- The Dodgers are -150 favorites vs the Brewers
- Brewers starting pitcher: Corbin Burnes
- Dodgers starting pitcher: Michael Lynn
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The Milwaukee Brewers (+125) visit Dodger Stadium to take on the Los Angeles Dodgers (-150) on Thursday, August 17, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 10:10pm EDT in Los Angeles.
The Dodgers are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+135).
The Brewers vs Dodgers Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Brewers are 65-56 against the spread (ATS), while the Dodgers are 66-53 ATS.
Brewers vs. Dodgers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Brewers | +1.5 -160 | O 8.5 -115 | +125 |
| Dodgers | -1.5 +135 | U 8.5 -105 | -150 |
Brewers vs Dodgers Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Dodgers will win Thursday‘s MLB matchup with 65.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Brewers and Dodgers and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Brewers Player Prop Bets Today:
- Willy Adames has hit the RBIs Under in 26 of his last 29 games (+20.25 Units / 33% ROI)
- Willy Adames has hit the Runs Under in 20 of his last 25 away games (+12.25 Units / 29% ROI)
- William Contreras has hit the RBIs Over in 19 of his last 38 games (+11.35 Units / 30% ROI)
- Willy Adames has hit the Singles Under in 31 of his last 44 games (+11.00 Units / 16% ROI)
- Christian Yelich has hit the Total Bases Over in 26 of his last 44 games (+10.05 Units / 22% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Dodgers players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Dodgers Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Freddie Freeman has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 34 games (+16.75 Units / 38% ROI)
- Freddie Freeman has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 26 of his last 41 games (+10.40 Units / 21% ROI)
- Freddie Freeman has hit the RBIs Over in 22 of his last 46 games (+9.80 Units / 21% ROI)
- Freddie Freeman has hit the Total Bases Over in 22 of his last 34 games (+9.55 Units / 26% ROI)
- Mookie Betts has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 11 of his last 14 games (+8.70 Units / 55% ROI)
Dodgers vs Brewers Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Max Muncy | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -750 |
| Will Smith | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Mark Canha | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Carlos Santana | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -750 |
| Christian Yelich | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
Dodgers vs Brewers Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Max Muncy | 0.5 -135 | 0.5 +100 |
| Will Smith | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Mark Canha | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +125 |
| Carlos Santana | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Christian Yelich | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
Dodgers vs Brewers RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Max Muncy | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -225 |
| Will Smith | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Mark Canha | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -350 |
| Carlos Santana | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Christian Yelich | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
Dodgers vs Brewers Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Lance Lynn | 6.5 +100 | 6.5 -130 |
| Corbin Burnes | 6.5 +115 | 6.5 -150 |
Brewers Best Bets Today:
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Team Total Under in 59 of their last 99 games (+11.75 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 58 of their last 99 games (+9.85 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Under in 23 of their last 41 away games (+6.90 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 32 of their last 60 away games (+5.90 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the Run Line in 11 of their last 22 away games (+0.55 Units / 2% ROI)
Dodgers Best Bets Today:
- The Los Angeles Dodgers have covered the Run Line in 55 of their last 93 games (+19.15 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Team Total Over in 70 of their last 115 games (+18.75 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 58 of their last 99 games (+18.25 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Moneyline in 34 of their last 48 games at home (+10.15 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 11 of their last 15 games (+6.85 Units / 22% ROI)
Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Brewers have gone 53-68 against the Run Line (-19.2 Units / -12.89% ROI).
- 65-56 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.25 Units / 0.83% ROI
- 52-63 when betting on the total runs Over for -17.95 Units / -13.49% ROI
- 63-52 when betting on the total runs Under for +5.95 Units / 4.54% ROI
Dodgers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Dodgers have gone 66-53 against the Run Line (+15.25 Units / 10.59% ROI).
- 73-46 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.6 Units / 1.34% ROI
- 67-46 when betting on the total runs Over for +16.4 Units / 12.48% ROI
- 46-67 when betting on the total runs Under for -27 Units / -20.67% ROI
Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Corbin Burnes has thrown low pitches 62% of the time (857/1,391) on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 100th Percentile.
