Brewers vs Diamondbacks Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Sep 3

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Sep 03, 2022, 9:20 AM
  • The Brewers (69-62) are -190 favorites vs the Diamondbacks (63-68)
  • Brewers starting pitcher: Corbin Burnes (9-6), 2.84 ERA
  • Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Madison Bumgarner (6-13), 4.87 ERA
  • Watch the game on BSAZ

The Milwaukee Brewers (-190) visit Chase Field to take on the Arizona Diamondbacks (+155) on Saturday, September 3, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10pm EDT in Phoenix.

The Brewers are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-110).

The Brewers vs Diamondbacks Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Brewers are 67-61 against the spread (ATS), while the Diamondbacks are 76-52 ATS.

Brewers vs. Diamondbacks Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Brewers-1.5 -110O 8 -115-190
Diamondbacks +1.5 -110U 8 -105+155

Brewers vs Diamondbacks Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Brewers will win Saturday‘s matchup with 51.0% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Brewers and Diamondbacks and up-to-date player injuries.


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Best Brewers Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Jace Peterson has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 18 away games (+13.35 Units / 48% ROI)
  • Rowdy Tellez has hit the Singles Under in 21 of his last 26 away games (+13.25 Units / 35% ROI)
  • Jace Peterson has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 18 away games (+13.05 Units / 46% ROI)
  • Hunter Renfroe has hit the Singles Over in 15 of his last 24 games (+10.75 Units / 45% ROI)
  • Andrew McCutchen has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 16 away games (+10.35 Units / 50% ROI)

Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Christian Walker has hit the Hits Under in 44 of his last 91 games (+14.45 Units / 14% ROI)
  • Daulton Varsho has hit the Hits Under in 15 of his last 24 games at home (+12.20 Units / 51% ROI)
  • Christian Walker has hit the Runs Over in 15 of his last 20 games (+11.20 Units / 50% ROI)
  • Christian Walker has hit the Singles Over in 16 of his last 22 games (+11.10 Units / 47% ROI)
  • Jake McCarthy has hit the Runs Over in 12 of his last 17 games at home (+11.00 Units / 63% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 60 of their last 111 games (+10.55 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 38 of their last 70 games (+1.37 Units / 2% ROI)
  • The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 39 of their last 53 games (+25.70 Units / 42% ROI)
  • The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 8 of their last 9 games (+8.90 Units / 94% ROI)
  • The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 23 of their last 38 games (+7.60 Units / 19% ROI)

Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Brewers have gone 52-76 against the Run Line (-30.55 Units / -19.75% ROI).

  • 67-61 when betting on the Moneyline for -22.25 Units / -10.89% ROI
  • 62-60 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.35 Units / -2.37% ROI
  • 60-62 when betting on the total runs Under for -7.1 Units / -5.03% ROI

Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Brewers have gone 76-52 against the Run Line (+21.15 Units / 12.81% ROI).

  • 62-66 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.25 Units / 2.25% ROI
  • 58-65 when betting on the total runs Over for -13.3 Units / -9.49% ROI
  • 65-58 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.05 Units / 0.04% ROI

Opponents have a miss rate of 43% (76/177) against Corbin Burnes on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 100th Percentile.

Opponents have a miss rate of 36% (429/1,197) against Corbin Burnes this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — 100th Percentile.

Corbin Burnes has thrown low pitches 61% of the time (794/1,292) on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — 100th Percentile.

Corbin Burnes has located his fastball inside 71% of the time (138/195) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 35% — 100th Percentile.

Madison Bumgarner: Diamondbacks Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

31 of Madison Bumgarner’s breaking pitch strikeouts are backdoor on breaking pitches this season — most among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: nan — 100th Percentile.

31 of Madison Bumgarner’s 65 breaking pitch strikeouts (48%) have been backdoor this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 12% — 100th Percentile.

Opponents are hitting .470 (31-for-66) against Madison Bumgarner on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .332 — second Percentile.

62 of Madison Bumgarner’s breaking pitch strikeouts are backdoor on breaking pitches since the start of last season — most in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 145 total IP; League Avg: nan — 100th Percentile.

Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks

The Brewers are 7-46 (.132) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .114.

The Brewers are 15-7 (.682) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Brewers are just 47-9 (.839) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .886.

The Brewers are just 7-28 (.200) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — tied for 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .277.

Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers

The Diamondbacks are just 114-19 (.857) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .914.

The Diamondbacks are just 103-30 (.774) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .876.

The Diamondbacks are just 10-31 (.244) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Diamondbacks are just 31-170 (.154) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .281.

The Brewers are batting just .316 on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .339.

The Brewers are batting just .224 against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .248.

The Brewers are batting just .070 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game over the last 14 days (10 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .254.

Brewers hitters are slugging just .373 against LHP since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .408.

Diamondbacks hitters have an OBP of just .282 (592 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .324.

The Diamondbacks are batting just .216 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .265.

Diamondbacks hitters have chased 25% of pitches out of the zone against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.

Diamondbacks hitters have put just 34% of balls in play to the left side of the field since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.

Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 47% with two-strikes since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

In games when their opponents have scored three or more runs in an inning, the Brewers have have still managed to win 41% of the time at home since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.

Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 18% in close and late situations this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Opponents have a miss rate of just 22% against Diamondbacks pitchers since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% in close and late situations since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% in close and late situations since the start of 2020 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Diamondbacks vs. Brewers Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Tyler Gilbert (Diamondbacks): Elbow, D60
  • Humberto Castellanos (Diamondbacks): Elbow, D60
  • Nicholas Ahmed (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D60
  • Trevor Gott (Brewers): Forearm, D15
  • Alex J Jackson (Brewers): Wrist, D60
  • Aaron Ashby (Brewers): Shoulder, D15
  • Trevor Rosenthal (Brewers): Hamstring, D15
  • Christian Yelich (Brewers): Neck, Day-to-Day
  • Michael Brosseau (Brewers): Oblique, D10
  • Miguel Sánchez (Brewers): Elbow, D60
  • Jandel Gustave (Brewers): Forearm, D15
  • Jonathan Davis (Brewers): Elbow, D10

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.