- The Brewers are -125 favorites vs the Diamondbacks
- Brewers starting pitcher: Corbin Burnes
- Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Kenneth Kelly
- Watch the game on BSAZ
The Milwaukee Brewers (-125) visit Chase Field to take on the Arizona Diamondbacks (+105) on Tuesday, April 11, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40pm EDT in Phoenix.
The Brewers are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+125).
The Brewers vs Diamondbacks Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Brewers are 7-3 against the spread (ATS), while the Diamondbacks are 8-3 ATS.
Brewers vs. Diamondbacks Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
Brewers | -1.5 +125 | O 8.5 -105 | -125 |
Diamondbacks | +1.5 -155 | U 8.5 -115 | +105 |
Brewers vs Diamondbacks Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Brewers will win Tuesday‘s MLB matchup with 69.8% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Brewers and Diamondbacks and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Brewers Player Prop Bets Today:
- Kolten Wong has hit the Runs Under in his last 4 games (+4.00 Units / 38% ROI)
- Andrew McCutchen has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 100% ROI)
- Omar Narvaez has hit the Runs Under in his last 3 away games (+3.00 Units / 38% ROI)
- Christian Yelich has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 6 of his last 9 games (+3.00 Units / 31% ROI)
- Luis Urias has hit the RBIs Over in 1 of his last 3 away games (+0.10 Units / 3% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Seth Beer has hit the RBIs Under in his last 5 games at home (+5.00 Units / 40% ROI)
- Carson Kelly has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 4 games at home (+4.00 Units / 94% ROI)
- Jordan Luplow has hit the Runs Under in his last 4 games at home (+4.00 Units / 41% ROI)
- Cooper Hummel has hit the Singles Under in his last 3 games at home (+3.00 Units / 42% ROI)
- Nick Ahmed has hit the RBIs Over in 2 of his last 3 games at home (+2.80 Units / 93% ROI)
Diamondbacks vs Brewers Home Run Prop Bets Today
Over | Under | |
---|---|---|
Josh Rojas | 0.5 +875 | 0.5 -5000 |
Gabriel Moreno | 0.5 +1050 | 0.5 |
Christian Walker | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
Lourdes Gurriel Jr | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -2500 |
Corbin Carroll | 0.5 +750 | 0.5 -3000 |
Diamondbacks vs Brewers Total Hits Prop Bets Today
Over | Under | |
---|---|---|
Josh Rojas | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
Gabriel Moreno | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +145 |
Christian Walker | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +130 |
Lourdes Gurriel Jr | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
Corbin Carroll | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +130 |
Diamondbacks vs Brewers RBI Prop Bets Today
Over | Under | |
---|---|---|
Josh Rojas | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -350 |
Gabriel Moreno | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
Christian Walker | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
Lourdes Gurriel Jr | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
Corbin Carroll | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -300 |
Diamondbacks vs Brewers Strikeout Prop Bets Today
Over | Under | |
---|---|---|
Merrill Kelly | 5.5 -105 | 5.5 -125 |
Corbin Burnes | 5.5 -125 | 5.5 -105 |
Brewers Best Bets Today:
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 9 games (+5.35 Units / 49% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the Run Line in 6 of their last 9 games (+4.15 Units / 38% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Under in their last 4 games (+4.00 Units / 91% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 5 of their last 8 games (+3.40 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 3 of their last 4 games (+2.20 Units / 51% ROI)
Diamondbacks Best Bets Today:
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 10 games (+7.25 Units / 69% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the Run Line in 7 of their last 8 games (+6.50 Units / 64% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in their last 4 games (+4.25 Units / 101% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in their last 3 games (+3.40 Units / 97% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in their last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 88% ROI)
Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Brewers have gone 6-4 against the Run Line (+3.15 Units / 26.69% ROI).
- 7-3 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.95 Units / 32.24% ROI
- 4-6 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.75 Units / -24.12% ROI
- 6-4 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.85 Units / 17.45% ROI
Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Diamondbacks have gone 8-3 against the Run Line (+5 Units / 35.84% ROI).
- 7-4 when betting on the Moneyline for +6.25 Units / 54.59% ROI
- 6-4 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.5 Units / 12.1% ROI
- 4-6 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.35 Units / -19.75% ROI
Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Corbin Burnes has located his fastball inside 60% of the time (321/538) since the 2021 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 35% — 100th Percentile.
Corbin Burnes located 67% of his pitches down (1,150/1,719) vs left-handed batters in 2022 — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 100th Percentile.
Corbin Burnes has located his fastballs down 63% of the time (154/244) since last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 29% — 100th Percentile.
114 of Corbin Burnes’ 243 strikeouts (47%) came on cutters in 2022 — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 5% — 100th Percentile.
Diamondbacks Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Merrill Kelly has walked 5 of 20 right-handed batters (25%) this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — second Percentile.
Merrill Kelly has walked 8 of 42 batters (19%) this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 8% — first Percentile.
Merrill Kelly has a strike rate of just 55% (48/88) against right-handed batters this season — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — third Percentile.
Merrill Kelly has thrown low pitches 81% of the time (34/42) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 3 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 100th Percentile.
Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks
The Brewers are 92-74 (.554) on the road since the 2021 season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .465.
The Brewers are 65-16 (.802) when totaling 10 or more hits since the 2021 season — tied for 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .733.
The Brewers are 153-100 (.605) when favorites since the 2021 season — tied for 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .594.
The Brewers are 6-65 (.085) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .046.
Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers
The Diamondbacks are just 105-23 (.820) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .910.
The Diamondbacks are just 111-36 (.755) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .875.
The Diamondbacks are just 96-33 (.744) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .872.
The Diamondbacks are just 30-158 (.160) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .286.
Brewers Hitting Stats & Trends
Brewers hitters averaged 4.08 pitches per plate appearance against LHP in 2022 — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.89.
Brewers hitters are slugging just .377 against LHP since the 2021 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .407.
Brewers hitters have an OPS of just .536 (145 PA’s) on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .716.
Brewers hitters are averaging 4.06 pitches per plate appearance since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.89.
Diamondbacks Hitting Stats & Trends
Opponents have used a defensive shift against the Diamondbacks on 71% of their plate appearances this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.. *
Diamondbacks hitters chased 26% of pitches out of the zone against LHP in 2022 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 30%.
The Diamondbacks batted just .229 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in 2022 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .265.
Diamondbacks hitters have put 48% of their swings in play on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
Brewers Pitching Stats & Trends
Brewers pitchers had a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes in 2022 — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Brewers pitchers won 46% of games in which they allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home in 2022 — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Brewers pitchers since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Diamondbacks Pitching Stats & Trends
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% in close and late situations since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% in close and late situations since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Diamondbacks pitchers had a strikeout rate of just 18% in close and late situations in 2022 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Diamondbacks pitchers since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Diamondbacks vs. Brewers Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Joseph Mantiply (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D15
- Zachary Davies (Diamondbacks): Oblique, D15
- Kyle Lewis (Diamondbacks): Illness, D10
- Mark Melancon (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D60
- Cole Sulser (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D60
- Corbin Martin (Diamondbacks): Lat, D60
- Carson Kelly (Diamondbacks): Forearm, D10
- Luis UrÃas (Brewers): Hamstring, D10
- Tyrone Taylor (Brewers): Elbow, D10
- Adrian Houser (Brewers): Groin, D15
- Justin Wilson (Brewers): Elbow, D60
- Aaron Ashby (Brewers): Labrum, D60
- Jason Alexander (Brewers): Shoulder, D60
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