- The Brewers are -135 favorites vs the Diamondbacks
- Brewers starting pitcher: Brandon Woodruff (9-3), 3.31 ERA
- Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Kenneth Kelly (11-5), 2.96 ERA
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The Milwaukee Brewers (-135) visit Chase Field to take on the Arizona Diamondbacks (+115) on Thursday, September 1, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40pm EDT in Phoenix.
The Brewers are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+125).
The Brewers vs Diamondbacks Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Brewers are 67-59 against the spread (ATS), while the Diamondbacks are 74-52 ATS.
Brewers vs. Diamondbacks Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Brewers | -1.5 +125 | O 7.5 -120 | -135 |
| Diamondbacks | +1.5 -155 | U 7.5 +100 | +115 |
Brewers vs Diamondbacks Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Brewers will win Thursday‘s matchup with 51.0% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Brewers and Diamondbacks and up-to-date player injuries.
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Diamondbacks vs Brewers Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alek Thomas | 0.5 +875 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Carson Kelly | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Christian Walker | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -700 |
| Daulton Varsho | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Geraldo Perdomo | 0.5 +1050 | 0.5 |
Diamondbacks vs Brewers Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alek Thomas | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +120 |
| Carson Kelly | 0.5 -150 | 0.5 +105 |
| Christian Walker | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +135 |
| Daulton Varsho | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +120 |
| Geraldo Perdomo | 0.5 +100 | 0.5 -140 |
Diamondbacks vs Brewers RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alek Thomas | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -400 |
| Carson Kelly | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -300 |
| Christian Walker | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -225 |
| Daulton Varsho | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -300 |
| Geraldo Perdomo | 0.5 +333 | 0.5 -600 |
Diamondbacks vs Brewers Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Merrill Kelly | 5.5 -105 | 5.5 -135 |
| Brandon Woodruff | 6.5 +100 | 6.5 -145 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Brewers Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 60 of their last 109 games (+13.00 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 38 of their last 68 games (+3.37 Units / 4% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Diamondbacks: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 37 of their last 51 games (+23.70 Units / 41% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 29 of their last 52 games at home (+7.45 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 6 of their last 7 games (+6.70 Units / 90% ROI)
Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Brewers have gone 52-74 against the Run Line (-28.55 Units / -18.7% ROI).
- 67-59 when betting on the Moneyline for -19.7 Units / -9.76% ROI
- 62-58 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.15 Units / -0.83% ROI
- 58-62 when betting on the total runs Under for -9.1 Units / -6.56% ROI
Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Brewers have gone 74-52 against the Run Line (+19.15 Units / 11.82% ROI).
- 60-66 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.05 Units / 0.74% ROI
- 58-63 when betting on the total runs Over for -11.1 Units / -8.05% ROI
- 63-58 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.95 Units / -1.4% ROI
Brandon Woodruff: Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .041 (2 GB hits out of 49 GBs) against Brandon Woodruff with runners in scoring position since the start of last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 145 total IP; League Avg: .231 — 100th Percentile.
Left-handed hitters have a miss rate of 38% (158/416) against Brandon Woodruff this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 100th Percentile.
Brandon Woodruff has struck out 36% (75/207) of left-handed batters he faced this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 22% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .081 (5 GB hits out of 62 GBs) against Brandon Woodruff with runners in scoring position since the start of 2020 — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 175 total IP; League Avg: .231 — 99th Percentile.
Kenneth Kelly: Diamondbacks Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Merrill Kelly has allowed a just .206 SLG vs right-handed batters (tied for fifth best)– 95th Percentile and .800 vs left-handed batters over the last two weeks (second worst among qualified SPs)– second Percentile.
Merrill Kelly has allowed a slugging percentage of .800 (12 Total Bases / 15 ABs) vs left-handed batters — 2nd highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .361 — second Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .130 (38-for-292) against Merrill Kelly with two-strikes this season — 7th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .158 — 88th Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 21% (41/195) against Merrill Kelly on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 8th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 15th Percentile.
Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks
The Brewers are 7-46 (.132) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .085.
The Brewers are 7-44 (.137) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .114.
The Brewers are just 47-9 (.839) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .886.
The Brewers are 35-26 (.574) at home this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .527.
Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers
The Diamondbacks are just 101-30 (.771) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .876.
The Diamondbacks are just 10-31 (.244) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Diamondbacks are just 112-19 (.855) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .914.
The Diamondbacks are just 30-170 (.150) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .281.
Brewers Hitting Stats & Trends
Brewers hitters are averaging 4.11 pitches per plate appearance against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
The Brewers are batting just .075 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game over the last 14 days (10 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .261.
The Brewers are batting just .218 against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .246.
The Brewers are batting just .225 against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Diamondbacks Hitting Stats & Trends
Diamondbacks hitters have chased 25% of pitches out of the zone against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
The Diamondbacks are batting just .216 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .265.
Diamondbacks hitters have put 43% of balls in play to the right side of the field with runners in scoring position this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Diamondbacks hitters have put just 32% of balls in play to the left side of the field with runners in scoring position this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.
Brewers Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Brewers pitchers since the start of last season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 30% in close and late situations since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Diamondbacks Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 22% against Diamondbacks pitchers since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% in close and late situations since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Diamondbacks pitchers since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 18% in close and late situations this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Diamondbacks vs. Brewers Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Keynan Middleton (Diamondbacks): Ankle, D15
- Tyler Gilbert (Diamondbacks): Elbow, D60
- Kyle Nelson (Diamondbacks): Back, D15
- Humberto Castellanos (Diamondbacks): Elbow, D60
- Nicholas Ahmed (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D60
- Luis Perdomo (Brewers): Elbow, D15
- Trevor Gott (Brewers): Forearm, D15
- Alex J Jackson (Brewers): Wrist, D60
- Aaron Ashby (Brewers): Shoulder, D15
- Trevor Rosenthal (Brewers): Hamstring, D15
- Michael Brosseau (Brewers): Oblique, D10
- Miguel Sánchez (Brewers): Elbow, D60
- Jandel Gustave (Brewers): Forearm, D15
- Jonathan Davis (Brewers): Elbow, D10
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