Brewers vs Giants Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jul 17

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jul 17, 2022, 3:35 PM
  • The Giants (47-43) are -155 favorites vs the Brewers (50-42)
  • Brewers starting pitcher: Aaron Ashby (2-6), 4.36 ERA
  • Giants starting pitcher: Logan Webb (8-3), 2.82 ERA
  • Watch the game on NBCS-BA

The Milwaukee Brewers (+125) visit Oracle Park to take on the San Francisco Giants (-155) on Sunday, July 17, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 4:05pm EDT in San Francisco.

The Giants are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+135).

The Brewers vs Giants Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Brewers are 50-42 against the spread (ATS), while the Giants are 44-46 ATS.

Brewers vs. Giants Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Brewers+1.5 -160O 7.5 -110+125
Giants -1.5 +135U 7.5 -110-155

Brewers vs Giants Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Brewers will win Sunday‘s matchup with 67.6% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Brewers and Giants and up-to-date player injuries.


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Best Brewers Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Rowdy Tellez has hit the Singles Under in 18 of his last 21 games (+12.60 Units / 39% ROI)
  • Jace Peterson has hit the Total Bases Over in 14 of his last 16 away games (+11.35 Units / 47% ROI)
  • Jace Peterson has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 16 away games (+11.05 Units / 45% ROI)
  • Willy Adames has hit the Hits Under in 19 of his last 33 away games (+11.05 Units / 26% ROI)
  • Andrew McCutchen has hit the Hits Over in 27 of his last 35 games (+10.80 Units / 15% ROI)

Best Giants Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Giants players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Joc Pederson has hit the Hits Under in 7 of his last 8 games (+9.60 Units / 120% ROI)
  • Donovan Walton has hit the Total Bases Under in 8 of his last 10 games (+8.05 Units / 81% ROI)
  • Luis Gonzalez has hit the Singles Under in his last 8 games at home (+8.00 Units / 65% ROI)
  • Austin Slater has hit the Singles Over in 10 of his last 14 games (+7.85 Units / 54% ROI)
  • Brandon Belt has hit the Runs Under in 9 of his last 10 games at home (+7.10 Units / 36% ROI)

Giants vs Brewers Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Evan Longoria 0.5 +525 0.5 -1200
Joc Pederson 0.5 +600 0.5 -1600
Thairo Estrada 0.5 +850 0.5 -5000
Wilmer Flores 0.5 +600 0.5 -1600
Andrew McCutchen 0.5 +600 0.5 -1600

Giants vs Brewers Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Evan Longoria 0.5 -190 0.5 +130
Joc Pederson 0.5 -175 0.5 +120
LaMonte Wade Jr 0.5 -115 0.5 -120
Mike Yastrzemski 0.5 -140 0.5 -105
Thairo Estrada 0.5 -225 0.5 +150

Giants vs Brewers RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Evan Longoria 0.5 +180 0.5 -275
Joc Pederson 0.5 +195 0.5 -300
LaMonte Wade Jr 0.5 +290 0.5 -500
Mike Yastrzemski 0.5 +210 0.5 -300
Thairo Estrada 0.5 +210 0.5 -300

Giants vs Brewers Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Aaron Ashby 4.5 -120 4.5 -115
Logan Webb 5.5 +100 5.5 -145
  • The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 42 of their last 72 games (+13.80 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 21 of their last 31 games (+10.30 Units / 27% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Under in 9 of their last 12 games (+5.75 Units / 42% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the Run Line in 18 of their last 32 away games (+3.70 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 6 of their last 9 games (+3.20 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The San Francisco Giants have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 24 of their last 39 games at home (+12.85 Units / 30% ROI)
  • The San Francisco Giants have hit the Game Total Under in 13 of their last 22 games at home (+6.15 Units / 25% ROI)
  • The San Francisco Giants have covered the Run Line in 25 of their last 45 games (+3.85 Units / 7% ROI)
  • The San Francisco Giants have hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 8 games (+3.45 Units / 32% ROI)

Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Brewers have gone 39-53 against the Run Line (-16.65 Units / -14.94% ROI).

