- The Brewers (69-62) are -190 favorites vs the Diamondbacks (63-68)
- Brewers starting pitcher: Corbin Burnes (9-6), 2.84 ERA
- Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Madison Bumgarner (6-13), 4.87 ERA
- Watch the game on BSAZ
The Milwaukee Brewers (-190) visit Chase Field to take on the Arizona Diamondbacks (+155) on Saturday, September 3, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10pm EDT in Phoenix.
The Brewers are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-110).
The Brewers vs Diamondbacks Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Brewers are 67-61 against the spread (ATS), while the Diamondbacks are 76-52 ATS.
Brewers vs. Diamondbacks Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Brewers | -1.5 -110 | O 8 -115 | -190 |
| Diamondbacks | +1.5 -110 | U 8 -105 | +155 |
Brewers vs Diamondbacks Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Brewers will win Saturday‘s matchup with 51.0% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Brewers and Diamondbacks and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Brewers Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Jace Peterson has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 18 away games (+13.35 Units / 48% ROI)
- Rowdy Tellez has hit the Singles Under in 21 of his last 26 away games (+13.25 Units / 35% ROI)
- Jace Peterson has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 18 away games (+13.05 Units / 46% ROI)
- Hunter Renfroe has hit the Singles Over in 15 of his last 24 games (+10.75 Units / 45% ROI)
- Andrew McCutchen has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 16 away games (+10.35 Units / 50% ROI)
Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Christian Walker has hit the Hits Under in 44 of his last 91 games (+14.45 Units / 14% ROI)
- Daulton Varsho has hit the Hits Under in 15 of his last 24 games at home (+12.20 Units / 51% ROI)
- Christian Walker has hit the Runs Over in 15 of his last 20 games (+11.20 Units / 50% ROI)
- Christian Walker has hit the Singles Over in 16 of his last 22 games (+11.10 Units / 47% ROI)
- Jake McCarthy has hit the Runs Over in 12 of his last 17 games at home (+11.00 Units / 63% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Brewers Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 60 of their last 111 games (+10.55 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 38 of their last 70 games (+1.37 Units / 2% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Diamondbacks: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 39 of their last 53 games (+25.70 Units / 42% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 8 of their last 9 games (+8.90 Units / 94% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 23 of their last 38 games (+7.60 Units / 19% ROI)
Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Brewers have gone 52-76 against the Run Line (-30.55 Units / -19.75% ROI).
- 67-61 when betting on the Moneyline for -22.25 Units / -10.89% ROI
- 62-60 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.35 Units / -2.37% ROI
- 60-62 when betting on the total runs Under for -7.1 Units / -5.03% ROI
Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Brewers have gone 76-52 against the Run Line (+21.15 Units / 12.81% ROI).
- 62-66 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.25 Units / 2.25% ROI
- 58-65 when betting on the total runs Over for -13.3 Units / -9.49% ROI
- 65-58 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.05 Units / 0.04% ROI
Corbin Burnes: Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 43% (76/177) against Corbin Burnes on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of 36% (429/1,197) against Corbin Burnes this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — 100th Percentile.
Corbin Burnes has thrown low pitches 61% of the time (794/1,292) on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — 100th Percentile.
Corbin Burnes has located his fastball inside 71% of the time (138/195) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 35% — 100th Percentile.
Madison Bumgarner: Diamondbacks Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
31 of Madison Bumgarner’s breaking pitch strikeouts are backdoor on breaking pitches this season — most among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: nan — 100th Percentile.
31 of Madison Bumgarner’s 65 breaking pitch strikeouts (48%) have been backdoor this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 12% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .470 (31-for-66) against Madison Bumgarner on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .332 — second Percentile.
62 of Madison Bumgarner’s breaking pitch strikeouts are backdoor on breaking pitches since the start of last season — most in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 145 total IP; League Avg: nan — 100th Percentile.
Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks
The Brewers are 7-46 (.132) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .114.
The Brewers are 15-7 (.682) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Brewers are just 47-9 (.839) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .886.
The Brewers are just 7-28 (.200) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — tied for 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .277.
Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers
The Diamondbacks are just 114-19 (.857) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .914.
The Diamondbacks are just 103-30 (.774) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .876.
The Diamondbacks are just 10-31 (.244) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Diamondbacks are just 31-170 (.154) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .281.
Brewers Hitting Stats & Trends
The Brewers are batting just .316 on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .339.
The Brewers are batting just .224 against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .248.
The Brewers are batting just .070 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game over the last 14 days (10 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .254.
Brewers hitters are slugging just .373 against LHP since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .408.
Diamondbacks Hitting Stats & Trends
Diamondbacks hitters have an OBP of just .282 (592 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .324.
The Diamondbacks are batting just .216 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .265.
Diamondbacks hitters have chased 25% of pitches out of the zone against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Diamondbacks hitters have put just 34% of balls in play to the left side of the field since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.
Brewers Pitching Stats & Trends
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 47% with two-strikes since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
In games when their opponents have scored three or more runs in an inning, the Brewers have have still managed to win 41% of the time at home since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Diamondbacks Pitching Stats & Trends
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 18% in close and late situations this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 22% against Diamondbacks pitchers since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% in close and late situations since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% in close and late situations since the start of 2020 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Diamondbacks vs. Brewers Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Tyler Gilbert (Diamondbacks): Elbow, D60
- Humberto Castellanos (Diamondbacks): Elbow, D60
- Nicholas Ahmed (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D60
- Trevor Gott (Brewers): Forearm, D15
- Alex J Jackson (Brewers): Wrist, D60
- Aaron Ashby (Brewers): Shoulder, D15
- Trevor Rosenthal (Brewers): Hamstring, D15
- Christian Yelich (Brewers): Neck, Day-to-Day
- Michael Brosseau (Brewers): Oblique, D10
- Miguel Sánchez (Brewers): Elbow, D60
- Jandel Gustave (Brewers): Forearm, D15
- Jonathan Davis (Brewers): Elbow, D10
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