- Brice Turang has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 13 of his last 14 away games (+11.75 Units / 58% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Braves Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Ozzie Albies has hit the Runs Over in 31 of his last 43 games (+17.75 Units / 34% ROI)
- Michael Harris II has hit the Hits Over in 33 of his last 41 games (+15.30 Units / 17% ROI)
- Ronald Acuna Jr. has hit the Runs Over in 17 of his last 19 games at home (+13.50 Units / 38% ROI)
- Marcell Ozuna has hit the Total Bases Under in 13 of his last 15 games (+10.55 Units / 46% ROI)
- Ronald Acuna Jr. has hit the RBIs Under in 16 of his last 19 games (+10.50 Units / 28% ROI)
Braves vs Brewers Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Eddie Rosario | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -650 |
| Abraham Toro-Hernandez | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Matt Olson | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -275 |
| Christian Yelich | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
| William Contreras | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
Braves vs Brewers Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Eddie Rosario | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Abraham Toro-Hernandez | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Matt Olson | 1.5 +200 | 1.5 -275 |
| Christian Yelich | 1.5 +150 | 1.5 -200 |
| William Contreras | 1.5 +195 | 1.5 -250 |
Braves vs Brewers RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Eddie Rosario | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Abraham Toro-Hernandez | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Matt Olson | 0.5 -110 | 0.5 -120 |
| Christian Yelich | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| William Contreras | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
Braves vs Brewers Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Elder | 3.5 -190 | 3.5 +145 |
| Julio Teheran | 3.5 -135 | 3.5 +100 |
Brewers Best Bets Today:
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Team Total Under in 50 of their last 82 games (+12.10 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Under in 55 of their last 98 games (+12.00 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 23 of their last 36 games (+10.90 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 49 of their last 82 games (+10.15 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the Run Line in 9 of their last 12 away games (+7.10 Units / 47% ROI)
Braves Best Bets Today:
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 59 of their last 101 games (+16.65 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 62 of their last 101 games (+14.40 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Team Total Over in 29 of their last 43 games (+12.65 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 18 of their last 24 games at home (+12.30 Units / 44% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in 30 of their last 49 games at home (+10.30 Units / 19% ROI)
Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Brewers have gone 49-55 against the Run Line (-9.8 Units / -7.51% ROI).
- 57-47 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.65 Units / 4.44% ROI
- 43-57 when betting on the total runs Over for -20.25 Units / -17.56% ROI
- 57-43 when betting on the total runs Under for +9.85 Units / 8.67% ROI
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 50-51 against the Run Line (-2.4 Units / -2.02% ROI).
- 65-36 when betting on the Moneyline for +7.35 Units / 4.29% ROI
- 53-45 when betting on the total runs Over for +3.55 Units / 3.19% ROI
- 45-53 when betting on the total runs Under for -13.25 Units / -11.94% ROI
Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 19% (33/174) against Julio Teheran this season — tied for 13th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 40 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 92nd Percentile.
Julio Teheran has an average fastball velocity of just 89.6 MPH this season — 9th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 40 total IP; League Avg: 93.6 — fifth Percentile.
Julio Teheran has allowed a BABIP of .242 this season — tied for 9th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 40 total IP; League Avg: .295 — 95th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 28% (15/53) against Julio Teheran’s curve and slider this season — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 40 total IP; League Avg: 43% — third Percentile.
Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Bryce Elder has located his fastballs down 48% of the time (442/915) this season — 2nd highest among in MLB; League Avg: 29% — 96th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 63% (107/170) against Bryce Elder this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 55% (191/346) against Bryce Elder this season — 4th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — 95th Percentile.
Opponents have a two strike miss rate of just 20% (66/330) against Bryce Elder this season — tied for 9th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 14th Percentile.
Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Brewers are 10-0 (1.000) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .787.
The Brewers are 14-4 (.778) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Brewers are 30-14 (.682) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Brewers are 26-7 (.788) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .684.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers
The Braves are 40-28 (.588) when allowing 2 or more home runs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .303.
The Braves are 17-15 (.531) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .276.
The Braves are 8-28 (.222) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .103.
The Braves are 17-7 (.708) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Brewers Hitting Stats & Trends
Brewers hitters are slugging just .220 with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .270.
The Brewers are batting just .225 against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Brewers hitters have an OPS of just .460 (2,156 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .518.
Brewers hitters have 692 strikeouts in 2,645 PA’s (26%) against LHP since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
Braves hitters are slugging .532 against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .416.
Braves hitters have an OPS of .882 (837 PA’s) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .739.
Braves hitters are slugging .461 since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .402.
Braves hitters are slugging .474 against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .405.
Brewers Pitching Stats & Trends
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 29% in close and late situations since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 36% with runners in scoring position over the last 14 days (12 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes since the 2021 season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Brewers pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 88.6 MPH (2,461 batted balls) this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 89.1.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
The Braves pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 22% of their games on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Braves pitchers have won 47% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
The Braves pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 34% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Braves pitchers have won 40% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Braves vs. Brewers Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Jesse Chavez (Braves): Shin, D60
- Dylan Lee (Braves): Shoulder, D60
- Max Fried (Braves): Forearm, D60
- Samuel Hilliard (Braves): Heel, D10
- Tyler Matzek (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Alex Minter (Braves): Shoulder, D15
- Ehire Adrianza (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Kyle Wright (Braves): Shoulder, D60
- Kolby Allard (Braves): Shoulder, D60
- Nick Anderson (Braves): Shoulder, D60
- Huascar Ynoa (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Brian Anderson (Brewers): Back, D10
- Eric Lauer (Brewers): Shoulder, D15
- Garrett Mitchell (Brewers): Shoulder, D60
- Darin Ruf (Brewers): Knee, D60
- Justin Wilson (Brewers): Lat, D15
- Aaron Ashby (Brewers): Labrum, D60
- Brandon Woodruff (Brewers): Shoulder, D60
- John Sousa (Brewers): Shoulder, D60
- Ryan Tellez (Brewers): Forearm, D10
- Wade Miley (Brewers): Elbow, D15
- Jesse Winker (Brewers): Back, D10
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