- The Brewers are -145 favorites vs the Cubs
- Brewers starting pitcher: Corbin Burnes, – ERA
- Cubs starting pitcher: Marcus Stroman, – ERA
- Watch the game on MARQ
The Milwaukee Brewers (-145) visit Wrigley Field to take on the Chicago Cubs (+120) on Thursday, March 30, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 2:20pm EDT in Chicago.
The Brewers are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+125).
The Brewers vs Cubs Over/Under is 7 total runs for the game.
This season, the Brewers are 10-12 against the spread (ATS), while the Cubs are 14-8 ATS.
Brewers vs. Cubs Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Brewers | -1.5 +125 | O 7 -120 | -145 |
| Cubs | +1.5 -155 | U 7 +100 | +120 |
Brewers vs Cubs Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Brewers will win Thursday‘s MLB matchup with 60.3% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Brewers and Cubs and up-to-date player injuries.
Bet now on Brewers vs Cubs and all games with BetMGM
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Brewers Player Prop Bets Today:
- player high – away
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cubs Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- player high – home
Cubs vs Brewers Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jesse Winker | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Patrick Wisdom | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Nico Hoerner | 0.5 +950 | 0.5 -10000 |
| Christian Yelich | 0.5 +750 | 0.5 -3000 |
| William Contreras | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -2000 |
Cubs vs Brewers Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jesse Winker | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +145 |
| Patrick Wisdom | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -165 |
| Nico Hoerner | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Christian Yelich | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +160 |
| William Contreras | 0.5 -155 | 0.5 +110 |
Cubs vs Brewers RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jesse Winker | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -300 |
| Patrick Wisdom | 0.5 +290 | 0.5 -500 |
| Nico Hoerner | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -400 |
| Christian Yelich | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
| William Contreras | 0.5 +225 | 0.5 -350 |
Cubs vs Brewers Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Corbin Burnes | 6.5 -145 | 6.5 +100 |
| Marcus Stroman | 4.5 -175 | 4.5 +120 |
Brewers Best Bets Today:
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 23 of their last 36 away games (+9.10 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Under in 11 of their last 14 games (+8.70 Units / 56% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Team Total Under in 8 of their last 10 games (+5.95 Units / 51% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 46 of their last 99 games (+5.90 Units / 4% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 15 of their last 26 games (+2.90 Units / 9% ROI)
Cubs Best Bets Today:
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 48 of their last 85 games (+19.85 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 25 of their last 48 games (+17.45 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Under in 65 of their last 108 games (+16.55 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 16 of their last 22 games (+16.35 Units / 65% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 8 of their last 10 games (+6.00 Units / 53% ROI)
Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Brewers have gone 10-13 against the Run Line (-4.7 Units / -16.01% ROI).
- 10-12 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.6 Units / -16.14% ROI
- 8-12 when betting on the total runs Over for -5.45 Units / -21.25% ROI
- 12-8 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.35 Units / 13.35% ROI
Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Cubs have gone 14-8 against the Run Line (+6.35 Units / 22.36% ROI).
- 14-8 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.1 Units / 17.96% ROI
- 7-15 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.35 Units / -37.33% ROI
- 15-7 when betting on the total runs Under for +7.2 Units / 28.18% ROI
Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Corbin Burnes has located his fastball inside 60% of the time (316/530) since the start of the 2021 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 35% — 100th Percentile.
Corbin Burnes located his fastball inside 71% of the time (168/236) last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 34% — 100th Percentile.
Corbin Burnes located 67% of his pitches down (1,150/1,719) vs left-handed batters last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 100th Percentile.
Corbin Burnes threw fastballs down 64% of the time (151/236) last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 28% — 100th Percentile.
Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Marcus Stroman threw his curveball 40% of the time (431/1,073) against right-handed batters last season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total CB; League Avg: 15% — 98th Percentile.
Marcus Stroman has walked 13 of 246 batters (5%) with runners in scoring position since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 9% — 99th Percentile.
Marcus Stroman allowed a slugging percentage of just .246 (32 Total Bases / 130 ABs) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning last season — 6th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .397 — 96th Percentile.
Opponents batted just .169 (22-for-130) against Marcus Stroman when facing the leadoff batter in the inning last season — 10th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .240 — 93rd Percentile.
Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs
The Brewers are 16-10 (.615) when tied entering the 7th inning last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Brewers are 9-53 (.145) when trailing entering the 7th inning last season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .119.
The Brewers are just 61-13 (.824) when leading entering the 7th inning last season — 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .881.
The Brewers are just 9-35 (.205) when allowing 10 or more hits last season — tied for 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .273.
Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers
The Cubs are just 6-64 (.086) when trailing entering the 7th inning last season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .119.
The Cubs are just 37-44 (.457) at home last season — tied for 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .532.
The Cubs are just 13-43 (.232) when allowing 2 or more home runs last season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .293.
The Cubs are just 9-41 (.180) when allowing 10 or more hits last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .273.
Brewers Hitting Stats & Trends
The Brewers are batting just .226 against LHP since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .247.
Brewers hitters have 810 strikeouts in 3,250 PA’s (25%) against LHP since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Brewers are batting just .229 at home since the start of the 2021 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .247.
Brewers hitters chased 12% of pitches out of the zone on the first pitch of at-bats last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 16%.
Cubs Hitting Stats & Trends
The Cubs are batting just .153 with two-strikes since the start of the 2021 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .168.
Cubs hitters have grounded into 54 double plays in 386 opportunities (14%) in close and late situations since the start of the 2021 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
The Cubs batted .371 on the first pitch of at-bats last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .336.
Cubs hitters put just 32% of their swings in play on the first pitch of at-bats last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
Brewers Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Brewers pitchers since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 47% with two-strikes since the start of the 2021 season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Brewers pitchers had a strikeout rate of 30% in close and late situations last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Cubs Pitching Stats & Trends
Cubs pitchers have walked 1,137 of 12,365 batters (9%) since the start of the 2021 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Cubs pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 15% when going through the lineup the third time in a game since the start of the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 19%.
The Cubs pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 42% of their games at home last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 54%.
The Cubs pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 44% of their games since the start of the 2021 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Cubs vs. Brewers Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Ethan Roberts (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Codi Heuer (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Seiya Suzuki (Cubs): Oblique, D10
- Kyle Hendricks (Cubs): Shoulder, D15
- Brandon Hughes (Cubs): Knee, D15
- Tyrone Taylor (Brewers): Elbow, D10
- Adrian Houser (Brewers): Groin, D15
- Justin Wilson (Brewers): Elbow, D15
- Aaron Ashby (Brewers): Labrum, D15
- Jason Alexander (Brewers): Shoulder, D60
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