- The Guardians are -135 favorites vs the Brewers
- Brewers starting pitcher: Wade Miley
- Guardians starting pitcher: Shane Bieber
- Watch the game on BSGL
The Milwaukee Brewers (+115) visit Progressive Field to take on the Cleveland Guardians (-135) on Friday, June 23, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Cleveland.
The Guardians are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+150).
The Brewers vs Guardians Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.
This season, the Brewers are 38-36 against the spread (ATS), while the Guardians are 35-39 ATS.
Brewers vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Brewers | +1.5 -185 | O 8 -120 | +115 |
| Guardians | -1.5 +150 | U 8 +100 | -135 |
Brewers vs Guardians Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Guardians will win Friday‘s MLB matchup with 70.2% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Brewers and Guardians and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Brewers Player Prop Bets Today:
- Rowdy Tellez has hit the Runs Under in 17 of his last 18 games (+14.60 Units / 39% ROI)
- Willy Adames has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 33 of his last 50 games (+11.65 Units / 18% ROI)
- Owen Miller has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 22 away games (+10.30 Units / 25% ROI)
- Owen Miller has hit the Singles Over in 17 of his last 22 away games (+9.95 Units / 32% ROI)
- Willy Adames has hit the Hits Under in 25 of his last 49 games (+9.40 Units / 17% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Guardians Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Josh Bell has hit the Runs Under in 22 of his last 25 games at home (+17.25 Units / 38% ROI)
- Steven Kwan has hit the Runs Over in 31 of his last 50 games (+13.25 Units / 26% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 25 games at home (+12.85 Units / 24% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the RBIs Over in 21 of his last 37 games (+12.15 Units / 33% ROI)
- Will Brennan has hit the Total Bases Over in 14 of his last 20 games (+11.70 Units / 45% ROI)
Guardians vs Brewers Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jesse Winker | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Steven Kwan | 0.5 +1250 | 0.5 |
| Amed Rosario | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Owen Miller | 0.5 +850 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Myles Straw | 0.5 +1400 | 0.5 |
Guardians vs Brewers Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jesse Winker | 0.5 -155 | 0.5 +120 |
| Steven Kwan | 1.5 +175 | 1.5 -250 |
| Amed Rosario | 1.5 +170 | 1.5 -225 |
| Owen Miller | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Myles Straw | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
Guardians vs Brewers RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jesse Winker | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
| Steven Kwan | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -350 |
| Amed Rosario | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| Owen Miller | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
| Myles Straw | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
Guardians vs Brewers Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Shane Bieber | 5.5 -140 | 5.5 +105 |
| Wade Miley | 2.5 -165 | 2.5 +125 |
Brewers Best Bets Today:
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Team Total Under in 33 of their last 52 games (+10.70 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Under in 38 of their last 68 games (+8.20 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 32 of their last 52 games (+7.60 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 6 games (+1.80 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 5 of their last 10 away games (+1.45 Units / 13% ROI)
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 37 of their last 58 games (+17.30 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Over in 16 of their last 23 games (+8.50 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 19 of their last 32 games (+7.30 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 17 games at home (+6.10 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 7 of their last 10 games at home (+4.20 Units / 36% ROI)
Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Brewers have gone 32-42 against the Run Line (-13.85 Units / -15.03% ROI).
- 38-36 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.45 Units / -3.67% ROI
- 31-40 when betting on the total runs Over for -13.4 Units / -16.33% ROI
- 40-31 when betting on the total runs Under for +6.05 Units / 7.49% ROI
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Guardians have gone 35-39 against the Run Line (-4.95 Units / -5.25% ROI).
- 36-38 when betting on the Moneyline for -9.3 Units / -9.89% ROI
- 27-43 when betting on the total runs Over for -20.3 Units / -25% ROI
- 43-27 when betting on the total runs Under for +13.45 Units / 16.46% ROI
Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 13% (14/107) against Wade Miley on pitches in the strike zone this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 29 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a first pitch chase rate of just 5% (5/101) against Wade Miley this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 29 total IP; League Avg: 16% — 0 Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a line drive rate of just 13% (15/113) against Wade Miley this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 29 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 100th Percentile.
Wade Miley has located his fastball inside 56% of the time (413/739) since the 2021 season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 158 total IP; League Avg: 34% — 99th Percentile.
Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Shane Bieber has located his fastball away 66% of the time (315/477) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 41% — 100th Percentile.
Shane Bieber has located his pitches away 60% of the time (864/1,440) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — 100th Percentile.
Shane Bieber has located his fastball away 60% of the time (875/1,467) since last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 42% — 100th Percentile.
Shane Bieber has located his pitches away 60% of the time (864/1,440) this season — highest among in MLB; League Avg: 47% — 100th Percentile.
Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Brewers are just 0-34 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .051.
The Brewers are 5-0 (1.000) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .783.
The Brewers are 7-3 (.700) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Brewers are 23-13 (.639) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers
The Guardians are 26-79 (.248) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .127.
The Guardians are 18-85 (.175) when trailing entering the 8th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .091.
The Guardians are 10-22 (.312) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .144.
The Guardians are 26-61 (.299) when allowing 5 or more runs since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .201.
Brewers Hitting Stats & Trends
The Brewers are batting just .220 against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .248.
The Brewers are batting just .227 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .264.
Brewers hitters are slugging just .223 with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .267.
Brewers hitters have an OBP of just .298 (940 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .327.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters have just 1,174 strikeouts in 6,565 PA’s (18%) against RHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Guardians hitters have just 1,652 strikeouts in 8,943 PA’s (18%) since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Guardians hitters have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of just 34% against RHP this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 40%.
Guardians hitters have missed on just 22% of swings since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Brewers Pitching Stats & Trends
Brewers pitchers have walked 52 of 418 batters (12%) over the last 14 days (11 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Brewers pitchers have walked 45 of 656 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Brewers pitchers have 86 three-pitch strikeouts this season — 3rd fewest in MLB.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Brewers pitchers since the 2021 season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Guardians pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Guardians pitchers have walked 137 of 2,127 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Guardians pitchers have an ERA of 3.25 (852.1 IP) against division opponents since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.06.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 24% against Guardians pitchers this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Guardians vs. Brewers Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Triston McKenzie (Guardians): Elbow, D15
- Peyton Battenfield (Guardians): Shoulder, D60
- Cal Quantrill (Guardians): Shoulder, D15
- William Brennan (Guardians): Shoulder, Day-to-Day
- Jake O. Cousins (Brewers): Shoulder, D15
- Eric Lauer (Brewers): Shoulder, D15
- Garrett Mitchell (Brewers): Shoulder, D60
- Darin Ruf (Brewers): Knee, D60
- Justin Wilson (Brewers): Elbow, D60
- Aaron Ashby (Brewers): Labrum, D60
- Jason Alexander (Brewers): Shoulder, D60
- Brandon Woodruff (Brewers): Shoulder, D60
- John Sousa (Brewers): Shoulder, D15
- Tyrone Taylor (Brewers): Elbow, D10
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