  • 50-42 when betting on the Moneyline for -10.2 Units / -7.23% ROI
  • 44-43 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.9 Units / -2.85% ROI
  • 43-44 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.6 Units / -4.54% ROI

Giants Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Brewers have gone 44-46 against the Run Line (-4.55 Units / -4.1% ROI).

  • 47-43 when betting on the Moneyline for -13.45 Units / -9.91% ROI
  • 43-42 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.45 Units / -3.49% ROI
  • 42-43 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.9 Units / -5.89% ROI

Opponents have a swing rate of just 36% (302/842) against Aaron Ashby in non-two strike counts this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 44 total IP; League Avg: 43% — first Percentile.

Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 61% (94/153) against Aaron Ashby this season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 44 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 97th Percentile.

Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of just 18% (5/27) against Aaron Ashby — best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 40% — 100th Percentile.

Hitters have swung at 57% of Aaron Ashby’s pitches in the zone (341/601) this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 44 total IP; League Avg: 67% — 0 Percentile.

Logan Webb: Giants Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Logan Webb has thrown low pitches 75% of the time (383/508) with two-strikes this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 51% — 100th Percentile.

Opponents are hitting .422 (27-for-64) against Logan Webb on low fastballs this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .270 — fifth Percentile.

Logan Webb has thrown low pitches 60% of the time (1,674/2,766) in non-two strike counts since the start of last season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — 97th Percentile.

Logan Webb has thrown low pitches 70% of the time (683/969) against right-handed batters this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 48% — 100th Percentile.

Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Giants

The Brewers are 29-23 (.558) on the road this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .479.

The Brewers are 8-4 (.667) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Brewers are just 3-20 (.130) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .288.

The Brewers are 27-8 (.771) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .708.

Giants Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers

The Giants are 15-6 (.714) when scoring in the first inning this season — tied for 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .661.

The Giants are 5-33 (.132) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .086.

The Giants are 5-31 (.139) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .116.

The Giants are 32-5 (.865) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .792.

Brewers hitters have 39 strikeouts in 122 PA’s (32%) against LHP over the last 14 days (9 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Brewers hitters have chased 25% of pitches out of the zone against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.

The Brewers are batting just .318 on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .340.

Brewers hitters have 601 strikeouts in 2,499 PA’s (24%) against LHP since the start of last season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Giants hitters have chased 25% of pitches out of the zone against RHP since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.

Giants hitters have an OBP of .325 (6,956 PA’s) against RHP since the start of last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .313.

The Giants are batting just .209 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .264.

The Giants are batting just .136 on pitches out of the zone since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .152.

Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 33% in close and late situations since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Brewers pitchers have walked 16 of 126 batters (13%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this month (14 games) — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 7%.

Brewers pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.5 MPH (2,173 batted balls) this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 88.7.

The Brewers pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 87.5 MPH this season (2,173 balls in play) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 88.7

Opponents have a groundball rate of 49% against Giants pitchers this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 47% against Giants pitchers since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Giants pitchers have walked 663 of 9,385 batters (7%) since the start of last season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

Giants pitchers have walked 49 of 804 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Giants vs. Brewers Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Curtis Casali (Giants): Oblique, D10
  • Thomas La Stella (Giants): COVID-19, D10
  • José Álvarez (Giants): Elbow, D60
  • Mauricio Llovera (Giants): Hip, D15
  • Brandon Crawford (Giants): Right Knee, D10
  • Colton Welker (Giants): Shoulder, D60
  • Samuel Delaplane (Giants): Forearm, D60
  • Zack Littell (Giants): Oblique, D15
  • Anthony DeSclafani (Giants): Ankle, D60
  • Matthew Boyd (Giants): Elbow, D60
  • Luis Perdomo (Brewers): Elbow, D15
  • Alex J Jackson (Brewers): Finger, D10
  • Tyrone Taylor (Brewers): Concussion, D7
  • Adrian Houser (Brewers): Flexor, D15
  • Jake O. Cousins (Brewers): Elbow, D60
  • Miguel Sánchez (Brewers): Elbow, D15
  • Justin Topa (Brewers): Elbow, D60
  • Freddy Peralta (Brewers): Lat, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.