- The Brewers are -125 favorites vs the Diamondbacks
- Brewers starting pitcher: Corbin Burnes
- Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Kenneth Kelly
- Watch the game on BSAZ
The Milwaukee Brewers (-125) visit Chase Field to take on the Arizona Diamondbacks (+105) on Tuesday, April 11, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40pm EDT in Phoenix.
The Brewers are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+125).
The Brewers vs Diamondbacks Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Brewers are 7-3 against the spread (ATS), while the Diamondbacks are 8-3 ATS.
Brewers vs. Diamondbacks Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Brewers | -1.5 +125 | O 8.5 -105 | -125 |
| Diamondbacks | +1.5 -155 | U 8.5 -115 | +105 |
Brewers vs Diamondbacks Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Brewers will win Tuesday‘s MLB matchup with 69.8% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Brewers and Diamondbacks and up-to-date player injuries.
Bet now on Brewers vs Diamondbacks and all games with BetMGM
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Brewers Player Prop Bets Today:
- Kolten Wong has hit the Runs Under in his last 4 games (+4.00 Units / 38% ROI)
- Andrew McCutchen has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 100% ROI)
- Omar Narvaez has hit the Runs Under in his last 3 away games (+3.00 Units / 38% ROI)
- Christian Yelich has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 6 of his last 9 games (+3.00 Units / 31% ROI)
- Luis Urias has hit the RBIs Over in 1 of his last 3 away games (+0.10 Units / 3% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Seth Beer has hit the RBIs Under in his last 5 games at home (+5.00 Units / 40% ROI)
- Carson Kelly has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 4 games at home (+4.00 Units / 94% ROI)
- Jordan Luplow has hit the Runs Under in his last 4 games at home (+4.00 Units / 41% ROI)
- Cooper Hummel has hit the Singles Under in his last 3 games at home (+3.00 Units / 42% ROI)
- Nick Ahmed has hit the RBIs Over in 2 of his last 3 games at home (+2.80 Units / 93% ROI)
Diamondbacks vs Brewers Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Josh Rojas | 0.5 +875 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Gabriel Moreno | 0.5 +1050 | 0.5 |
| Christian Walker | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Lourdes Gurriel Jr | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Corbin Carroll | 0.5 +750 | 0.5 -3000 |
Diamondbacks vs Brewers Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Josh Rojas | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Gabriel Moreno | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +145 |
| Christian Walker | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +130 |
| Lourdes Gurriel Jr | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Corbin Carroll | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +130 |
Diamondbacks vs Brewers RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Josh Rojas | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -350 |
| Gabriel Moreno | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
| Christian Walker | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Lourdes Gurriel Jr | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Corbin Carroll | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -300 |
Diamondbacks vs Brewers Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Merrill Kelly | 5.5 -105 | 5.5 -125 |
| Corbin Burnes | 5.5 -125 | 5.5 -105 |
Brewers Best Bets Today:
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 9 games (+5.35 Units / 49% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the Run Line in 6 of their last 9 games (+4.15 Units / 38% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Under in their last 4 games (+4.00 Units / 91% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 5 of their last 8 games (+3.40 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 3 of their last 4 games (+2.20 Units / 51% ROI)
Diamondbacks Best Bets Today:
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 10 games (+7.25 Units / 69% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the Run Line in 7 of their last 8 games (+6.50 Units / 64% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in their last 4 games (+4.25 Units / 101% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in their last 3 games (+3.40 Units / 97% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in their last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 88% ROI)
Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Brewers have gone 6-4 against the Run Line (+3.15 Units / 26.69% ROI).
- 7-3 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.95 Units / 32.24% ROI
- 4-6 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.75 Units / -24.12% ROI
- 6-4 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.85 Units / 17.45% ROI
Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Diamondbacks have gone 8-3 against the Run Line (+5 Units / 35.84% ROI).
- 7-4 when betting on the Moneyline for +6.25 Units / 54.59% ROI
- 6-4 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.5 Units / 12.1% ROI
- 4-6 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.35 Units / -19.75% ROI
Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Corbin Burnes has located his fastball inside 60% of the time (321/538) since the 2021 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 35% — 100th Percentile.
Corbin Burnes located 67% of his pitches down (1,150/1,719) vs left-handed batters in 2022 — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 100th Percentile.
Corbin Burnes has located his fastballs down 63% of the time (154/244) since last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 29% — 100th Percentile.
114 of Corbin Burnes’ 243 strikeouts (47%) came on cutters in 2022 — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 5% — 100th Percentile.
Diamondbacks Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Merrill Kelly has walked 5 of 20 right-handed batters (25%) this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — second Percentile.
Merrill Kelly has walked 8 of 42 batters (19%) this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 8% — first Percentile.
Merrill Kelly has a strike rate of just 55% (48/88) against right-handed batters this season — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — third Percentile.
Merrill Kelly has thrown low pitches 81% of the time (34/42) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 3 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 100th Percentile.
Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks
The Brewers are 92-74 (.554) on the road since the 2021 season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .465.
The Brewers are 65-16 (.802) when totaling 10 or more hits since the 2021 season — tied for 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .733.
The Brewers are 153-100 (.605) when favorites since the 2021 season — tied for 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .594.
The Brewers are 6-65 (.085) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .046.
Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers
The Diamondbacks are just 105-23 (.820) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .910.
The Diamondbacks are just 111-36 (.755) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .875.
The Diamondbacks are just 96-33 (.744) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .872.
The Diamondbacks are just 30-158 (.160) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .286.
Brewers Hitting Stats & Trends
Brewers hitters averaged 4.08 pitches per plate appearance against LHP in 2022 — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.89.
Brewers hitters are slugging just .377 against LHP since the 2021 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .407.
Brewers hitters have an OPS of just .536 (145 PA’s) on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .716.
Brewers hitters are averaging 4.06 pitches per plate appearance since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.89.
Diamondbacks Hitting Stats & Trends
Opponents have used a defensive shift against the Diamondbacks on 71% of their plate appearances this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.. *
Diamondbacks hitters chased 26% of pitches out of the zone against LHP in 2022 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 30%.
The Diamondbacks batted just .229 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in 2022 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .265.
Diamondbacks hitters have put 48% of their swings in play on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
Brewers Pitching Stats & Trends
Brewers pitchers had a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes in 2022 — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Brewers pitchers won 46% of games in which they allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home in 2022 — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Brewers pitchers since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Diamondbacks Pitching Stats & Trends
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% in close and late situations since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% in close and late situations since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Diamondbacks pitchers had a strikeout rate of just 18% in close and late situations in 2022 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Diamondbacks pitchers since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Diamondbacks vs. Brewers Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Joseph Mantiply (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D15
- Zachary Davies (Diamondbacks): Oblique, D15
- Kyle Lewis (Diamondbacks): Illness, D10
- Mark Melancon (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D60
- Cole Sulser (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D60
- Corbin Martin (Diamondbacks): Lat, D60
- Carson Kelly (Diamondbacks): Forearm, D10
- Luis UrÃas (Brewers): Hamstring, D10
- Tyrone Taylor (Brewers): Elbow, D10
- Adrian Houser (Brewers): Groin, D15
- Justin Wilson (Brewers): Elbow, D60
- Aaron Ashby (Brewers): Labrum, D60
- Jason Alexander (Brewers): Shoulder, D60
Bet now on Brewers vs Diamondbacks and all games with BetMGM
Bet on MLB Odds at BetMGM
At BetMGM, you can bet online with updated MLB betting odds. And with live sports betting, the best online sports betting and mobile sports betting (with the BetMGM Sportsbook app) experiences are at BetMGM.
