Brewers vs Diamondbacks Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Apr 11

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Apr 11, 2023, 3:31 PM
  • The Brewers are -125 favorites vs the Diamondbacks
  • Brewers starting pitcher: Corbin Burnes
  • Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Kenneth Kelly
  • Watch the game on BSAZ

The Milwaukee Brewers (-125) visit Chase Field to take on the Arizona Diamondbacks (+105) on Tuesday, April 11, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40pm EDT in Phoenix.

The Brewers are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+125).

The Brewers vs Diamondbacks Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.

This season, the Brewers are 7-3 against the spread (ATS), while the Diamondbacks are 8-3 ATS.

Brewers vs. Diamondbacks Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Brewers-1.5 +125O 8.5 -105-125
Diamondbacks +1.5 -155U 8.5 -115+105

Brewers vs Diamondbacks Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Brewers will win Tuesday‘s MLB matchup with 69.8% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Brewers and Diamondbacks and up-to-date player injuries.


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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Brewers Player Prop Bets Today:

  • Kolten Wong has hit the Runs Under in his last 4 games (+4.00 Units / 38% ROI)
  • Andrew McCutchen has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 100% ROI)
  • Omar Narvaez has hit the Runs Under in his last 3 away games (+3.00 Units / 38% ROI)
  • Christian Yelich has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 6 of his last 9 games (+3.00 Units / 31% ROI)
  • Luis Urias has hit the RBIs Over in 1 of his last 3 away games (+0.10 Units / 3% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Best Bets Today:

  • Seth Beer has hit the RBIs Under in his last 5 games at home (+5.00 Units / 40% ROI)
  • Carson Kelly has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 4 games at home (+4.00 Units / 94% ROI)
  • Jordan Luplow has hit the Runs Under in his last 4 games at home (+4.00 Units / 41% ROI)
  • Cooper Hummel has hit the Singles Under in his last 3 games at home (+3.00 Units / 42% ROI)
  • Nick Ahmed has hit the RBIs Over in 2 of his last 3 games at home (+2.80 Units / 93% ROI)

Diamondbacks vs Brewers Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Josh Rojas 0.5 +875 0.5 -5000
Gabriel Moreno 0.5 +1050 0.5
Christian Walker 0.5 +500 0.5 -1100
Lourdes Gurriel Jr 0.5 +700 0.5 -2500
Corbin Carroll 0.5 +750 0.5 -3000

Diamondbacks vs Brewers Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Josh Rojas 0.5 -250 0.5 +175
Gabriel Moreno 0.5 -200 0.5 +145
Christian Walker 0.5 -175 0.5 +130
Lourdes Gurriel Jr 0.5 -275 0.5 +195
Corbin Carroll 0.5 -165 0.5 +130

Diamondbacks vs Brewers RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Josh Rojas 0.5 +250 0.5 -350
Gabriel Moreno 0.5 +190 0.5 -250
Christian Walker 0.5 +165 0.5 -225
Lourdes Gurriel Jr 0.5 +165 0.5 -225
Corbin Carroll 0.5 +220 0.5 -300

Diamondbacks vs Brewers Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Merrill Kelly 5.5 -105 5.5 -125
Corbin Burnes 5.5 -125 5.5 -105
  • The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 9 games (+5.35 Units / 49% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the Run Line in 6 of their last 9 games (+4.15 Units / 38% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Under in their last 4 games (+4.00 Units / 91% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 5 of their last 8 games (+3.40 Units / 34% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 3 of their last 4 games (+2.20 Units / 51% ROI)
  • The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 10 games (+7.25 Units / 69% ROI)
  • The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the Run Line in 7 of their last 8 games (+6.50 Units / 64% ROI)
  • The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in their last 4 games (+4.25 Units / 101% ROI)
  • The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in their last 3 games (+3.40 Units / 97% ROI)
  • The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in their last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 88% ROI)

Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Brewers have gone 6-4 against the Run Line (+3.15 Units / 26.69% ROI).

  • 7-3 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.95 Units / 32.24% ROI
  • 4-6 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.75 Units / -24.12% ROI
  • 6-4 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.85 Units / 17.45% ROI

Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Diamondbacks have gone 8-3 against the Run Line (+5 Units / 35.84% ROI).

  • 7-4 when betting on the Moneyline for +6.25 Units / 54.59% ROI
  • 6-4 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.5 Units / 12.1% ROI
  • 4-6 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.35 Units / -19.75% ROI

Corbin Burnes has located his fastball inside 60% of the time (321/538) since the 2021 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 35% — 100th Percentile.

Corbin Burnes located 67% of his pitches down (1,150/1,719) vs left-handed batters in 2022 — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 100th Percentile.

Corbin Burnes has located his fastballs down 63% of the time (154/244) since last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 29% — 100th Percentile.

114 of Corbin Burnes’ 243 strikeouts (47%) came on cutters in 2022 — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 5% — 100th Percentile.

Diamondbacks Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Merrill Kelly has walked 5 of 20 right-handed batters (25%) this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — second Percentile.

Merrill Kelly has walked 8 of 42 batters (19%) this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 8% — first Percentile.

Merrill Kelly has a strike rate of just 55% (48/88) against right-handed batters this season — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — third Percentile.

Merrill Kelly has thrown low pitches 81% of the time (34/42) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 3 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 100th Percentile.

Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks

The Brewers are 92-74 (.554) on the road since the 2021 season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .465.

The Brewers are 65-16 (.802) when totaling 10 or more hits since the 2021 season — tied for 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .733.

The Brewers are 153-100 (.605) when favorites since the 2021 season — tied for 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .594.

The Brewers are 6-65 (.085) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .046.

Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers

The Diamondbacks are just 105-23 (.820) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .910.

The Diamondbacks are just 111-36 (.755) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .875.

The Diamondbacks are just 96-33 (.744) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .872.

The Diamondbacks are just 30-158 (.160) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .286.

Brewers hitters averaged 4.08 pitches per plate appearance against LHP in 2022 — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.89.

Brewers hitters are slugging just .377 against LHP since the 2021 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .407.

Brewers hitters have an OPS of just .536 (145 PA’s) on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .716.

Brewers hitters are averaging 4.06 pitches per plate appearance since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.89.

Opponents have used a defensive shift against the Diamondbacks on 71% of their plate appearances this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.. *

Diamondbacks hitters chased 26% of pitches out of the zone against LHP in 2022 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 30%.

The Diamondbacks batted just .229 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in 2022 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .265.

Diamondbacks hitters have put 48% of their swings in play on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.

Brewers pitchers had a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes in 2022 — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Brewers pitchers won 46% of games in which they allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home in 2022 — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.

Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Brewers pitchers since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% in close and late situations since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% in close and late situations since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Diamondbacks pitchers had a strikeout rate of just 18% in close and late situations in 2022 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Diamondbacks pitchers since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Diamondbacks vs. Brewers Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Joseph Mantiply (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D15
  • Zachary Davies (Diamondbacks): Oblique, D15
  • Kyle Lewis (Diamondbacks): Illness, D10
  • Mark Melancon (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D60
  • Cole Sulser (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D60
  • Corbin Martin (Diamondbacks): Lat, D60
  • Carson Kelly (Diamondbacks): Forearm, D10
  • Luis Urías (Brewers): Hamstring, D10
  • Tyrone Taylor (Brewers): Elbow, D10
  • Adrian Houser (Brewers): Groin, D15
  • Justin Wilson (Brewers): Elbow, D60
  • Aaron Ashby (Brewers): Labrum, D60
  • Jason Alexander (Brewers): Shoulder, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.