Brewers vs Diamondbacks Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Sep 4

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Sep 04, 2022, 8:43 AM
  • The Diamondbacks (63-69) are -160 favorites vs the Brewers (70-62)
  • Brewers starting pitcher: Jason Alexander (2-1), 4.96 ERA
  • Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Zachary Gallen (10-2), 2.53 ERA
  • Watch the game on BSAZ

The Milwaukee Brewers (+135) visit Chase Field to take on the Arizona Diamondbacks (-160) on Sunday, September 4, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Phoenix.

The Diamondbacks are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+125).

The Brewers vs Diamondbacks Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Brewers are 68-61 against the spread (ATS), while the Diamondbacks are 76-53 ATS.

Brewers vs. Diamondbacks Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Brewers+1.5 -155O 7.5 -105+135
Diamondbacks -1.5 +125U 7.5 -115-160

Brewers vs Diamondbacks Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Diamondbacks will win Sunday‘s matchup with 52.2% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Brewers and Diamondbacks and up-to-date player injuries.


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Best Brewers Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Jace Peterson has hit the Total Bases Over in 18 of his last 20 away games (+15.35 Units / 49% ROI)
  • Jace Peterson has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 20 away games (+15.05 Units / 48% ROI)
  • Hunter Renfroe has hit the Singles Over in 17 of his last 26 games (+12.90 Units / 50% ROI)
  • Jace Peterson has hit the Singles Over in 12 of his last 15 away games (+11.30 Units / 75% ROI)
  • Rowdy Tellez has hit the Singles Under in 20 of his last 26 away games (+10.65 Units / 28% ROI)

Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Christian Walker has hit the Hits Under in 45 of his last 93 games (+14.60 Units / 14% ROI)
  • Christian Walker has hit the Runs Over in 16 of his last 22 games (+11.20 Units / 46% ROI)
  • Daulton Varsho has hit the Hits Under in 15 of his last 25 games at home (+11.20 Units / 45% ROI)
  • Merrill Kelly has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 13 of his last 16 games (+10.80 Units / 57% ROI)
  • Josh Rojas has hit the Singles Over in 24 of his last 35 games (+10.00 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 61 of their last 112 games (+11.55 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 38 of their last 71 games (+0.02 Units / 0% ROI)
  • The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 40 of their last 54 games (+26.85 Units / 43% ROI)
  • The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 8 of their last 10 games (+7.90 Units / 75% ROI)
  • The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 23 of their last 39 games (+6.40 Units / 15% ROI)

Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Brewers have gone 53-76 against the Run Line (-29.55 Units / -18.97% ROI).

  • 68-61 when betting on the Moneyline for -21.25 Units / -10.3% ROI
  • 63-60 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.35 Units / -1.65% ROI
  • 60-63 when betting on the total runs Under for -8.3 Units / -5.83% ROI

Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Brewers have gone 76-53 against the Run Line (+20.1 Units / 12.1% ROI).

  • 62-67 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.25 Units / 1.55% ROI
  • 59-65 when betting on the total runs Over for -12.3 Units / -8.71% ROI
  • 65-59 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.15 Units / -0.8% ROI

The hardest ball hit off of Jason Alexander was just 105.5 MPH — tied for 9th hardest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 109.4

Zachary Gallen: Diamondbacks Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Left-handed batters are hitting just .151 (39-for-259) against Zac Gallen this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 65 total IP; League Avg: .233 — 100th Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .190 (98-for-516) against Zac Gallen this season — tied for 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .235 — 96th Percentile.

Zac Gallen has allowed an OPS of just .564 (570 PA’s) this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .669 — 96th Percentile.

Zac Gallen has not allowed a HR in any of his last eight starts dating back to July 22nd — George Kirby has the longest active streak at 9.

Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks

The Brewers are 35-26 (.574) at home this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .530.

The Brewers are 15-7 (.682) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Brewers are just 47-9 (.839) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .885.

The Brewers are just 8-28 (.222) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — tied for 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .278.

Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers

The Diamondbacks are just 103-31 (.769) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .875.

The Diamondbacks are just 114-20 (.851) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .914.

The Diamondbacks are just 46-12 (.793) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .885.

The Diamondbacks are just 31-170 (.154) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .281.

The Brewers are batting just .218 against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .246.

The Brewers are batting just .224 against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .248.

Brewers hitters are averaging 4.11 pitches per plate appearance against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.

The Brewers are batting just .318 on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .339.

Diamondbacks hitters have an OBP of just .285 (601 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .324.

The Diamondbacks have a winning percentage of just 33% on the road since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.

Diamondbacks hitters have put just 34% of balls in play to the left side of the field since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.

The Diamondbacks are batting just .219 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .264.

Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Brewers pitchers since the start of last season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 47% with two-strikes since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

In games when their opponents have scored three or more runs in an inning, the Brewers have have still managed to win 41% of the time at home since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.

Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 32% in close and late situations since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 18% in close and late situations this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Opponents have a miss rate of just 22% against Diamondbacks pitchers since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% in close and late situations since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% in close and late situations since the start of 2020 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Diamondbacks vs. Brewers Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Tyler Gilbert (Diamondbacks): Elbow, D60
  • Humberto Castellanos (Diamondbacks): Elbow, D60
  • Nicholas Ahmed (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D60
  • Trevor Gott (Brewers): Forearm, D15
  • Alex J Jackson (Brewers): Wrist, D60
  • Aaron Ashby (Brewers): Shoulder, D15
  • Trevor Rosenthal (Brewers): Hamstring, D15
  • Christian Yelich (Brewers): Neck, Day-to-Day
  • Michael Brosseau (Brewers): Oblique, D10
  • Miguel Sánchez (Brewers): Elbow, D60
  • Jandel Gustave (Brewers): Forearm, D15
  • Jonathan Davis (Brewers): Elbow, D10

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.