- The Cubs are -120 favorites vs the Brewers
- Brewers starting pitcher: Janson Junk, 18.00 ERA
- Cubs starting pitcher: Adrian Sampson, 20.76 ERA
- Watch the game on MARQ
The Milwaukee Brewers (+100) visit Sloan Park to take on the Chicago Cubs (-120) on Sunday, March 12, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 4:05pm EDT in Mesa.
The Cubs are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+155).
The Brewers vs Cubs Over/Under is 10.5 total runs for the game.
During Spring Training, the Brewers are 4-7 against the spread (ATS), while the Cubs are 8-3 ATS.
Brewers vs. Cubs Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Brewers | +1.5 -190 | O 10.5 +100 | +100 |
| Cubs | -1.5 +155 | U 10.5 -120 | -120 |
Brewers vs Cubs Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Cubs will win Sunday‘s Spring Training matchup with 54.2% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Brewers and Cubs and up-to-date player injuries.
Bet now on Brewers vs Cubs and all games with BetMGM
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Brewers Player Prop Bets Today:
- Christian Yelich has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 6 of his last 9 games (+3.00 Units / 31% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cubs Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Christopher Morel has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 4 of his last 6 games (+1.60 Units / 23% ROI)
- Nick Madrigal has hit the Hits Over in 2 of his last 5 games (+0.90 Units / 18% ROI)
Brewers Best Bets Today:
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 23 of their last 36 away games (+9.10 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 30 of their last 52 games (+8.75 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Under in 11 of their last 14 games (+8.70 Units / 56% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Team Total Under in 8 of their last 10 games (+5.95 Units / 51% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 46 of their last 99 games (+5.90 Units / 4% ROI)
Cubs Best Bets Today:
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 48 of their last 85 games (+19.85 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 25 of their last 48 games (+17.45 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 50 of their last 85 games (+16.85 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Under in 65 of their last 108 games (+16.55 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 16 of their last 22 games (+16.35 Units / 65% ROI)
Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Brewers have gone 5-6 against the Run Line (-2.35 Units / -16.26% ROI).
- 4-7 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.65 Units / -34.32% ROI
- 4-5 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.65 Units / -13.52% ROI
- 5-4 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.7 Units / 5.79% ROI
Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Cubs have gone 8-3 against the Run Line (+5.4 Units / 36.36% ROI).
- 9-3 when betting on the Moneyline for +6.05 Units / 42.31% ROI
- 4-7 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.5 Units / -26.92% ROI
- 7-4 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.6 Units / 19.4% ROI
Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Janson Junk has limited playing time.
Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Adrian Sampson induced opposing hitters to ground into 14 double plays in 61 opportunities (23%) last season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 11% — 99th Percentile.
Adrian Sampson had a strikeout rate of just 6% (6/106) in PAs ending on inside fastballs last season — 6th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 14% — fourth Percentile.
Adrian Sampson induced opposing hitters to ground into 7 double plays in 18 opportunities (39%) over the last 30 days of the regular season (6 games) — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 12% — 100th Percentile.
Adrian Sampson allowed an OPS of just .772 (92 PA’s) when he’s behind in the count last season — 7th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 1.038 — 95th Percentile.
Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs
The Brewers are just 9-35 (.205) when allowing 10 or more hits last season — tied for 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .273.
The Brewers are just 67-8 (.893) when leading entering the 8th inning last season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .915.
The Brewers are 9-53 (.145) when trailing entering the 7th inning last season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .119.
The Brewers are just 61-13 (.824) when leading entering the 7th inning last season — 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .881.
Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers
The Cubs are just 9-41 (.180) when allowing 10 or more hits last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .273.
The Cubs are just 37-44 (.457) at home last season — tied for 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .532.
The Cubs are just 13-43 (.232) when allowing 2 or more home runs last season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .293.
The Cubs are just 19-106 (.152) when allowing 10 or more hits since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .266.
Brewers Hitting Stats & Trends
Brewers hitters averaged 4.05 pitches per plate appearance against RHP last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.89.
Brewers hitters averaged 4.06 pitches per plate appearance last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.89.
The Brewers batted just .230 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .265.
Brewers hitters struck out 440 times in 1,711 PA’s (26%) against LHP last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Cubs Hitting Stats & Trends
Cubs hitters have grounded into 54 double plays in 386 opportunities (14%) in close and late situations since the start of the 2021 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Cubs hitters slugged just .185 in lefty-lefty matchups last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .347.
The Cubs batted .371 on the first pitch of at-bats last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .336.
The Cubs are batting just .153 with two-strikes since the start of the 2021 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .168.
Brewers Pitching Stats & Trends
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% since the start of the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Opponents had a miss rate of 28% against Brewers pitchers last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 47% with two-strikes since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Brewers pitchers since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Cubs Pitching Stats & Trends
The Cubs pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 41% of their games last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
The Cubs pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 42% of their games at home last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 54%.
Cubs pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 15% when going through the lineup the third time in a game since the start of the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 19%.
Cubs pitchers have walked 1,137 of 12,365 batters (9%) since the start of the 2021 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Cubs vs. Brewers Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Ethan Roberts (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Codi Heuer (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Jason Alexander (Brewers): Shoulder, D60
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