Corbin Burnes has located his fastballs down 60% of the time (130/216) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 28% — 100th Percentile.
Corbin Burnes has located his fastball inside 67% of the time (303/452) since last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 35% — 100th Percentile.
59 of Corbin Burnes’ 146 strikeouts (40%) have come on cutters this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 4% — 100th Percentile.
Dodgers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Lance Lynn allowed a batting average of just .213 vs right-handed batters (10th best)– 84th Percentile and .313 vs left-handed batters this season (worst among qualified SPs)– second Percentile.
Lance Lynn has allowed a slugging percentage of .585 (155 Total Bases / 265 ABs) vs left-handed batters this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .410 — second Percentile.
Lance Lynn has allowed an OBP of .373 (292 PA’s) vs left-handed batters this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .314 — fourth Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .285 (72-for-253) against Lance Lynn’s non-fastballs this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .224 — fifth Percentile.
Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Dodgers
The Brewers are 13-0 (1.000) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .789.
The Brewers are 30-16 (.652) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Brewers are just 16-59 (.213) when allowing 10 or more hits since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .272.
The Brewers are 29-9 (.763) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .689.
Dodgers Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers
The Dodgers are 160-26 (.860) when allowing 4 or fewer runs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .715.
The Dodgers are 34-15 (.694) after a road loss since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .452.
The Dodgers are 60-6 (.909) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .729.
The Dodgers are 18-71 (.202) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .129.
Brewers Hitting Stats & Trends
Brewers hitters are slugging just .221 with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .272.
Brewers hitters have an OPS of just .461 (2,485 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .520.
Brewers hitters have 716 strikeouts in 2,785 PA’s (26%) against LHP since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Brewers are batting just .226 against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .249.
Dodgers Hitting Stats & Trends
Dodgers hitters have 132 extra-base hits out of 286 total hits (46%) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Dodgers hitters have grounded into 16 double plays in 331 opportunities (5%) in close and late situations since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
Dodgers hitters have drawn 151 walks in 1,351 PA’s (11%) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Dodgers hitters have an OPS of .769 (3,319 PA’s) in innings 7-9 since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .695.
Brewers Pitching Stats & Trends
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 29% in close and late situations since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .235 against Brewers pitchers this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Dodgers Pitching Stats & Trends
The Dodgers pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 39% of their games this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Dodgers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 40% when going through the lineup the third time in a game over the last 14 days (9 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 19%.
Dodgers pitchers had an ERA of 2.54 (718.1 IP) on the road in 2022 — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.13.
The Dodgers have won 53% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the 2021 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Dodgers vs. Brewers Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Gavin Lux (Dodgers): Knee, D60
- Jonathon Feyereisen (Dodgers): Shoulder, D60
- Yency Almonte (Dodgers): Knee, D15
- Michael Grove (Dodgers): Lat, D15
- James Nelson (Dodgers): Elbow, D60
- Blake Treinen (Dodgers): Shoulder, D60
- Joseph Kelly (Dodgers): Forearm, D15
- Dustin May (Dodgers): Forearm, D60
- Jacob Marisnick (Dodgers): Hamstring, D60
- Jonathan Deluca (Dodgers): Hamstring, D10
- Walker Buehler (Dodgers): Elbow, D60
- Daniel Hudson (Dodgers): Knee, D60
- Shelby Miller (Dodgers): Neck, D60
- Alexander Reyes (Dodgers): Shoulder, D60
- Tyler Cyr (Dodgers): Shoulder, D60
- Eric Lauer (Brewers): Shoulder, D15
- Garrett Mitchell (Brewers): Shoulder, D60
- Darin Ruf (Brewers): Knee, D60
- Justin Wilson (Brewers): Lat, D60
- Aaron Ashby (Brewers): Labrum, D60
- Ryan Tellez (Brewers): Forearm, D10
- Blake Perkins (Brewers): Oblique, D10
- Jean Carlos Mejía (Brewers): Shoulder, D15
- Julio Teheran (Brewers): Hip, D15
- Jesse Winker (Brewers): Back, D10
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